Dooms day hurricane Miami...(My thinking)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dooms day hurricane Miami...


A tropical distrabances moves off Africa on the 26th of August...The area shows some low pressure, with most of its convection to the south. Because of the SAL/northwestly wind shear. Foreacasters thinking is that chances will be very low for development. In has the system/wave/distrabance moves out into the Eastern Atlantic. Near the Cape verdes the system loses its convection. It becomes a dryed out wave as it moves across the Atlatnic. Kind of like hurricane Dennis of 2005...In which had almost no convection intill the caribbean.

The system is hard to track for 5 days as it moves west-northwestward into the Northern Caribbean/Central Atlantic. On September first of 2006 convection starts forming as the enviroment around the system is becoming much better for development. Forecast models show that a anticyclone should form over the area. In which the Gfs is showing a 30 knot decrease in shear. In so the forecast overall called for shear levels to go from 35 knots to 0 to 5 knots. With a Anticyclone being forecasted on line with Wilma of 2005. But the nhc forecasters say that it is impossible to trust the Gfs at this time...In so they over look the model.

The next day at 4pm est the second of Septemeber Visible/Ir satellite shows a low pressure. With convection forming right over it at minus 80c. The shear maps show that the shear at this time has decreased to 10 knots. With the Atmosphere has become very moist in faverable. Outflow Jets coming out of the north in south. The LLC forms at 23 north/72 west. The system at this time has turned westward or slightly west-northwest. Max mayfield is looking at the system in amazement at this time. In says that a recon is forecasted to look at the system early on the third of September.

At 11pm est the second the system has 2 knot shear over it. With outflow jets shooting all the way into the Eastern Pacific. In the Cdo is 600 miles wide. At this time The cyclone is centered at 24 north/75 west.

The recon gets into the system at 5am est on the third of September. In the cyclone is at 24.8 north/77. Max mayfield said that we wented to wait for the recon to make sure that the system was a tropical cyclone before issueing Advisories. At the time of the recon they found a 115 mph Major hurricane with pressure of 935 millibars. The Nhc races to issue Advisories in put warnings for the Miami area. The system slows down in a clear eye forms just hours after the first recon.

The second recon as the system is just hours away from making landfall on Miami. Finds something that will Amaze every one for the next 100 years. They find as it was centered at 25/79 or just off shore a cat5 hurricane with cloud tops of Wilma. In a eye 25 nmi wide...With a pressure of 875 millibars with 180 mph winds.

At this time the eye wall is making landfall on Miami. The skyscrappers are thrown to the ground half full. In people trying to get out of Miami. This beast of a hurricane will never be forgotten by the few survivers that had to live through hell for 6 hours. As the hurricane moves across Florida into the Gulf. The hurricane weakens from 180 mph to 140 mph...

The hurricane hits the Loop current it rebombs. The back up hurriacne center has tooken over at this time. In no word has been recovered out of the area. But the monster moves westward still...2 days later it bombs into a 200 mph monster over the loop current with 862 millibar pressure. But the hurricane then moves pass 25/90 in of the loop. In which the hurricane weakens.

But the hurricane this time reminds a cat5 of at least 160 mph winds. In makes landfall on Houston metro area on the 6th of September. Forecasters are Amazed more then ever with Katrina,Rita,Wilma. The shock is setting in.


500 billion dollars with the damage was caused. With 400k death toll in Miami alone. Fellowed by 250k for Houston.


2006 will not be forgotten ever!

[StormScanWx]

Did you yourself make this situation up?

You better hope that this never, ever happens. 550K deaths is not what we need!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes...I was walking down the street thinking about it...I hope it never happens.

[HURAKAN]

After that the United States will have to declare bankruptcy.

[johngaltfla]

After that the United States will have to declare bankruptcy.

We already have. Us taxpayers are just paying the bill.

[kevin]

Oh I do love the sensationalist what ifs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Floydbuster forecasted near the start of the 2005 season that a hurricane was going to hit New orleans. Not more then 3 months later it happen. I'm just saying.

[milankovitch]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

[Cookiely]

Dooms day hurricane Miami...


A tropical disturbance moves off Africa on the 26th of August. The area shows some low pressure, with most of its convection to the south. Because of the SAL/northwest wind shear, the forecasters are thinking that chances will be very low for development. As the system/wave/disturbance moves out into the Eastern Atlantic, near the Cape Verdes, the system loses its convection. It becomes a dried out wave as it moves across the Atlantic. Kind of like hurricane Dennis of 2005, which had very little convection until it approached the Caribbean.

The system is hard to track for 5 days as it moves west northwestward into the Northern Caribbean/Central Atlantic. On September first of 2006 convection starts forming as the environment around the system is becoming much better for development. Forecast models show that an anticyclone should form over the area. The GFS is showing a 30-knot decrease in shear. The forecast overall called for shear levels to go from 35 knots to 0 to 5 knots, with an anticyclone being forecast similar to Wilma of 2005. However, the NHC forecasters say that it is impossible to trust the GFS at this time, and so they over look the model.

The next day at 4pm est. the second of September Visible/Ir satellite shows a low pressure, with convection forming right over it at minus 80c. The shear maps show that the shear at this time has decreased to 10 knots. The atmosphere has become very moist and more conducive to development, with outflow jets coming out of the north and south. The LLC forms at 23 north/72 west. The system at this time has turned westward or slightly west-northwest. Max Mayfield is looking at the system in amazement at this time. He says that a recon is forecast to look at the system early on the third of September.

At 11pm est., the second the system has 2 knot shear over it, with outflow jets shooting all the way into the Eastern Pacific. The CDO is 600 miles wide, and at this time, the cyclone is centered at 24 north/75 west.

The recon gets into the system at 5am est. on the third of September. The cyclone is at 24.8 north/77. Max Mayfield said that we wanted to wait for the recon to make sure that the system was a tropical cyclone before issuing advisories. At the time of the recon, they found a 115 mph major hurricane with pressure of 935 mb... The NHC races to issue advisories and issue warnings for the Miami area. The system slows down, and a clear eye forms just hours after the first recon.

The second recon as the system is just hours away from making landfall on Miami, finds something that will amaze every one for the next 100 years. They find as it was centered at 25/79 or just off shore a cat5 hurricane with cloud tops of Wilma. With an eye 25 nmi wide, and with a pressure of 875 mb. with 180 mph winds.

At this time, the eye wall is making landfall on Miami. The skyscrapers are thrown to the ground half full. People are trying to get out of Miami. This beast of a hurricane will never be forgotten by the few survivors that had to live through hell for 6 hours. As the hurricane moves across Florida into the Gulf. The hurricane weakens from 180 mph to 140 mph...

The hurricane hits the loop current and it rebombs. The back up hurricane center has taken over at this time. No word has been recovered out of the area. However, the monster moves westward until two days later when it bombs into a 200 mph monster over the loop current with 862 mb pressure. However, the hurricane then moves pass 25/90 in of the loop. In which the hurricane weakens.

However, the hurricane this time remains a category 5 of at least 160 mph winds. It makes landfall on the Houston metro area on the 6th of September. Forecasters are amazed more then ever with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The shock is setting in.


500 billion dollars in damage was cause, with 400k death toll in Miami alone. Followed by 250k for Houston.


2006 will not be forgotten.
I doubt the death toll would be that high but I know when Charley was headed to Tampa, they had fifty thousand body bags waiting. Let us all pray this scenario never happens.

[Extremeweatherguy]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

Though under 400, 000 live within the city limits of Miami, you need to think about all the other communities so close by. West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Homestead, and in the case of a strong cat. 5 we could still have a cat. 4 on the west coast. Overall, over 1 million would most likely be affected in south Florida alone...but I agree in that I think that 400,000 would not die...worst case may be 50,000 - 100,000...but that is only if many people do not evacuate. If the storm made a double cat. 5 landfall in Houston, then I think that we would also see high damages and a high death toll. By population Houston is the 4th largest city in America, so not only would many more be affected, but many more may die. Also, Galveston bay is very susceptible to storm surge. Overall, this doomsday scenario would be very bad. lets pray that we never live to see it happen...[/i]

[Ixolib]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

Tourists!!

[HurricaneJoe22]

That scenario is flat-out crazy and won't ever happen.
A cyclone would never get that close without advisories being started sooner than you have them starting.

Also, Matt, you use the word "in" in place of the word "and" all the time.
stop it. it's driving me nuts.

[wxmann_91]

That scenario is flat-out crazy and won't ever happen.
A cyclone would never get that close without advisories being started sooner than you have them starting.

Also, Matt, you use the word "in" in place of the word "and" all the time.
stop it. it's driving me nuts.

2 letters - PM.

Matt, your scenario is pretty bad (and I pray it will never happen), because of course the explanations above. (Evacuations, NHC will probably see it and detect it early instead of when it is already at 115 mph, 875 mb at landfall and 840 in GOM can't happen, won't be 400,000 dead, hurricane will last much longer than six hours unless it's Tracy-sized, etc.)

However, some food for thought is that a 550k death toll is not unrealistic in a NYC hurricane - nor is the thought of the U.S. declaring bankruptcy after the event.

[milankovitch]

I was just trying to put 400,000 in perspective, that's 25% of Miami-Dade County. While the storm will effect a large area. Just considering Florida here. I'm thinking in a Miami landfall catastropic wind damage is going to cause the majority of deaths and that would be restricted to a quarter to a third of Miami-Dade's area, or up to say 700,000-1,000,000 people. I'm ignoring the otherside of Florida because I think the death tolls there would be in the hundereds range. I'm trying to put this in the context of or scale up modern hurricanes, in that case I just can't see a death toll in the tens of thousands. Which is kind of hard since there is no past storm like the one being considered. In the case of Florida a factor that I'm also considering is that there would be no where to go to avoid serious damage. Making a serious best guess (were I to bet money) I think 5,000 at the very most for a large 175mph hurricane worst case Houston or Miami landfall. So I guess 10,000 if a hurricane were to hit both areas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That scenario is flat-out crazy and won't ever happen.
A cyclone would never get that close without advisories being started sooner than you have them starting.

Also, Matt, you use the word "in" in place of the word "and" all the time.
stop it. it's driving me nuts.

2 letters - PM.

Matt, your scenario is pretty bad (and I pray it will never happen), because of course the explanations above. (Evacuations, NHC will probably see it and detect it early instead of when it is already at 115 mph, 875 mb at landfall and 840 in GOM can't happen, won't be 400,000 dead, hurricane will last much longer than six hours unless it's Tracy-sized, etc.)

However, some food for thought is that a 550k death toll is not unrealistic in a NYC hurricane - nor is the thought of the U.S. declaring bankruptcy after the event.

In a enviroment near what Wilma had. In the fact that the nhc likes to wait intill they get recon info to upgrade it doe's have a chance. Wilma has shown that it is possible.

Lets say late on the 1st it could of become a depression. By the 5am-11am time frame a tropical storm. In a hurricane 6 hours after(Katrina,Rita,Forest,Wilma)...You also have to remember not everytime there is super faverable set up that a monster is going to form. So there/nhc not likely(Don't like to) to jump on it.

[Vandora]

Ah, no offense or anything, but I SERIOUSLY hope this never happens!

That said, I am getting hurricane supplies for my birthday in Feb. from my parents for a reason! (Better weather radio, heavy duty flashlights, etc.) 2006 doesn't feel too good in my gut for us.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ah, no offense or anything, but I SERIOUSLY hope this never happens!

That said, I am getting hurricane supplies for my birthday in Feb. from my parents for a reason! (Better weather radio, heavy duty flashlights, etc.) 2006 doesn't feel too good in my gut for us.

Thats what my guts showing to...

[Derek Ortt]

the scenario is pure science fiction. The NHC would NEVER not issue advisories while a system is impacting land, when there is a well-defined eye, like there would be in a category 3 hurricane. Advisories would begin, even if they were waiting, when a consensus Dvorak reached 2.0 or 2.5

there would be 3 hourly recon scheduled well before as well

Houston will never fare worse than Lauderdale did in Wilma. IT'S 50 MILES INLAND.

The death toll is also extremely unrealistic. There is no way a hurricane in a non storm surge prone region is going to cause as many deaths as did Treblinka

[Windtalker1]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

Tourists!!

and lots and lots of BOAT PEOPLE

[Windtalker1]

Doomsday forecasters are predicting Miami to be wiped out on July 29th 2006 by a 225mph Hurricane. If I can find the article again, I will post it.