0z GFS VERY intresting

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok...well the GFS does not show the extreme cold it showed yesterday (20s for highs in Houston)..but here is what it does show...a complete pattern change. By that I mean a change from overall warm to overall cool starting this weekend. The next cold front should come this Tuesday with temps. back to the middle 60s and 30s at night, but we warm up on Thursday before a big change begins. A decent front swings through on Friday bringing temps. back to near normal next weekend. We see a brief warm up on Monday, but by Tuesday the 17th, the strongest front in weeks comes through and beyond that it looks like temps. stay below normal through the 24th and beyond. By that, I mean this pattern of 5-15 above normal reverses to 5-15 below. Expect more highs back below 60 and more lows back below 40. Also, expect more freeze threats with possible hard freeze threats after fronts on the 17th and the 22nd. As for wintry weather...the GFS 18Z run does not show much..but then again things can change. Keep in mind that last nights run showed a major winter storm and sometimes the GFS likes to pick up on past ideas once it is a week or less away from an event. I think our biggest worry with the next many fronts will not be seeing temps. warmer than predicted, but instead cooler. With temps. in Alaska and Canada expected to cool considerably and with a -NAO, I think that a decent arctic outbreak is quite possible...and if that happens, then the chance of wintry weather and extreme cold goes up. Overall, the point I am stressing is that winter is in no way over, and in fact it has only just begun. Hope you like this spring-like weather we are seeing, because we may struggle to find days like today and tomorrow for a long while to come starting this upcoming weekend. Enjoy the shorts and flip-flops while you can...

[Tyler]

Ok...well the GFS does not show the extreme cold it showed yesterday (20s for highs in Houston)..but here is what it does show...a complete pattern change. By that I mean a change from overall warm to overall cool starting this weekend. The next cold front should come this Tuesday with temps. back to the middle 60s and 30s at night, but we warm up on Thursday before a big change begins. A decent front swings through on Friday bringing temps. back to near normal next weekend. We see a brief warm up on Monday, but by Tuesday the 17th, the strongest front in weeks comes through and beyond that it looks like temps. stay below normal through the 24th and beyond. By that, I mean this pattern of 5-15 above normal reverses to 5-15 below. Expect more highs back below 60 and more lows back below 40. Also, expect more freeze threats with possible hard freeze threats after fronts on the 17th and the 22nd. As for wintry weather...the GFS 18Z run does not show much..but then again things can change. Keep in mind that last nights run showed a major winter storm and sometimes the GFS likes to pick up on past ideas once it is a week or less away from an event. I think our biggest worry with the next many fronts will not be seeing temps. warmer than predicted, but instead cooler. With temps. in Alaska and Canada expected to cool considerably and with a -NAO, I think that a decent arctic outbreak is quite possible...and if that happens, then the chance of wintry weather and extreme cold goes up. Overall, the point I am stressing is that winter is in no way over, and in fact it has only just begun. Hope you like this spring-like weather we are seeing, because we may struggle to find days like today and tomorrow for a long while to come starting this upcoming weekend. Enjoy the shorts and flip-flops while you can...

I agree. These string of days of much above average temps are about up. I bet by this weekend, we may be finally entering a bit cooler and wetter pattern. Although temperatures are not looking really that cold at all, I still think sometime this January, we'll get a hard freeze. We usually have one once a year anyway.

[Stephanie]

Fortunately, it seems like today and tomorrow SE CO, OK and AR will be seeing some precipitation - either rain or snow. That should help with some of the wildfires. That storm is tapping into the Gulf for once!

[WaitingForSiren]

Not to downsize the situation in Texas and Oklahoma and the drought across many other areas, but the good thing is that the areas worst affected are the ones that typically see a lot of precipitation later in the winter and in the spring. Texas almost always has flooding problems, and places in the southern plains or mid mississippi valley get a lot of rain come spring or early summer, so I dont think anybody should panic.

[gboudx]

Not to downsize the situation in Texas and Oklahoma and the drought across many other areas, but the good thing is that the areas worst affected are the ones that typically see a lot of precipitation later in the winter and in the spring. Texas almost always has flooding problems, and places in the southern plains or mid mississippi valley get a lot of rain come spring or early summer, so I dont think anybody should panic.

Yes, normally. But these problems exist because last Spring/early Summer did not produce the rains they normally do. Problems is, getting rain in Spring/early Summer means dealing with Severe weather usually.

[txtwister]

Exactly - Here in North Texas we did not have a typical Spring/Summer last year and that is the issue. We did not get our thunderstorms and showers. We need rain so badly as do most folks in the Southern Plains. This is not a recent issue, this is an issue that has been going on for almost a year now. At this point I do not care if we get the cold or winter precip. anymore, we just need the rain.

[WaitingForSiren]

Well, the 03 summer in Minnesota was very dry, almost record dry I believe. We had a major rainstorm on june 24 with 6+ inches at my house, but after that it was bone dry.

I guess my point is, weather patterns dont usually repeat, actually they almost never do. My hunch is that the southern plains will get a lot of rain this spring/summer. Also, wet summer/spring for the southern plains will a lot of tiems translate to a dry sunmmer for the uppser midwest. Like the 04 summer. So either way, somebody is going to be dry.

[Stephanie]

Fortunately, it seems like today and tomorrow SE CO, OK and AR will be seeing some precipitation - either rain or snow. That should help with some of the wildfires. That storm is tapping into the Gulf for once!

I also didn't want to minimize the situation by implying that this is the cure-all. I'm just happy to see it occur and hopefully it's a sign of good things to come.

What really blows my mind that with all of the moisture from Katrina and Rita that I don't believe any of it really reached the Northern Texas/Oklahoma areas, correct? The moisture pretty much went to the north and east.

[gboudx]

Stephanie, some of it reached Texas. For Rita, East Texas got some rain, and probably SE OK. Katrina had a lesser impact.

[jasons2k]

Rita dumped a whole 1" of rain at my house.......and that was it for weeks.

[Tyler]

Rita dumped about 4 inches of rain at my house here in Kingwood, and that was it for weeks...

[vbhoutex]

Rita dumped about 4 inches of rain at my house here in Kingwood, and that was it for weeks...

Wow!!!! Here in Spring Branch I got a whole .44" from Rita and we haven't seen too much since except for that one 6" rain we had.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

more wind then rain with rita, hooks airport gust to 44, bush iah 61mph, hardly any rain, hopefully tomorrow at about 60% chance.

[Tyler]

The GFS now has an 85% chance of rain for tonight. Maybe a bit more rain than previously thought? As far as timing goes, it looks like the rain will probably start tonight and move out tommorow morning. Another chance of rain on Friday!

I'm looking foward to some showers tonight!

[Kelarie]

Well it is snowing in Amarillo. Which I know isn't no where near any of us, but still kinda interesting. Texas is such a weather extreme state.

[Portastorm]

Well it is snowing in Amarillo. Which I know isn't no where near any of us, but still kinda interesting. Texas is such a weather extreme state.

Yup, I see that. Amarillo has a forecasted low tonight of 19 degrees ... yet is expected to hit a high temp on Wednesday of 70 degrees!

Talk about extremes .... wow!

[jasons2k]

Well it is snowing in Amarillo. Which I know isn't no where near any of us, but still kinda interesting. Texas is such a weather extreme state.

Yup, I see that. Amarillo has a forecasted low tonight of 19 degrees ... yet is expected to hit a high temp on Wednesday of 70 degrees!

Talk about extremes .... wow!

When I was at Tech in Lubbock standard attire was pretty much a coat/parka and gloves in the morning and a T-shirt in the afternoon. Everyone wore layers and peeled them off during the day.

During the tornado outbreak in April 1997, it was in the 70's still in Lubbock that evening and snowing in Amarillo - less than a 2-hour car trip away. By midnight it was snowing at my house in Lubbock with north winds gusting over 50mph. Go figure.

I also remember when I was in Dallas/Plano in 1989 - it went from the 70's to the freezing mark in about 20 minutes. It's the only time I watched my digitial thermometer drop in increments of 5+ degrees at a time - it was like I put an ice cube on the sensor.

[Tyler]

I also remember when I was in Dallas/Plano in 1989 - it went from the 70's to the freezing mark in about 20 minutes. It's the only time I watched my digitial thermometer drop in increments of 5+ degrees at a time - it was like I put an ice cube on the sensor.

Incredible stories! I'm guessing that event above was during the mega outbreak of December 1989, right? Talk about a blue 'norther...

[jasons2k]

I also remember when I was in Dallas/Plano in 1989 - it went from the 70's to the freezing mark in about 20 minutes. It's the only time I watched my digitial thermometer drop in increments of 5+ degrees at a time - it was like I put an ice cube on the sensor.

Incredible stories! I'm guessing that event above was during the mega outbreak of December 1989, right? Talk about a blue 'norther...

I initially thought it was, but now that I think about it it may have been in 1990 or 1991. I think it was January because I distinctly remember taking Christmas lights down from a tree in the front yard and I was wearing shorts. It was eerily calm, but I could hear this low rumble to the north getting louder and louder and then *wham* - the wind started howling from the north. I had to run inside and grab my coat and check out the thermometer.

Checking the thermometer lasted over 30 minutes because I couldn't believe what I was seeing, even though I knew it was already in the teens and snowing in Wichita Falls. When I went back outside I nearly froze to death.

It was a good old-fashioned blue 'norther, but I don't think it was *the* cold wave of '89 when this happened.

[Johnny]

Any model updates this afternoon?