SE Indian Ocean: TC Clare

[HURAKAN]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE IS HERE!

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
for coastal waters between Cape Leveque and Northwest Cape
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

At 11:00 PM WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare was located within 25 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal nine degrees South [17.9 S]
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal eight degrees East [118.8 E]
about 145 nautical miles north of Port Hedland,
200 nautical miles north northeast of Karratha .
Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots.
Maximum winds: 65 knots.
Central pressure: 965 hectopascals.

Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five degrees South [20.5 S]
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine degrees East [116.9 E]
about 95 nautical miles west of Port Hedland and 10 nautical miles north
northeast of Karratha at 8 PM on Monday.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds increasing to 70 knots
by Monday morning, further increasing to 100 knots by Monday afternoon. Combined
seas and swell to 7m rising to 10m by Monday afternoon.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 35 nautical miles of centre increasing to 40 nautical miles of centre by
Monday morning: Clockwise winds 45/60 knots. Scattered squalls to 80 knots.
Combined seas and swell to 6m.

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre increasing to 90 nautical miles of centre by
Monday afternoon: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots. Scattered squalls to 60 knots.
Combined seas and swell rising to 4m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere between Cape Leveque and Northwest Cape:
North to northeast winds 25/33 knots north of Wallal extending to Port Hedland
by midnight and to the remainder by Monday afternoon. Scattered squalls to 45
knots. Seas rising to 2.5m and swell to 2.5m.

______________________________________________________________________________

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for
coastal areas between Wallal and Onslow, extending inland to include
Pannawonica.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow southwest to Coral Bay,
and for inland parts of the Pilbara including Marble Bar and Tom Price.

At 11pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
270 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
375 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
moving southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further and move closer to the coast during
Monday. Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare is likely to be in the vicinity of
Karratha later in the afternoon or evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour will develop in coastal areas
between Wallal and Onslow during Monday morning, including communities at Port
Hedland and Karratha. These gales may extend inland during the day.

Very destructive winds are likely as the system crosses the Pilbara coast later
on Monday afternoon or evening, and may reach
260 kilometres per hour if the system further intensifies as expected.

Residents of Karratha and Dampier are warned of the potential of a very
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise
to significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding
and damaging waves.

Widespread heavy rain and flooding is likely in the Pilbara over the next few
days, with consequent traffic disabilities.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare at 11pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.9 South Longitude 118.8 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 965 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 180 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 3.

The next warning will be issued at 3AM WST Monday.

The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Mardie, including
those in, near or between the communities of Bidyadanga, Wallal, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and Pannawonica. Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking very good!

[P.K.]

so they go by gusts instead of sustained winds there?

Yes. The sustained winds on the BoM question pages are just there for guidelines.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking POWERFUL!

[HurricaneBill]

Yes. The sustained winds on the BoM question pages are just there for guidelines.

Personally, I think it's better to have it by gusts. Shows the full potential for wind damage.

[wxmann_91]

That's interesting. A huge difference between JTWC and BoM.

This looks like a Category 1 equivalent hurricane at best. Slight southerly shear over the southern portion of the storm.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MORE CIRCULAR RIGHT NOW!

[JonathanBelles]

where are you getting ur satelites form?

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 118.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 118.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.6S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.2S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.0S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.5S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 090900Z.//

[HURAKAN]

where are you getting ur satelites form?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

PASS THE CURSOR OVER GEO IR AND CLICK ON "1_KM"

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 6:00 am WST on Monday, 9 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for
coastal areas between Pardoo and Exmouth, extending inland to include
Pannawonica and Tom Price.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas south to Carnarvon, and for inland
parts of the Pilbara and adjacent Gascoyne including Paraburdoo and Gascoyne
Junction.

At 5am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
210 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
275 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify further and possibly reach category 4
intensity. Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare is likely to continue its southwestward
track today and be in the vicinity of Karratha and Dampier this evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Pardoo and Mardie today, including communities at Port Hedland and
Karratha. These gales may extend to Exmouth and to inland parts late in the day
and overnight.

Very destructive winds are likely as the system approaches then crosses the
Pilbara coast this evening or overnight, and may reach 240 kilometres per hour
if the system further intensifies as expected.

Residents of Karratha and Dampier are warned of the potential of a very
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise
to significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding
and damaging waves.

Widespread heavy rain and flooding is likely in the Pilbara and Gascoyne over
the next few days, with consequent traffic disabilities.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare at 5am WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 18.5 South Longitude 118.0 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 965 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 3.

The next warning will be issued at 9AM WST Monday.

The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Dampier,
Roebourne, Wickham and Whim Creek.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal areas between Pardoo and Mardie, including those
in near or between the communities of Bidyadanga, Wallal, Port Hedland, South
Hedland and Pannawonica. Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community
Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1901UTC 8 JANUARY 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude 18.2 south
Longitude 118.4 east
Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots.
Maximum winds: 65 knots.
Central pressure: 965 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained winds to 65 knots increasing
to 95 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas increasing to phenomenal with a
heavy swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 40 nautical miles by
09/1200UTC: 45/60 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy
swell.
Within 100 nautical miles of centre: winds above 34 knots with rough to very
rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

At 0600UTC 09 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.7 south 117.0 east
Central pressure 950 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 09 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.3 south 116.2 east
[over land]
Central pressure 940 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 0000 UTC 09 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like a 60 to 65 knot cyclone...Reasons there is strong curving into the center. With good outflow/inflow and good convection. Reasons to think its not quite a hurricane(Atlatnic) is because theres still seems to be no eye. I will go look at 85h data to see if it is developing one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No is is forming so I will go with the 55 knots...It looks worst then I thought.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[P.K.]

Looks like this is Clare on the 256km radar. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR162.shtml

[WindRunner]

Looks like this is Clare on the 256km radar. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR162.shtml

Well, that definately shows something like an eye forming.

[P.K.]

Gusts increased from 170 to 195km/hr. Pressure down 5hPa to 960hPa.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Monday, 9 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for
coastal areas between De Grey and Exmouth, extending inland to include
Pannawonica, Tom Price and Nanutarra. The CYCLONE WARNING between Pardoo and De
Grey has been cancelled

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas south to Wooramel Roadhouse, and
for inland parts of the Pilbara and adjacent Gascoyne including Paraburdoo and
Gascoyne Junction.

At 8am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
195 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
235 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as it approaches the coast and
may reach category 4 intensity. Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare is likely to
continue its southwestward track today and be in the vicinity of Karratha and
Dampier this evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between De Grey and Mardie today, including communities at Port Hedland
and Karratha. These gales may extend to Exmouth and to inland parts late in the
day and overnight.

Very destructive winds are likely close to the centre of the cyclone as the
system approaches the Pilbara coast this evening or overnight. Wind gusts may
reach 240 kilometres per hour if the system further intensifies.

Residents of Karratha and Dampier are warned of the potential of a very
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise
to significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding
and damaging waves.

Widespread heavy rain and flooding is likely in the Pilbara and Gascoyne over
the next few days, with consequent traffic disabilities.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare at 8am WST.
Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 18.8 South Longitude 117.7 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 960 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 3.

The next warning will be issued at 10AM WST Monday.

The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Dampier,
Roebourne, Wickham and Whim Creek.
BLUE ALERT: People in remaining coastal areas between De Grey and Exmouth,
including those in near or between the communities of Port Hedland, South
Hedland, Onslow, Pannawonica and Exmouth. Cyclone advices and State Emergency
Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So is that around 85 to 90 mph? In is cat5 for them 120 or so mph? I can't believe they have there cat5 as a normal cat3 for the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.3S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.9S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 091500Z.//



ALMOST A "CANE" ACCORDING TO THE JTWC!

[HURAKAN]

REALLY, REALLY NICE!!!