SE Indian Ocean: TC Clare

[JonathanBelles]

according to a couple of sources it is a cat 2 (aus) cyclone w/ 81 mph

[HURAKAN]

according to a couple of sources it is a cat 2 (aus) cyclone w/ 81 mph

THAT'S IN GUSTS!

[HURAKAN]

THE LATEST IMAGE: GETTING MORE POWERFUL BY THE MINUTE! IT MAY BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR CYCLONE OF THE YEAR.

[HURAKAN]

08/0233 UTC 15.8S 120.3E T3.0/3.0 CLARE -- South Indian Ocean

DVORAK INDICATES A 50 MPH STORM!

[Alacane]

Are the tropical cyclone advices that are produced by the Australian Bureaus of Meteorology archived somewhere? Can you subscribe to receive them in e-mail?

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
for coastal waters between Kuri Bay and Cape Preston
Issued at 12:10 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

At 11:00 AM WST Tropical Cyclone Clare was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal one degrees South [16.1 S]
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal four degrees East [120.4 E]
about 155 nautical miles northwest of Broome,
275 nautical miles northnortheast of Port Hedland.
Recent movement: southwest at 12 knots.
Maximum winds: 55 knots.
Central pressure: 980 hectopascals.

Forecast to be within 70 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal five degrees South [18.5 S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal six degrees East [117.6 E]
about 120 nautical miles northnorthwest of Port Hedland at 8am on Monday.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds increasing to 70 knots
by 8am Monday. Combined seas and swell to 7m.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 45 nautical miles of centre: Clockwise winds increasing to 45/60 knots
during Sunday. Scattered squalls to 80 knots. Combined seas and swell rising to
6m.

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 70 nautical miles of centre increasing to 90 nautical miles of centre by
Monday morning: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots. Scattered squalls to 60 knots.
Combined seas and swell rising to 4m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere between Kuri Bay and Cape Preston:
Northerly to easterly winds 25/33 knots north of Wallal extending to Port
Hedland by midnight and to remainder on Monday morning. Scattered squalls to 45
knots. Seas rising to 2.5 m and swell to 2.5 m.

The next warning will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Sunday 8 January.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 12:05 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Bidyadanga and Dampier. The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga has been cancelled.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current from Dampier southwest to Exmouth, extending inland
to include Marble Bar, Pannawonica and Tom Price.

At 11am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
285 kilometres northwest of Broome and
505 kilometres northnortheast of Port Hedland moving southwest at
22 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the coastline between
Bidyadanga and Dampier during the next 24 hours. The cyclone is expected to
intensify into a severe tropical cyclone and move closer to the Pilbara coast
during Monday and Tuesday. PILBARA COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE IMPACT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Clare at 11am WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 16.1 South Longitude 120.4 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 980 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 2.

The next warning will be issued at 3pm WST.

The State Emergency Service Advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in, near or between the communities of Bidyadanga, Sandfire,
Wallal, Port Hedland and South Hedland. Cyclone advices and State Emergency
Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

NICE!

[JonathanBelles]

55knots=63mph=101km/h cat 2?

[HurricaneBill]

55knots=63mph=101km/h cat 2?

The Australian scale is not the same as the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Plus, the sustained winds are 10-min averages.

I'll convert it to 1-min average.

55 knots X 1.14 = 62.7 knots

62.7 knots X 1.15 = 72.105 mph

The maximum 1 minute sustained wind in Clare would be around 72 mph. This would put Clare just below hurricane status. (That is, if we were going by the SS scale.)

[HurricaneBill]

It would be wonderful to have a RECON on this cyclone.

The only time I've heard of a mission into a southern hemisphere TC was in 1979. An experimental NOAA aircraft flew a single mission into Cyclone Rosa.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 10 minute winds are misleading to people. Because they make the hurricane/cyclone seem weaker then it is. In there scale is also misleading to people thinking that a cat2 hurricane is going to hit them. In really its only a strong tropical storm.

[P.K.]

The 10 minute winds are misleading to people. Because they make the hurricane/cyclone seem weaker then it is. In there scale is also misleading to people thinking that a cat2 hurricane is going to hit them. In really its only a strong tropical storm.

Not really, the WMO standard is 10 minute averages so most people around the world would understand how strong it was. Also I would have thought they wouldn't know the SS scale down there, they would know their own scale. The pressure is down another 2hPa and it could reach cat 3 soon.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 5:45 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Bidyadanga and Mardie, extending inland to include Pannawonica.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current from Mardie southwest to Coral Bay, extending inland
to include Marble Bar and Tom Price.

At 5pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
305 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
395 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland
moving southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Bidyadanga and Mardie during the next 24 hours. The cyclone is expected to
intensify into a severe tropical cyclone and move closer to the Pilbara coast
during Monday and Tuesday. PILBARA COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE IMPACT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Clare at 5pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 16.9 South Longitude 119.6 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 978 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 2.

The next warning will be issued at 9pm WST.
The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Mardie, including
those in, near or between the communities of Bidyadanga, Wallal, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and Pannawonica. Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

----------------------

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0629UTC 8 JANUARY 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 25 nautical miles of
Latitude 16.5 south
Longitude 120.0 east
Recent movement: southwest at 12 knots.
Maximum winds: 55 knots.
Central pressure: 980 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained winds to 55 knots increasing
to 75 knots by 09/0600UTC, with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy
swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 45 nautical miles by
09/0000UTC: 45/60 knot winds with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy
swell.
Within 75 nautical miles of centre extending to within 90 nautical miles of
centre by 09/000UTC winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 1800UTC 08 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.0 south 118.4 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 09 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.3 south 117.1 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 08 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
for coastal waters between Cape Leveque and Northwest Cape
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

At 8:00 PM WST Tropical Cyclone Clare was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal two degrees South [17.2 S]
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal two degrees East [119.2 E]
about 190 nautical miles north of Port Hedland,
250 nautical miles north northeast of Karratha .
Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots.
Maximum winds: 60 knots.
Central pressure: 970 hectopascals.

Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five degrees South [20.5 S]
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine degrees East [116.9 E]
about 95 nautical miles west of Port Hedland and 10 nautical miles north
northeast of Karratha at 8 PM on Monday.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds increasing to 70 knots
by 2am Monday and 100 knots by 8pm Monday. Combined seas and swell to 7m rising
to 10m by Monday night.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 35 nautical miles of centre increasing to 40 nautical miles of centre by
Monday morning: Clockwise winds 45/60 knots. Scattered squalls to 80 knots.
Combined seas and swell to 6m.

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre increasing to 90 nautical miles of centre by
Monday afternoon: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots. Scattered squalls to 60 knots.
Combined seas and swell rising to 4m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere between Cape Leveque and Northwest Cape:
North to northeast winds 25/33 knots north of Wallal extending to Port Hedland
by midnight and to remainder by Monday evening. Scattered squalls to 45 knots.
Seas rising to 2.5m and swell to 2.5m.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Sunday, 8 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Wallal and Onslow, extending inland to include Pannawonica. A
CYCLONE WATCH is current from Mardie southwest to Coral Bay, extending inland to
include Marble Bar and Tom Price.

At 8pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
355 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
465 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
moving southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone overnight,
move closer to the coast during Monday, and is forecast to be in the vicinity of
Karratha later in the afternoon or evening.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour will develop in coastal areas
between Wallal and Onslow during Monday morning, including communities at Port
Hedland and Karratha. These gales may extend inland during the day.

Very destructive winds are likely as the system crosses the Pilbara coast later
on Monday afternoon or evening, and may reach
260 kilometres per hour if the system intensifies as expected.

Residents of Karratha and Dampier are warned of the potential of a very
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise
to significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding
and damaging waves.

Widespread heavy rain and flooding is likely in the Pilbara over the next few
days, with consequent traffic disabilities.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Clare at 8pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.2 South Longitude 119.2 East.
Recent movement : southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 970 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 165 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 2.

The next warning will be issued at 12 midnight WST.

The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Mardie, including
those in, near or between the communities of Bidyadanga, Wallal, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and Pannawonica. Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1232UTC 8 JANUARY 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 25 nautical miles of
Latitude 17.2 south
Longitude 119.2 east
Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots.
Maximum winds: 60 knots.
Central pressure: 970 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained winds to 60 knots increasing
to 70 knots by 08/1800UTC and 100 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas
increasing to phenomenal with a heavy swell.
Within 35 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 40 nautical miles by
09/0600UTC: 45/60 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy
swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to within 90 nautical miles of
centre by 09/0600UTC winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 0000UTC 09 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.7 south 117.9 east
Central pressure 955 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 09 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 20.5 south 116.9 east
Central pressure 930 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 08 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[WindRunner]

Wow! That thing is going to be getting strong no matter which scale you look at it with.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.3S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.8S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.5S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WESTWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS BUT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//




THE JTWC NOW UPGRADES CLARE TO A 45 KNOTS TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF CLARE MAKES LANDFALL OR JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE AUSTRALIAN COAST!

[JonathanBelles]

alright explain the australian cyclone intensity scale for me.

[WindRunner]

Australian Cyclone Severity Scale:

(km/h)

[HURAKAN]

BoM is now forecasting a Cat. 4 at landfall near Karratha and Dampier.

MAP:
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60276.gif?1136726551157

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

so they go by gusts instead of sustained winds there?