0z GFS VERY intresting

[Extremeweatherguy]

omg! -10C 850mb temps. down into central TX!!! That would be crazy. The GFS has been calling for cold during the same time frame for the last 5-7 days, so I am beginning to think it may be right. We could have some serious cold weather and snow to deal with in 7-12 days!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope it's right. The 18Z seems to show a more extended time of colder weather over the country, including the West.



Maybe we can get back to normal.

yeah looks like after the initial shot of cold on the 17th/18th, that another one is already coming down the pike on the 21st. I am also very happy to see all this precipitation on the map! Anything to ease the TX drought would be great!

[Valkhorn]

While it's fun to look at the extreme range of the GFS, you might want to be careful. Since this first huge shot of cold air is in the mix, it will have trouble seeing past it and may not be able to handle the ripples of the 'pebble in the pond' so to speak.

[WhiteShirt]

If this makes it to the Houston area, how cold is cold? Just wondering...was contemplating rewrapping the pipes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Zone forecast from Joe Bastardi tonight shows that he thinks we will return to mild weather for the beginning of next week, but cool off by the end. He says winter will return on the 16th and that cold air will spill into the state. He says that his gut call is that cold air is coming, but "accumulating" snow (which doesn't include ice or flurries)in places like Corpus Christi and Brownsville is not. That still leaves places further north like Houston and Dallas with the possibility though. Who knows...may be this time when he says that the major blizzard is not coming; it will. lol. Before all the cold comes though, he does mention that there may be a severe weather threat this Friday. We'll see...

Edit: Joe also says that the coldest of the air may not even come with this first shot of air...the coldest may still be over 14 days away...but this first shot will be strong enough to tie or beat the cold we saw in early December. Basically it looks like from Jan. 16th onward expect COLD to be the rule.

[Donwx]

Look at the 18z run of the GFS it shows frozen precip as far south as Houston!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! looks like the night of the 17th may get very interesting. How cool would it be to wake up the 18th, look outside, and realize that 2-4" of snow had fallen. Ahh, that would be nice. Also, looks like there is another chance on the 23rd. Since the 17th is only 9 days out, I will worry about that one more for the time being, but with this kind of model consistancy, I am beginning to get my hopes up.

[Brent]

How many times do ya'll have to be disappointed to not hinge on the GFS's imaginary snowstorms at Day 10?



and Day 16? Come on...

[Extremeweatherguy]

How many times do ya'll have to be disappointed to not hinge on the GFS's imaginary snowstorms at Day 10?



and Day 16? Come on...

Well it has been consistantly showing cold and snow flurries/snow for the last many runs. It is not like this is a one time thing. I think this time there is a better chance than most other times.

[jkt21787]

Basically it looks like from Jan. 16th onward expect COLD to be the rule.

Well, even going by the GFS, thats not entirely the case. The cold shots do get more frequent, but they still remain brief (and yes the first one certainly looks powerful though). It could be mighty cold, but not for very long. Afterward, we return to mild weather for several days, then the GFS shows another cold shot at the end of the period. Again, going by the trend of this winter, with no serious blocking and an extremely fast pacific flow, this would last a few days and then we'll return to mild weather. And this pattern could continue into Feb, I would imagine.

So it will probably be sharp contrasts in airmasses in short periods of time, which will probably be extreme enough on either side to make it look like a normal month statistics-wise(which we know it wouldn't have been). I can only imagine the number of cold and flu cases going up dramatically with these wild swings expected.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW!!! Just checked out the 18Z GFS run more in-depth on accuweather.com professional, and I looked at the surface temp. forecast and the numbers I found were astonishing for how cold it MIGHT get with this arctic blast in HOUSTON (no this is not dallas or Amarillo..I am talking about Houston). On the 17th it drops us from the lower 40s at sunrise to the upper 20s by late afternoon!!! Then, the night of the 17th is in the lower 20s, but that is not it. On the 18th, the GFS is predicting a high only in the upper 20s with a low the night of the 18th in the lower teens! We finally warm back to the lower 40s on the 19th, but again reach freezing on the night of the 19th. We could be talking about a 1989 caliber cold snap on the way. I mean, wow...a high below 30 in Houston and a low in the lower teens?! And just think...some were saying winter was over. lol. Now this is not currently the "forecast" and it is still 9-11 days out..but the fact that it has us THAT cold and it has been consistant for a few days has me worrying. And it is not just the cold we have to worry about...the 18Z GFS also has heavy snow and sleet in Houston on the 18th (now wouldn't that be crazy). Lots to watch!!!

[jkt21787]

WOW!!! Just checked out the 18Z GFS run more in-depth on accuweather.com professional, and I looked at the surface temp. forecast and the numbers I found were astonishing for how cold it MIGHT get with this arctic blast in HOUSTON (no this is not dallas or Amarillo..I am talking about Houston). On the 17th it drops us from the lower 40s at sunrise to the upper 20s by late afternoon!!! Then, the night of the 17th is in the lower 20s, but that is not it. On the 18th, the GFS is predicting a high only in the upper 20s with a low the night of the 18th in the lower teens! We finally warm back to the lower 40s on the 19th, but again reach freezing on the night of the 19th. We could be talking about a 1989 caliber cold snap on the way. I mean, wow...a high below 30 in Houston and a low in the lower teens?! And just think...some were saying winter was over. lol. Now this is not currently the "forecast" and it is still 9-11 days out..but the fact that it has us THAT cold and it has been consistant for a few days has me worrying. And it is not just the cold we have to worry about...the 18Z GFS also has heavy snow and sleet in Houston on the 18th (now wouldn't that be crazy). Lots to watch!!!

I think the comparisons to the 80s outbreaks should be toned down. We saw these same comparisons in December as well (even I was involved in some of that) and it didn't materialize. I have also seen the GFS show looks like it has now many times before and then it not get very cold, certainly to the level of 89, 83, 85, etc. We must be very careful right now in comparing an event 10+ days to such an extreme in weather history.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW!!! Just checked out the 18Z GFS run more in-depth on accuweather.com professional, and I looked at the surface temp. forecast and the numbers I found were astonishing for how cold it MIGHT get with this arctic blast in HOUSTON (no this is not dallas or Amarillo..I am talking about Houston). On the 17th it drops us from the lower 40s at sunrise to the upper 20s by late afternoon!!! Then, the night of the 17th is in the lower 20s, but that is not it. On the 18th, the GFS is predicting a high only in the upper 20s with a low the night of the 18th in the lower teens! We finally warm back to the lower 40s on the 19th, but again reach freezing on the night of the 19th. We could be talking about a 1989 caliber cold snap on the way. I mean, wow...a high below 30 in Houston and a low in the lower teens?! And just think...some were saying winter was over. lol. Now this is not currently the "forecast" and it is still 9-11 days out..but the fact that it has us THAT cold and it has been consistant for a few days has me worrying. And it is not just the cold we have to worry about...the 18Z GFS also has heavy snow and sleet in Houston on the 18th (now wouldn't that be crazy). Lots to watch!!!

I think the comparisons to the 80s outbreaks should be toned down. We saw these same comparisons in December as well (even I was involved in some of that) and it didn't materialize. I have also seen the GFS show looks like it has now many times before and then it not get very cold, certainly to the level of 89, 83, 85, etc. We must be very careful right now in comparing an event 10+ days to such an extreme in weather history.

Compared to all the hype last December...tonight's GFS is much colder than what I saw being predicted by it then. Also, the front is suppose to arrive the 17th, which as of tomorrow is only 9 days out. I am certainly not saying that this WILL happen, I am just saying that it is a very interesting run and anything 10 days out or closer should be taken a little more seriously especially when the model has forecasted this trend of cold around the 17th for quite awhile now. I think people just need to understand that a major pattern shift is coming and it MAY invlove the coldest air in years...not definatly, but when the chance is there, why not mention it? We will need to watch to see if these amazing GFS numbers continue to be predicted over the next few days. Once we get to 7 days or less though, we will then begin to really have to watch this, because by that point, the GFS changes become more and more minor (usually).

[jkt21787]

Compared to all the hype last December...tonight's GFS is much colder than what I saw being predicted by it then. Also, the front is suppose to arrive the 17th, which as of tomorrow is only 9 days out. I am certainly not saying that this WILL happen, I am just saying that it is a very interesting run and anything 10 days out or closer should be taken a little more seriously especially when the model has forecasted this trend of cold around the 17th for quite awhile now. I think people just need to understand that a major pattern shift is coming and it MAY invlove the coldest air in years...not definatly, but when the chance is there, why not mention it? We will need to watch to see if these amazing GFS numbers continue to be predicted over the next few days. Once we get to 7 days or less though, we will then begin to really have to watch this, because by that point, the GFS changes become more and more minor (usually).

I completely understand what you're saying. I am buying into a pretty big arctic outnreak with this, but not to the extent of what I've heard elsewhere, maybe more like a "year or two". The 18z GFS shows the coldest air here since 1996, when it reached 4 degrees in Memphis. However, especially when you're dealing with the GFS and at this range, you must take EXTREME caution. I've seen the GFS show numbers that low in my area 10 or more days out on many occasions, that never happened. So, because of that, I'm always skeptic of these events until we're within the 7 day range, and even then nothing is a guarantee. I've gotten my hopes up too many times only to be terribly disappointed in the end to fall for something like this so quickly. In essence, I've learned my lesson when it comes to the GFS and cold air outbreaks and winter storms. There is plenty of time to get more bullish on the cold air and its longevity if need-be.

And another thing, which is very important, this technically won't be a major pattern change. The overall pattern remains the same: Pacific jet is screaming and there is a lack of a blocking mechanism which would be able to lock the trough over the Eastern United States and lead to a long term major cold air outbreak (like the 80s outbreaks were). The cold air is certainly stronger, but there is nothing to keep it in place. Its extremely transient. As long as that remains the case, although it may be getting colder with each frontal passage, the cold air will be short-lived before we return to mild weather and zonal flow, awaiting the next front to bring a brief blast of arctic air.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Look at the 18z run of the GFS it shows frozen precip as far south as Houston!!!

You can't tell by looking at those maps. That's total precipitation over 12 hours....associated with the front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Look at the 18z run of the GFS it shows frozen precip as far south as Houston!!!

You can't tell by looking at those maps. That's total precipitation over 12 hours....associated with the front.

but if you look at the 3-hour precip. maps and precip. type maps on accuweather.com professional you can see that he is right. The GFS is showing snow and sleet in Houston on the 18th.

[Air Force Met]

I think people just need to understand that a major pattern shift is coming and it MAY invlove the coldest air in years...not definatly, but when the chance is there, why not mention it? We will need to watch to see if these amazing GFS numbers continue to be predicted over the next few days. Once we get to 7 days or less though, we will then begin to really have to watch this, because by that point, the GFS changes become more and more minor (usually).

I do think a pattern shift is coming. However, 7 days out is still subject to major changes. Remember December?

Also...before any comparison of the 80 outbreaks begins it needs to end. The upper level jet pattern is not even close to what it was then. Also...the numbers being put out...dropping into the 20's...are way too cold...unless there is some bigtime arctic air built up in Alaska b/w now and then.

1) As of now...it's still not that cold up there.
2) The jet is not moving into Alaska in 200+ hours to dislodge it.
3) We have been VERY warm...which will modify the air on the way down and once it is here. Think longwave radiation.
4) Also because of the warmth in the central plains...the snow cover we had is melted...that will also modify the air on it's way down to us.

There is no way temps fall into the 20's during the afternoon and we are in the teens at night with the current airmass and current jet set-up. Now...if some cold air can get going in Alaska during the next week and the jet can amplify a little more than forecasted after the 15th or so...then tapping the cold air will be easier...but it is still going to modify on its way down because the snow pack is melted and it has been so warm.

I know it's not what you want to hear...because you get geeked up about cold weather but I haven't let you down yet this season...and you can take this one to the bank...the GFS numbers are too cold unless the air in Alaska cools more than it is and unless the jet gets a little more amplitude to it.

[pawxguy]

Hope some rain occurs for you sooner than later. Climatology says it will.

The GFS has been hinting toward colder weather for several days now. Although not to the degree of the latest runs. Consistency in the GFS in the longer range is at times a good sign as it was the model of choice after the busted pre-Christmas event when the EURO failed us.

Tossing all the guidance out the window, one must expect a swing in the opposite direction given the incredible warmth that has happened and that is expected this next week. We are not done with winter just like we are not done with hurricane season on August 1st. Winter will return and I would not be the least surprised if some records fell on the other end of the spectrum. Not only temp wise, but someday will willmake up the ever growing rainfall deficit. More and likely it will all fall in 12-24 hours causing a flood. The weather a trends toward the extremes with droughts followed by floods and cold followed by heat, although lately the extremes have been quite astounding at least in my book: 2004 snow along the TX coast, 27 named storms hurricane season, Katrina, Rita, drought, fires. Yes it has happened before, but has it happened in such quick succession with so many extreme events so close together?? Alright I am done.

Otherwise known as the "rubber band effect". I sure hope this current string of warm temperatures ends. Last December's highs in the 30's and 40's were nice. I hope we have at least one more shot of winter weather! This pattern of warm and dry weather can't last for the rest of the winter. At some point in time, it will collapse. When that happens is anybody's guess. I hope soon though. The drought situation is out of hand.

Yes it is. The good news is that for most of next week...the NWS has issued a 20% chance of rain for Houston with temps. primarily in the 60s with clouds. This is the first rain chance in awhile and I hope we see something...even if its just a little bit. Also, a prolonged period of highs back below 70 will be nice too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think people just need to understand that a major pattern shift is coming and it MAY invlove the coldest air in years...not definatly, but when the chance is there, why not mention it? We will need to watch to see if these amazing GFS numbers continue to be predicted over the next few days. Once we get to 7 days or less though, we will then begin to really have to watch this, because by that point, the GFS changes become more and more minor (usually).

I do think a pattern shift is coming. However, 7 days out is still subject to major changes. Remember December?

Also...before any comparison of the 80 outbreaks begins it needs to end. The upper level jet pattern is not even close to what it was then. Also...the numbers being put out...dropping into the 20's...are way too cold...unless there is some bigtime arctic air built up in Alaska b/w now and then.

1) As of now...it's still not that cold up there.
2) The jet is not moving into Alaska in 200+ hours to dislodge it.
3) We have been VERY warm...which will modify the air on the way down and once it is here. Think longwave radiation.
4) Also because of the warmth in the central plains...the snow cover we had is melted...that will also modify the air on it's way down to us.

There is no way temps fall into the 20's during the afternoon and we are in the teens at night with the current airmass and current jet set-up. Now...if some cold air can get going in Alaska during the next week and the jet can amplify a little more than forecasted after the 15th or so...then tapping the cold air will be easier...but it is still going to modify on its way down because the snow pack is melted and it has been so warm.

I know it's not what you want to hear...because you get geeked up about cold weather but I haven't let you down yet this season...and you can take this one to the bank...the GFS numbers are too cold unless the air in Alaska cools more than it is and unless the jet gets a little more amplitude to it.

what about the extreme cold in China? I have heard that it may try to filter into Alaska and Canada over the next week. Also. why would the GFS consistantly show it being very cold on the 17th and 18th in all of its runs during the last few days if it knew that something was not going to happen to allow that cold air to enter the U.S? Also, the GFS is contridicting your idea of the "no cold air coming to alaska"...it is showing 850mb temps. colder than -20C building into Alaksa over the next week or so, and then down to below -30C by the 23rd...which leads me to believe the coldest shot of air comes later this month (may be around the 25th or 26th). I just think that this time we do actually have the chance for some cold air...may be not the teens and may be not 20s for highs, but I still think we see at least 30s for highs and a hard freeze within the next 7-12 days.

[pawxguy]

I'll echo your sentiments concerning snowpack. With no snowpack below 40N. temps have a hard time reaching record levels in Texas.

I think people just need to understand that a major pattern shift is coming and it MAY invlove the coldest air in years...not definatly, but when the chance is there, why not mention it? We will need to watch to see if these amazing GFS numbers continue to be predicted over the next few days. Once we get to 7 days or less though, we will then begin to really have to watch this, because by that point, the GFS changes become more and more minor (usually).

I do think a pattern shift is coming. However, 7 days out is still subject to major changes. Remember December?

Also...before any comparison of the 80 outbreaks begins it needs to end. The upper level jet pattern is not even close to what it was then. Also...the numbers being put out...dropping into the 20's...are way too cold...unless there is some bigtime arctic air built up in Alaska b/w now and then.

1) As of now...it's still not that cold up there.
2) The jet is not moving into Alaska in 200+ hours to dislodge it.
3) We have been VERY warm...which will modify the air on the way down and once it is here. Think longwave radiation.
4) Also because of the warmth in the central plains...the snow cover we had is melted...that will also modify the air on it's way down to us.

There is no way temps fall into the 20's during the afternoon and we are in the teens at night with the current airmass and current jet set-up. Now...if some cold air can get going in Alaska during the next week and the jet can amplify a little more than forecasted after the 15th or so...then tapping the cold air will be easier...but it is still going to modify on its way down because the snow pack is melted and it has been so warm.

I know it's not what you want to hear...because you get geeked up about cold weather but I haven't let you down yet this season...and you can take this one to the bank...the GFS numbers are too cold unless the air in Alaska cools more than it is and unless the jet gets a little more amplitude to it.

what about the extreme cold in China? I have heard that it may try to filter into Alaska and Canada over the next week. Also. why would the GFS consistantly show it being very cold on the 17th and 18th in all of its runs during the last few days if it knew that something was not going to happen to allow that cold air to enter the U.S? Also, the GFS is contridicting your idea of the "no cold air coming to alaska"...it is showing 850mb temps. colder than -20C building into Alaksa over the next week or so, and then down to below -30C by the 23rd...which leads me to believe the coldest shot of air comes later this month (may be around the 25th or 26th). I just think that this time we do actually have the chance for some cold air...may be not the teens and may be not 20s for highs, but I still think we see at least 30s for highs and a hard freeze within the next 7-12 days.