1992 Andrew report update

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

a new update has just been amde to this report

One thing of interest (besides the cat 5)... look how much it, like Katrina weakened just ebfore landfall in the northern GOM. Weakened from 120KT to 100KT in just 2.5 hours. This is a research topic that probably should be addressed to determine why this region causes so much rapid weakening

[terstorm1012]

that unofficial minimum pressure is right near where I spent many a summer at an aunts house! (yes I cheated and looked a map.)

thanks for bringing this to my attn.

[Derek Ortt]

forgot to mention this in the previous post

The weakening in the nrothern Gulf should have been made as clear as was the initial upgrade to a cat 5. This is a very important process that occurrs in this part of the basin and further documents the difficulties of having anything above a category 3 make landfall here (and some "cat 4's" may need to be re-examined as well)

[Aslkahuna]

Probably related to why storms tend to weaken before landfalling in Mainland China (and to a lesser extent Taiwan and Luzon).

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

I did not know that storms tended to weaken before landfall in mainland China, Taiwan, or Juzon. What parameters cause the weakening there? Is the total heat content as low there as it is in the northern Gulf?

[Scorpion]

Dry air, much lower heat content, cooler waters. I expect each and every landfalling major GOM hurricane to be a Cat 3, and no higher from now on.

[Rainband]

Derek. I am curious why so much research is being done on the supposed weakening and catagory strength after the fact. What is the purpose of this. It doesn't change the damage done, wether it be a 2,3,4 or 5. Is it for building codes or evacuation zones?? Thanks in advance for your response.

[Derek Ortt]

Rainband,

those would be 2 of the reasons as to why there is a push to determine the precise category. Not so much for the past, but to improve the historical record so that we will know in the future what to expect. We now know that for the GOM, a moderate category 3 will bring about damage previously thought to have been possible only in a category 4 or 5 (Ivan, Katrina, and Rita)

Based upon recent hurricanes, it is safe to say that if we can protect the northern GOM from a category 3 hurricane, that region will be safe. Had the New Orleans levees actually been designed to withstand a real cat 3 storm surge (not the 9-12 feet south florida/puuedo 3 indicated in the unofficial addition to the SS Scale), we would not have had the tragedy of New orleans

[Rainband]

Thanks derek. I was also thinking if it had something to do with "heat content" is there anyway to adjust that parameter to weaken storms as they get closer to shore?? I guess if there was that would have been attempted some time ago. Thanks again.

[brunota2003]

Ok, I know its January, but this time of year always shows the cooler spots the best...look at the gulf of mexico here along the coast:

Since this is January, of course the temps are cooler, I just thought maybe it has to do with the currents keeping the warmer water from the coast, as shown here...

[Derek Ortt]

dont think its the currents as just a few inches below the surface of the northern GOM, it is always cold. it is only the initial surface layer that is warm

there has not been any heat content of the northern GOM studies yet, as coupled modeling is still a very new process

[brunota2003]

dont think its the currents as just a few inches below the surface of the northern GOM, it is always cold. it is only the initial surface layer that is warm

there has not been any heat content of the northern GOM studies yet, as coupled modeling is still a very new process

ah, but the currents are keeping all that warm water from reaching those areas, thus causing the gom there to have cold water only a few inches down...right?

[Derek Ortt]

the loop current remains well offshore of the northern GOM.

Maybe there is a return cold current near the coast. Something for me to look at (find an old map from physical oceanography class)

[brunota2003]

the loop current remains well offshore of the northern GOM.

Maybe there is a return cold current near the coast. Something for me to look at (find an old map from physical oceanography class)

what about the rivers? the water comes from the mountains, right? so wouldnt those be chilly...and, the cold water has to sink somewhere...

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is all awesome and relavent info...But im trying to figure out who had time to do this update from 1992 with the season we had this year..LOL

[Derek Ortt]

the deputy director, who did the initial Andrew report. he doesn't write any of the seasonal reports anymore

Of interest as well, Andrew is one of the few TC's to have made landfall twice as a cat 5

[DESTRUCTION5]

the deputy director, who did the initial Andrew report. he doesn't write any of the seasonal reports anymore

Of interest as well, Andrew is one of the few TC's to have made landfall twice as a cat 5

Homestead and?

[Normandy]

I think its the Florida Coast and the Bahamas (maybe twice in the bahamas i dont know).

Also, it didnt make "landfall" at Homestead, because Homestead isnt on the coast. I think it made landfall on elliot key or cutler ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

eleuthra island (140KT) and FL (145KT)

[DESTRUCTION5]

eleuthra island (140KT) and FL (145KT)

Thanks...