Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bvigal]

Great pics, you guys!! I'm visiting family stateside, trying to keep an eye on Zeta. Since I'm traveling, I'm using dialup... 15 minutes to load this page - arghhh! The sat pics are murder at this speed, but who can live without them? I can't!!

(why are all the emoticons Santa???)

[Thunder44]

Looks like it weakening this morning but it's amazing that still alive and kicking for so long into January. It's defying the odds and TPC forecasts.

[senorpepr]

Through 04/09Z, Zeta's ACE is 4.6925 x 10^4.

This makes 2005's total ACE 243.2149 x 10^4, making it the most energetic season in recorded history, beating 1950's 243.

[Cookiely]

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20

Statement as of 4:00 am EST on January 04, 2006


Zeta continues to generate convective tops of -55c to -60c near the
low-level center....with ragged outer banding over the northeastern
semicircle. Some anticyclonic outflow was apparent in cirrus cloud
motions earlier. However...this has decreased over the past few
hr. Satellite intensity estimates continue to range from 65 kt at
TAFB to 45 kt at AFWA and are essentially unchanged from 6 hr ago.
Thus...the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Zeta has moved more toward the south and faster over the past 6-12
hr...likely due to interaction with an upper-level low seen in
water vapor imagery near 21n38w. However...the last few images
suggest a more westward motion...and the initial motion is thus a
somewhat uncertain 220/6. Zeta is south of a mean deep-layer ridge
over the central Atlantic...while a mean deep-layer trough is over
the western Atlantic. A shortwave trough and surface front are
currently between the eastern United States and Bermuda...while
large-scale models suggest a second stronger shortwave will move
into the western Atlantic after 48 hr. The new trough will cause
the first shortwave trough to move northeastward north of Zeta...
with the ridge re-building in between the troughs. This evolution
should cause the storm to turn northwestward during the next 48-72
hr...then turn more westward thereafter as the ridge re-builds.
The dynamical models generally agree on this...with the exception
of the UKMET which calls for recurvature along 48w in 48-72 hr.
The official forecast will follow the scenario suggested by the
other dynamical models...and is similar to but west of the previous
forecast. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFDL.

Zeta is well embedded in upper-level westerlies between the
subtropical and polar jet streams...which overall is not a very
favorable environment. The large-scale models suggest a series of
upper-level short-wave features will pass over Zeta during the next
48 hr...most notably the southern end of the current western
Atlantic trough which should reach the storm in about 36 hr. This
pattern should produce some surges and lulls in vertical shear...
and based on this the intensity forcast calls for slow weakening
for 48 hr. After that...a building upper-level ridge west of Zeta
should cause 40-50 kt upper-level northwesterly flow over the
storm...which should cause significant weakening. Therefore...the
intensity forecast shows Zeta weakening to a depression by 72 hr
and dissipating by 120 hr. It should be noted that the GFDL still
wants to make Zeta a hurricane...and there is a small chance the
the approaching shortwave trough could briefly provide a more
favorable environment for strengthening in about 36 hr.


Forecaster Beven

[WindRunner]

This is the first advisory where they've done this with Zeta:


(not an updating picture)

And yes, that's the chance of hurricane force winds, and yes, it's January

[WindRunner]

Morning satellite views:





Looks like garbage this morning!

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 21.9N 43.6W T2.5/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak T numbers are starting to decrease as the system looks ragged as it's demise is slowly arriving.



TPNT KGWC 041208
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA (THIRTY)
B. 04/1131Z (139)
C. 22.0N/4
D. 43.4W/1
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS -04/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREES.

AODT: T4.3 (SHEAR)

HEATH



Air Force sat estimates are down too.

Now let's see if the 12:00z models show a decrease in intensity.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060104 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060104 1200 060105 0000 060105 1200 060106 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 43.7W 20.8N 42.4W 20.2N 39.7W 19.7N 36.7W
BAMM 21.9N 43.7W 21.5N 44.9W 21.9N 45.7W 23.3N 45.9W
A98E 21.9N 43.7W 21.4N 44.6W 21.1N 45.0W 20.8N 44.9W
LBAR 21.9N 43.7W 21.7N 43.6W 22.0N 43.2W 22.6N 42.8W
SHIP 50KTS 34KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 50KTS 34KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060106 1200 060107 1200 060108 1200 060109 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 33.6W 17.5N 23.7W 20.6N 5.6W 25.0N 22.3E
BAMM 24.6N 46.4W 25.4N 50.2W 26.9N 55.0W 30.4N 55.3W
A98E 21.1N 45.1W 20.2N 46.6W 19.1N 49.9W 16.3N 54.0W
LBAR 22.8N 42.4W 23.8N 40.5W 24.7N 43.2W 25.3N 46.3W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 43.7W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 212DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 23.2N LONM24 = 41.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM




Intensity goes down to 50 kts.

[HURAKAN]

04/1145 UTC 21.9N 43.6W T2.5/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


ALSO DOWN!

[HURAKAN]

FINALLY GIVING AWAY AFTER A LONG BATTLE AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT, THE NHC, AND CLIMATOLOGY!

[HURAKAN]

THERE'S A SAYING THAT NOTHING LASTS FOREVER!

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Still the circulation looks very tight and impressive with those curved bands of low clouds although the convection has been on the decline.Movement is still westward maybe a tad westsouthwestward.

[dhweather]

This is still remarkable - such a well defined LLC, IN JANUARY!

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 041720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JAN 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.8 43.7 230./ 6.0
6 21.6 44.8 258./10.0
12 21.5 45.5 266./ 7.0
18 21.9 46.3 295./ 8.0
24 22.3 47.1 295./ 8.3
30 23.2 47.0 6./ 8.8
36 23.6 47.1 347./ 4.0
42 24.4 47.0 6./ 8.1
48 25.2 47.4 335./ 8.8
54 25.7 47.9 311./ 7.1
60 25.9 48.8 287./ 8.5
66 26.2 50.4 280./14.2
72 26.7 52.1 286./16.4
78 27.7 53.8 300./17.6
84 29.2 54.9 322./17.7
90 31.4 55.6 344./23.2
96 35.0 55.0 9./36.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



Finnally GFDL at it's 12z run drops Zeta at 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060104 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060104 1800 060105 0600 060105 1800 060106 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.7N 44.6W 21.0N 43.1W 21.4N 40.9W 21.8N 39.1W
BAMM 21.7N 44.6W 21.7N 45.7W 22.8N 46.5W 24.5N 46.8W
A98E 21.7N 44.6W 21.2N 45.9W 21.2N 46.6W 21.3N 47.1W
LBAR 21.7N 44.6W 21.6N 44.6W 21.9N 44.3W 22.7N 44.3W
SHIP 45KTS 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 45KTS 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060106 1800 060107 1800 060108 1800 060109 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 38.4W 20.7N 38.9W 19.6N 40.1W 18.6N 40.9W
BAMM 25.4N 47.9W 26.3N 52.7W 31.4N 55.1W 39.9N 43.2W
A98E 21.6N 47.6W 20.4N 50.3W 19.5N 54.4W 18.1N 59.4W
LBAR 22.7N 43.4W 24.2N 42.9W 25.7N 46.7W 24.8N 49.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 42.8W DIRM12 = 232DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 100NM


18:00z Models decrease more the intensity now down to 45kts.

[HURAKAN]

04/1745 UTC 21.7N 44.5W T2.5/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean

THE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES DOWNWARD!

[slartibartfast]

Do we continue to count the ACE numbers in the 2005 column despite the storm surviving into 2006?
Mark

[HURAKAN]

Do we continue to count the ACE numbers in the 2005 column despite the storm surviving into 2006?
Mark

According to what I read in this same forum, 1954 received the ACE numbers of Alice life in 1955 since the storm formed in 1954. So, I think since Zeta formed in 2005, its ACE numbers of 2006 will go toward 2005!

[HURAKAN]

IF ZETA DOESN'T BURST BACK TO LIFE, I THINK ITS HOURS ARE COUNTED!