Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#241 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:24 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:You make some HOT hurricane graphics! Awesome!


Thanks. What I find COOL about the image, is that inside the letters "TROPICAL STORM ZETA" is the same image of "ZETA" that you are seeing!


WHOA! That's awesome...I didnt know it was zeta first time around
but awesome!!
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Margie

#242 Postby Margie » Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:43 pm

How deep is that trough approaching Zeta...anyone?
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#243 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:33 pm

Still looking very nice! Any one think it will become a hurricane?

Image
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#244 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:38 pm

I think i remember earlier that is had a large dash of red in the middle of the system. Then I thought that it might be a hurricane but now ... not so much
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#245 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:41 pm

as it gets later it will be getting into the time of night when convection is at its highest so it will be interesting to see what happens over night! there could be a eye by morning!
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#246 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:44 pm

Image
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#247 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:45 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 022317
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JAN 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.4 40.9 240./ 7.0
6 23.0 41.1 204./ 4.2
12 23.0 41.3 275./ 2.0
18 23.1 41.6 274./ 2.4
24 23.2 41.7 317./ 2.5
30 23.2 42.1 267./ 3.5
36 23.1 42.6 258./ 4.1
42 23.0 43.0 251./ 4.5
48 23.1 43.6 280./ 5.4
54 23.4 44.1 301./ 5.3
60 23.9 44.6 314./ 7.2
66 24.7 44.9 340./ 8.5
72 25.6 44.9 359./ 9.0
78 26.3 44.8 12./ 7.4
84 26.9 44.8 359./ 5.3
90 27.1 44.7 28./ 2.3
96 27.1 44.7 23./ .8
102 26.9 44.8 207./ 2.8
108 26.5 45.5 240./ 8.0
114 26.0 46.7 249./11.0
120 25.7 48.3 260./15.1
126 25.8 50.1 273./16.2

18z GFDL mantains Zeta for 126 hours and the track reaches 50w.
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#248 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:48 pm

Hey AFM! Another E. Atlantic storm, what do you think of this one. :D
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#249 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:53 pm

NVM now she is looking better ... I think
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#250 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:03 pm

Convection really building back over the western side of the storm. Definately a possibility of an upgrade at 10.
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#251 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:14 pm

TPNT KGWC 030004
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA (THIRTY)
B. 02/2331Z (139)
C. 23.7N/2
D. 40.7W/1
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HR -02/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. SYS CONTS IN HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRON AND
DISPLAYS EXCLNT OUTFLOW. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...BOTH PT AND
MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.5 (SHEAR)

LAURENTI

Air Force sat estimates.They see Zeta as the best it has been thru it's life as a cyclone.

02/2345 UTC 23.8N 40.7W T3.5/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD dvorak technique sat estimates haved increased to almost hurricane status.
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#252 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:32 pm

This is crazy!!! Now our other indicator (models) should be out shortly.


Time to dive into the climo books for January canes . . .
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#253 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:35 pm

the CDO is looking impressive on its northern side
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#254 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:35 pm

Wow, 3.5. Incredible.
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#255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:37 pm

One word to describe it is AMAZING
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#256 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:52 pm

All of the Atlantic systems that existed in January:

Image

And the strength record is Alice's 70kts . . . which may not be too far out of reach if Zeta keeps up like this!
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#257 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:56 pm

50kts I'd have gone higher, but it's something.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060103 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060103 0000 060103 1200 060104 0000 060104 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 41.0W 24.2N 39.9W 24.9N 39.3W 24.7N 39.6W
BAMM 23.5N 41.0W 23.4N 41.4W 23.2N 41.6W 22.7N 42.5W
A98E 23.5N 41.0W 23.3N 41.5W 23.1N 41.9W 22.7N 42.2W
LBAR 23.5N 41.0W 23.9N 40.5W 24.5N 39.4W 25.3N 38.1W
SHIP 50KTS 45KTS 36KTS 24KTS
DSHP 50KTS 45KTS 36KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060105 0000 060106 0000 060107 0000 060108 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 40.1W 23.6N 38.7W 22.3N 37.5W 19.3N 38.4W
BAMM 22.5N 43.7W 23.6N 45.2W 23.1N 47.1W 21.2N 52.7W
A98E 23.0N 42.5W 23.9N 41.3W 24.3N 40.7W 20.9N 39.6W
LBAR 26.3N 37.3W 27.3N 35.7W 27.2N 33.9W 25.1N 31.2W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 41.0W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 231DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 38.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 100NM
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#258 Postby Margie » Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:59 pm

In spite of some very nice outflow with beautiful transverse banding, the approaching shear has started the process of eating away at the convection, right on schedule as expected. This can be seen on the NW area of the circulation.

But...ooooh, this one's gonna be, while not exactly photo-finish close, as the saying goes, pregnant with possibilities. If the tail of the trough weakens, or Zeta travels further south (which it resourcefully seems to be doing), part of Zeta could slide by. The WATL is giving a better view of this right now than the floater. Maybe we could end up with a little Zetalet by tomorrow.
Last edited by Margie on Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#259 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:01 pm

ZETA: "I WON'T DISSIPATE!"

NHC: "ZETA SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS"


Let me tell you, if the NHC countinues with this policy, they will win at one point in the game!
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Scorpion

#260 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:01 pm

Aw only 50 kts. Perhaps if it keeps getting organized they will bump it up to 55 or 60 by 11.
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