Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[AZS]

90 knots in 84 hours "says" GFDL

[cycloneye]

Zeta doesn't want to go away as convection has consolidated more today and the center is not fully exposed as earlier this morning.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Zeta looks to be developing cloud tops -70 degrees lets see if it can continue!

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

Well I called it last night in chat... I knew it wasn't going away without a fight.

[JamesFromMaine2]

if this development continues then I say 60 to 65mph by 4pm est and 75 to 85 by 10pm!

[jusforsean]

could someone please give me a link to the models, the one i had isnt working anymore
thanks

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 021717
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JAN 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.7 40.5 235./ 7.0
6 23.3 41.2 239./ 8.1
12 23.0 41.5 235./ 3.8
18 23.0 41.7 253./ 1.3
24 23.0 41.8 249./ 1.3
30 23.3 41.8 358./ 3.7
36 23.5 42.2 303./ 3.8
42 23.5 42.5 259./ 3.3
48 23.4 43.1 259./ 5.8
54 23.5 43.6 293./ 4.7
60 23.8 44.0 305./ 4.5
66 24.4 44.4 325./ 6.8
72 25.0 44.6 337./ 6.6
78 25.8 44.5 7./ 7.8
84 26.4 44.2 29./ 6.7
90 26.7 44.1 28./ 3.1
96 26.9 44.1 0./ 2.0
102 26.8 44.1 219./ .6
108 26.5 44.4 230./ 4.1
114 26.2 45.3 248./ 8.9
120 25.9 46.6 258./11.8
126 26.0 48.2 274./14.4



12z GFDL still hangs on Zeta for 126 hours.

[P.K.]

No change.

WHXX01 KWBC 021829
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060102 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060102 1800 060103 0600 060103 1800 060104 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 40.9W 23.7N 39.8W 24.6N 38.8W 24.8N 38.6W
BAMM 23.5N 40.9W 23.1N 41.5W 22.8N 41.8W 22.2N 42.3W
A98E 23.5N 40.9W 23.1N 41.9W 22.6N 42.5W 21.6N 42.6W
LBAR 23.5N 40.9W 23.5N 40.6W 24.1N 39.9W 24.6N 38.6W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 27KTS 16KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 27KTS 16KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060104 1800 060105 1800 060106 1800 060107 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 39.0W 22.8N 38.2W 21.0N 34.6W 20.5N 30.1W
BAMM 21.5N 43.3W 21.1N 44.6W 20.3N 45.9W 18.7N 50.1W
A98E 21.0N 42.5W 20.8N 40.7W 21.2N 38.9W 19.6N 36.1W
LBAR 25.3N 37.5W 26.1N 36.7W 25.0N 35.2W 23.6N 33.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.4N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 242DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 25.1N LONM24 = 38.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 100NM

[cycloneye]

02/1745 UTC 23.5N 40.8W T3.0/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


SDD dvorak sat estimates haved increased to 3.0/3.0.

[HURAKAN]

I think this is the best Zeta has looked since December 30th, they day of its birthday!

[MiamiensisWx]

Zeta looks pretty good right now!

[Hurricaneman]

Looks good for January

[whereverwx]

02/1745 UTC 23.5N 40.8W T3.0/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


SDD dvorak sat estimates haved increased to 3.0/3.0.

Notice how it is no longer subtropical.

[Margie]

From yesterday:

it seems like the short comeback I anticipated earlier is starting, and Zeta may be looking pretty good by mid-morning, but I think now that the stronger westerlies are going to arrive earlier than the forecast 24-36 hours, unless Zeta ducks a lot more to the south, and convection could be gone by early tomorrow evening.

Well there you have it; 'course it's been a no-brainer for awhile...the anticipated buildup of convection, currently being increased by the oncoming shear, and now it's on a collision course with the westerlies, again I think earlier than predicted, likely to start ripping away the convection by 8pm tonight. Zeta really did try, with the southward movement, maybe if she'd been able to get down to say 22.5N, and if only the northern jet would have curved a little earlier and allowed that trough to slide just a little more to the north, she would have squeezed past that one too. But it is not to be.

However I'm wondering if there is a chance the well-defined LLC can survive to slip just south of the trough into the area of lower shear behind it, and develop some convection then. But I suppose that is just too far beyond reasonable possibility.

I wouldn't read too much into the oscillation between sub-tropical and tropical designations. It is an indicator that the strongest winds migrate from the center to further away and back again, which, given the history of the recent spate of TC that have formed from these cutoff lows, would seem to be the norm...just a way for the TC to survive in these borderline conditions. It is interesting how this is different from a true transition to extratropical.

[cycloneye]

CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.


Above is an extract from discussion at 4 PM EST from forecaster Richard Pasch who admits about how difficult it is to forecast intensity on subtropical origin systems.

[HURAKAN]

Looks good for January

Can you imagine how good would Alice have looked for a hurricane in January?!?!

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You make some HOT hurricane graphics! Awesome!

[HURAKAN]

You make some HOT hurricane graphics! Awesome!

Thanks. What I find COOL about the image, is that inside the letters "TROPICAL STORM ZETA" is the same image of "ZETA" that you are seeing!