January 1-15 Outlook: Mild Much of the Time in the East Firs

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Windrunner. Have a terrific New Year.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From 12/30/2005 10 a.m.

Albany: 1"-3"; Actual: 3.7"; Error: 0.7"
Boston: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.1"; Within range
Hartford: 2"-4"; Actual: 3.9"; Within range
New York City: Less than 1"; Actual: 0.4"; Within range
Newark: Less than 1"; Actual: 0.3"; Within range
Providence: 1"-3"; Actual: 3.0"; Within range
White Plains: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.3"; Within range

All said, the above forecast worked out very well. I'll have estimates for the 1/2-4 event later this evening. Briefly, NYC and south will likely miss out on most of the frozen precipitation. The NAM's continuing warming with each run also raises some questions.

[donsutherland1]

It's way too soon to place any degree of certainty on this development, but the 1/2/2006 0z run of the GFS brings a strong cold front off the East Coast on 1/13 and then much colder air covers the East through 384 hours. This represents a major change from the prior run of the GFS.

What's important is that there has been consider variability in the extended range of the GFS. This variability is probably hinting that the pattern will change around that timeframe. One often sees a lack of continuity before the models settle on a given change. So, overall, I still believe the idea of a possible pattern change in the 1/12-1/15 timeframe has a reasonable chance at verifying.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Warmer to sometimes much warmer than normal conditions for the January 1-7 period in Richmond to Boston.

All cities were warmer to much warmer than normal Overall readings for the first half of January proved much warmer than normal:

Boston: +6.6°
New York City: +8.4°
Philadelphia: +8.5°
Richmond: +8.5°
Washington, DC (DCA): +7.5°

Possible high temperatures that would reach or exceed 60° in Richmond, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore on one or more days in the January 1-7 period. One or more days of 50° or above highs appear likely in Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, and Boston.

The highest temperatures occurred on January 9 when readings reached 60° as far north as New York City. The highest readings in the January 1-7 period were:

Boston: 39°
New York City: 50°
Philadelphia: 51°
Richmond: 53°
Washington, DC (DCA): 54°

Closer to normal but still somewhat above normal temperatures for the January 8-15 period in Richmond to Boston.

This period averaged much above normal. It was the warmest part of the January 1-15 timeframe.

Little or no measurable snowfall in Richmond to New York City through January 10. Northern New England, including such cities as Burlington and Caribou could see abundant snowfall.

January 1-10 Snowfall:
Boston: 1.6"
Burlington: 6.7"
Caribou: 7.5"
New York City: Trace
Newark: 0.1"
Philadelphia: None
Providence: 4.1"
Richmond: None
Washington, DC (DCA): None

Increasing prospects for a return to colder conditions in the January 12-15 period.

January 14-15 saw much colder air push into the eastern U.S. Some snow fell as far south and east as Norfolk, Virginia. Parts of Long Island, New Jersey, and the New England states picked up a moderate snowfall. Readings fell into the teens as far south as Atlantic City on January 15th.

This cold air mass was transient and did not represent a change to a sustained cold pattern.