Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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wxwatcher91
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#181 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:43 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:More so than it still being around, what really catches my eye is the fact that it is trying to form an eye and an eyewall! A hurricane in January near 25N? I always said that I would likely never see a repeat of 1954-1955's Alice in my lifetime...but it might happen this year with Zeta. The GFDL might be on to something.

Shear is expected to decrease slightly during the next 24 hours and with the slower than expected forward motion we could see the convection completely wrap around the center. In fact, outflow and convection are expanding toward the southwest of the center, so don't be surprised to see a hurricane during the next 12-24 hours. This against all odds.

Simply amazing...


well thats what 2005 is, isnt it? "against all odds" and "simply amazing"
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#182 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:00 pm

Zeta is now starting to look better organized! Convection also appears to be slightly deeper.
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#183 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:01 pm

Image

Still hanging on with center less exposed than earlier this morning.
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#184 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:03 pm

If organization keeps up, Zeta may soon reach sustained winds of 60MPH to 65MPH. Who agrees?
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#185 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:03 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:If organization keeps up, Zeta may soon reach sustained winds of 60MPH to 65MPH. Who agrees?


Moi!
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#186 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:08 pm

WindRunner wrote:Moi!


Does that mean "me" or "yes"?
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#187 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:08 pm

is that the eye developing?
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#188 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:12 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:If organization keeps up, Zeta may soon reach sustained winds of 60MPH to 65MPH. Who agrees?


ay!
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#189 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:12 pm

Image
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#190 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:17 pm

IMO with shear lessening we may be looking at Hurricane
Zeta in the coming days. Folks I think we might be in one
of those super-active 1500-year cycles on top of a Thermohaline
Cycle that is driving these storms crazy.
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#191 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:17 pm

Zeta's in an area of MUCH lower shear than surrounding areas. Currently, Zeta is under only around 20KT shear. Other storms (e.g., Delta and Epsilon) formed under slightly higher shear closer to 25KT or 30KT. I think Zeta's opportunity to gain strength is better now.
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#192 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:19 pm

Image

is this an outdated image??? it says 8:45 GMT jan 1
center looks exposed again
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#193 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:21 pm

ivanhater wrote:Image

is this an outdated image??? it says 8:45 GMT jan 1
center looks exposed again


Old image
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#194 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:21 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Moi!


Does that mean "me" or "yes"?


Me. :)
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#195 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:23 pm

ok :uarrow: i thought so
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#196 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:26 pm

IMO SSTs may be able to support a weak-moderate Category 1
Hurricane given the cold-core subtropical origin of Zeta. Given that
origin, Zeta may be able to strengthen over cooler SSTs than
the SSTs normally required for normal tropical systems and normal
warm-origin hurricanes. Lessening shear will facilitate the process
by which Zeta can Strengthen.
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#197 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:27 pm

I agree, Tampa Bay Hurricane. I think Zeta is in a much better position to strengthen.
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#198 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:40 pm

shear will begin to increase again tomorrow night into Tuesday, so Zeta could take advantage of the low shear and normal convective increase overnight and work up to 60 by tomorrow morning... then maybe 65 or 70 by the afternoon... I doubt Zeta will reach hurricane status by tomorrow afternoon... if the shear holds off through tomorrow night, it is possible Zeta could become a hurricane then......
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Margie

New Year, new chance for Zeta

#199 Postby Margie » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:44 pm

The flow from the jets has shifted and wind shear has reduced, as can definitely be seen by the appearance of outflow on the western side, expanding into the SW. And not only that, but an area of even less shear is headed for Zeta, so we could even see strengthening into a hurricane briefly, tonight. Actually...I think that's going to be very likely. And as the shear has reduced, the movement west has resumed, looks like SW.

Convection remains shallow and still hasn't been able to wrap around to the south, leaving the LLC exposed there. WV loop clearly shows much drier air to the south, and very clearly-defined boundaries, but it appears that is being pushed a little more south for the moment, and that the air wrapping into the cyclone now is going to have little more moisture. But right now there is still dry air being pulled in from the south. I expect to see the outflow continue to wrap around to the south as moister air is pulled into the cyclone from the NW.

It would really be interesting if Zeta managed to hang on long enough to be steered SW close enough for a recon.
Last edited by Margie on Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#200 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jan 01, 2006 5:46 pm

Wahooo GO ZETA GO!!!! Become a hurricane!
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