Official S2K 2006 Forecast Numbers Poll starts on March 15

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 8:15 am

What I want is feedback from all of you about the official storm2k forecast numbers poll as for when I should start it.Normally as you know it starts at March 15 but with what is going on some members haved PM'D me about starting it more early.You can PM me or post here your opinion about when I should start the poll.

Below is the last page of thread of last years poll where the complete list is posted.

:darrow:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=340

Terrell · #2 Postby **Terrell** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 12:02 pm

Given the crazyness of the months past w/r/t tropical storms/hurricanes we may have a couple of TS between now and March 15 (assuming mother nature's madness continues). Probably better to have the poll in place and not need it than to need to have the poll in place and not have it.

MiamiensisWx · #3 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 12:11 pm

I think you should start it in March because SST trends and other factors need to be monitored. By March, we should have more evidence on how 2006 will be.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 1:08 pm

Good opinions so far from the above members which are split.Keep them comming.

I took out the poll that was here earlier as what I want mainly are opinions about when I should start the big poll for the 2006 season.

StormScanWx · #5 Postby **StormScanWx** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 1:49 pm

I would say March, just because.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 3:32 pm

I want to see more opinions to see what is your preference about starting the forecast poll in January 15 or on March 15.

#7 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 3:33 pm

i say march

WindRunner · #8 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:06 pm

I personally say keep it in March, even though we might have a storm or two by then. Before that is really too far out to make a decent guess based on anything important.

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:11 pm

It is March for me. Untill then we really have noting better than a guess as to what may be going on trendwise. Even though as strange as this last year has been and knowing that we may see things we have never seen before, I still think we should wait till March for any "official" polls.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #10 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:13 pm

I honestly think you should not do it until May 1 as that is the best time that we will know upcoming factors for the 2006 season.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:23 pm

The majority has spoken and I agree too on starting on March 15 so that will be the date.As starting on May 1 it would be good but the participation would be less as there are 30 days of polling while from March 15 you can post preliminary numbers and then after you see what is shaping up in the patterns you can change to final numbers.In the meantime while March 15 arrives you can post your early guess at the early predictions thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 54&start=0

March 15 may seem far away but time goes fast so it's not too far

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:31 pm

I wasn't being entirely serious the other night in the chat thing. :lol:

The 15th March should be fine, in any normal year you wouldn't expect any systems before that. Then again most years don't have tropical storms on the 1st Jan.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:44 pm

P.K. wrote:I wasn't being entirely serious the other night in the chat thing. The 15th March should be fine, in any normal year you wouldn't expect any systems before that. Then again most years don't have tropical storms on the 1st Jan.

You never know if a storm will form between now and March 15 but being the Atlantic which is going thru the active cycle of activity anything is possible but I say the probabilitie is less than 2%.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 7:16 am

Less than two months for the official storm2k 2006 forecast poll to be up so start to think about which set of numbers you will have as time goes fast.You can post ( Preliminary Numbers) and later you can post your final numbers as in last years poll many members did participate that way.The poll will run from March 15 thru May 31.

StormScanWx · #15 Postby **StormScanWx** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:11 pm

I say 17-9-5 right now, but I think that'll change before March.

#16 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:22 pm

i say 23-10-5

CHRISTY · #17 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 8:25 pm

i say 18/9/6

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #18 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 8:58 pm

30/17/10; high ssta's > 0, cape verde untouched...lots of
cape verdes

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #19 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 9:44 pm

The SST's are cooling off in it appears we don't have the same set up. Even so we got a weak La nina which would make the central to eastern Atlantic more faverable. I'm no longer going to forecast a season any higher then maybe 1995.

Because of the cooling SST's I'v droped my forecast to 18/10/6.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #20 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 9:58 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The SST's are cooling off in it appears we don't have the same set up. Even so we got a weak La nina which would make the central to eastern Atlantic more faverable. I'm no longer going to forecast a season any higher then maybe 1995.

Because of the cooling SST's I'v droped my forecast to 18/10/6.

Actually sstas jumped upward from december to january

Official S2K 2006 Forecast Numbers Poll starts on March 15

Official S2K 2006 Forecast Numbers Poll starts on March 15

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