Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[recmod]

Zeta looks like Arlene.... remember her, earlier this year?

That was before I started tracking hurricanes online (I started with Dennis). Anyone have a pic they can post?

Well if that's so, it's another nice symmetry to the season. It all seems so fated.

I'll say it...it's already trite and stupid, but I'll say it anyway, because we'll never get to say it again:

The 2005 Hurricane Season; everything from ARLENE to ZETA!

My Hurricane 2004-2005 website has a fairly complete satellite history of Arlene. You can check it out at:

Tropical Storm Arlene

Click on the "Satellite And Radar Images" page to view the satellite history of Arlene.
--Lou

[whereverwx]

I wanna try some too.

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on although the center is exposed.

[P.K.]

That IR image has been stuck at 2015GMT since yesterday evening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks pretty good. Yeah the center is exposed but still alot of convection. If the shear decreases Zeta could do something.

[P.K.]

45kts still:

WHXX01 KWBC 011250
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060101 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060101 1200 060102 0000 060102 1200 060103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 38.5W 24.6N 37.9W 24.1N 37.7W 23.9N 37.1W
BAMM 25.2N 38.5W 24.6N 39.2W 24.0N 40.1W 23.5N 40.8W
A98E 25.2N 38.5W 25.1N 38.8W 24.6N 38.8W 24.9N 38.7W
LBAR 25.2N 38.5W 25.0N 38.0W 25.2N 38.0W 25.3N 38.3W
SHIP 45KTS 37KTS 28KTS 20KTS
DSHP 45KTS 37KTS 28KTS 20KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060103 1200 060104 1200 060105 1200 060106 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.3N 36.0W 25.2N 35.8W 24.8N 37.2W 24.0N 37.9W
BAMM 23.2N 41.2W 22.6N 42.2W 22.5N 43.4W 21.8N 44.1W
A98E 25.3N 38.3W 25.3N 37.9W 24.6N 37.7W 24.0N 37.1W
LBAR 24.9N 37.8W 25.3N 36.1W 24.8N 33.9W 23.4N 31.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 38.5W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 38.2W DIRM12 = 222DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM

[Starburst]

This is just crazy I never thought I would see this day

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy shoot its moving southwestward.

[wxwatcher91]

Zeta is just going to meander around avoiding every westerly and maintaining 50mph winds through next New Year

[WindRunner]

Center is covered again, looking pretty nice right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow its totally covered. It looks like a 50 to 55 knot tropical storm again!

[WxGuy1]

Just as a note, models and NHC haven't performed as well with cyclones that have originated in the manner that Zeta has (e.g. NOT from a classic west-ward moving tropical wave, etc). For whatever reason (I'd surmise it has a lot to do with the thermodynamic environment typical of upper-troughs turned tropical cyclone), these systems tend to persist longer than one would otherwise think -- look at Vince, Delta and Epsilon... It certainly doesn't help that there are huge data collection issues in the central Atlantic, so you can't expect models to perform too well.

I'm going to reiterate this comment I made a couple of days ago... We've seen this in the past (namely, with Vince and Epsilon), and we're seeing it again with Zeta... Storms that develop from an upper-level low or trough tend to be able to persist / maintain intensity in the face of cool water and relatively strong shear. Unfortunately, a storm's dissipation can occur very quickly in such an environment (again, as we saw with Epsilon, which fell apart very rapidly), making the forecast even more difficult. I think NHC and model forecasts for a storm like Zeta should be taken with a little less confidence than normal. I'm not dogging the NHC, as they're the best there are, but we just don't have a good grasp on intensity forecasts for these, more rare storms... Just an observation...

[Ivanhater]

geez, i expected zeta to be gone by now, it looked horrible yesterday, but this one is a fighter

[cjrciadt]

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 011718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JAN 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.1 38.5 230./ 1.9
6 24.6 39.1 234./ 7.8
12 24.3 39.4 220./ 4.5
18 24.0 40.0 245./ 5.7
24 23.7 40.6 245./ 6.2
30 23.5 41.2 249./ 5.6
36 23.5 41.4 254./ 2.4
42 23.5 41.7 276./ 2.6
48 23.7 41.7 343./ 2.1
54 24.0 41.7 2./ 3.0
60 24.0 41.8 259./ .4
66 23.9 41.9 238./ 1.2
72 24.0 42.0 294./ 1.1
78 24.0 42.3 276./ 2.7
84 24.3 42.4 336./ 3.4
90 24.6 43.0 298./ 5.8
96 25.1 43.3 327./ 6.2
102 25.6 43.6 333./ 5.2
108 26.0 43.7 346./ 4.4
114 26.7 43.7 2./ 6.9
120 27.5 43.3 26./ 8.9
126 28.1 43.3 356./ 5.4


The 12z GFDL hangs on Zeta for 126 more hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! It's still out there!! Go Zeta Go!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060101 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060101 1800 060102 0600 060102 1800 060103 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 38.3W 24.2N 37.7W 23.9N 37.1W 24.1N 35.6W
BAMM 25.0N 38.3W 23.7N 39.1W 22.6N 39.7W 21.8N 39.9W
A98E 25.0N 38.3W 25.1N 38.3W 25.3N 38.1W 25.8N 37.2W
LBAR 25.0N 38.3W 24.7N 37.7W 24.6N 37.4W 24.8N 37.0W
SHIP 45KTS 37KTS 28KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 37KTS 28KTS 19KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060103 1800 060104 1800 060105 1800 060106 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 34.1W 24.4N 32.8W 23.7N 33.4W 24.2N 33.8W
BAMM 21.3N 39.7W 19.6N 39.6W 18.0N 39.6W 16.2N 38.9W
A98E 26.1N 36.7W 26.2N 36.6W 26.5N 38.0W 27.1N 39.1W
LBAR 25.1N 35.9W 24.5N 34.0W 22.7N 29.4W 21.1N 24.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 211DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 38.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM


18:00z Model Guidance has Zeta at the same intensity as the 10 AM Advisorie 45kts.Still is almost stationary maybe a drift southsouthwest.

[Hyperstorm]

More so than it still being around, what really catches my eye is the fact that it is trying to form an eye and an eyewall! A hurricane in January near 25N? I always said that I would likely never see a repeat of 1954-1955's Alice in my lifetime...but it might happen this year with Zeta. The GFDL might be on to something.

Shear is expected to decrease slightly during the next 24 hours and with the slower than expected forward motion we could see the convection completely wrap around the center. In fact, outflow and convection are expanding toward the southwest of the center, so don't be surprised to see a hurricane during the next 12-24 hours. This against all odds.

Simply amazing...

[Ivanhater]