Cal -- that's for a totally different reason. Actually most TC hitting the north GOM do have the western side deteriorate due to the drier overland air being pulled in prior to landfall...no way to regenerate convection on the western side.
Loss of convection for Zeta was due to wind shear.
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Weather Watcher
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Long season seems to weigh on the forcasters at the NHC
Please read the following from the wunderground...
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on December 31, 2005
the satellite presentation of Zeta has been gradually deteriorating
during the day...with a partially exposed circulation on the
western edge of weakening convection. T numbers were down from all
agencies at 18z...at the advisory intensity estimate is nudged
downward to 45 kt on this basis. Westerly shear is expected to
continue this weakening trend over the next couple of days until
Zeta dissipates or is absorbed into a frontal trough approaching
the cyclone from the west.
Zeta remains located south of weak ridging in the lower to middle
troposphere. Countering this slow westward steering is the
convective asymmetry...with the result that Zeta has moved little
this afternoon. As the convection gradually weakens...a slow
westward motion of the center should resume in the low-level flow
until the frontal trough approaches in a couple of days. At that
point the remnants of Epsilon will likely be deflected northward
ahead of the front.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 25.7n 38.1w 45 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 25.7n 38.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 25.7n 39.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 25.7n 40.7w 30 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 26.0n 41.5w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 03/1800z...dissipated
Notice first zeta then epsilon... looooooonnnnnggggggg season.
Happy Holidays!
Steve
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200530.disc.html
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on December 31, 2005
the satellite presentation of Zeta has been gradually deteriorating
during the day...with a partially exposed circulation on the
western edge of weakening convection. T numbers were down from all
agencies at 18z...at the advisory intensity estimate is nudged
downward to 45 kt on this basis. Westerly shear is expected to
continue this weakening trend over the next couple of days until
Zeta dissipates or is absorbed into a frontal trough approaching
the cyclone from the west.
Zeta remains located south of weak ridging in the lower to middle
troposphere. Countering this slow westward steering is the
convective asymmetry...with the result that Zeta has moved little
this afternoon. As the convection gradually weakens...a slow
westward motion of the center should resume in the low-level flow
until the frontal trough approaches in a couple of days. At that
point the remnants of Epsilon will likely be deflected northward
ahead of the front.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 25.7n 38.1w 45 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 25.7n 38.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 25.7n 39.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 25.7n 40.7w 30 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 26.0n 41.5w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 03/1800z...dissipated
Notice first zeta then epsilon... looooooonnnnnggggggg season.
Happy Holidays!
Steve
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200530.disc.html
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MiamiensisWx
Weather Watcher wrote:Please read the following from the wunderground...
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on December 31, 2005
the satellite presentation of Zeta has been gradually deteriorating
during the day...with a partially exposed circulation on the
western edge of weakening convection. T numbers were down from all
agencies at 18z...at the advisory intensity estimate is nudged
downward to 45 kt on this basis. Westerly shear is expected to
continue this weakening trend over the next couple of days until
Zeta dissipates or is absorbed into a frontal trough approaching
the cyclone from the west.
Zeta remains located south of weak ridging in the lower to middle
troposphere. Countering this slow westward steering is the
convective asymmetry...with the result that Zeta has moved little
this afternoon. As the convection gradually weakens...a slow
westward motion of the center should resume in the low-level flow
until the frontal trough approaches in a couple of days. At that
point the remnants of Epsilon will likely be deflected northward
ahead of the front.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 25.7n 38.1w 45 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 25.7n 38.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 25.7n 39.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 25.7n 40.7w 30 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 26.0n 41.5w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 03/1800z...dissipated
Notice first zeta then epsilon... looooooonnnnnggggggg season.
Happy Holidays!
Steve
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200530.disc.html
I never noticed that! Very funny!
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cycloneye
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WHXX04 KWBC 312319
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 31
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.6 38.2 270./ 1.9
6 25.3 38.8 243./ 5.6
12 25.4 39.0 278./ 2.6
18 25.2 39.5 249./ 3.9
24 25.0 39.9 248./ 4.4
30 25.0 40.5 265./ 5.1
36 24.9 41.3 264./ 7.7
42 24.8 42.1 264./ 7.3
48 24.7 42.5 256./ 4.2
54 24.9 42.6 335./ 1.6
60 25.0 42.7 336./ 1.7
66 25.5 42.8 351./ 4.4
72 25.6 43.0 291./ 2.6
78 25.5 43.0 148./ .9
84 25.9 43.1 337./ 4.3
90 26.4 43.5 328./ 5.9
96 27.0 43.7 342./ 6.7
102 27.9 43.8 355./ 8.6
108 29.2 43.8 358./13.3
114 31.1 43.6 7./18.5
120 33.2 43.2 8./21.6
126 35.7 42.8 9./24.9
18z GFDL hangs on Zeta for 126 more hours.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 31
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.6 38.2 270./ 1.9
6 25.3 38.8 243./ 5.6
12 25.4 39.0 278./ 2.6
18 25.2 39.5 249./ 3.9
24 25.0 39.9 248./ 4.4
30 25.0 40.5 265./ 5.1
36 24.9 41.3 264./ 7.7
42 24.8 42.1 264./ 7.3
48 24.7 42.5 256./ 4.2
54 24.9 42.6 335./ 1.6
60 25.0 42.7 336./ 1.7
66 25.5 42.8 351./ 4.4
72 25.6 43.0 291./ 2.6
78 25.5 43.0 148./ .9
84 25.9 43.1 337./ 4.3
90 26.4 43.5 328./ 5.9
96 27.0 43.7 342./ 6.7
102 27.9 43.8 355./ 8.6
108 29.2 43.8 358./13.3
114 31.1 43.6 7./18.5
120 33.2 43.2 8./21.6
126 35.7 42.8 9./24.9
18z GFDL hangs on Zeta for 126 more hours.
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cycloneye
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SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 25.7N 38.1W OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 31/2100
UTC. ZETA IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PERSISTING...HOWEVER WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...OF ZETA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 37W-38W. THERE IS ALSO SOME SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 34W-37W. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ZETA APPEARS TO
BE EXPOSED AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
7 PM Discussion.Zeta will hang on into 2006.
TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 25.7N 38.1W OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 31/2100
UTC. ZETA IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PERSISTING...HOWEVER WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...OF ZETA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 37W-38W. THERE IS ALSO SOME SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 34W-37W. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ZETA APPEARS TO
BE EXPOSED AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
7 PM Discussion.Zeta will hang on into 2006.
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cycloneye
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31/2345 UTC 25.5N 38.2W T2.5/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean
SSD dvorak sat estimate this evening has no change from this afternoons data.
SSD dvorak sat estimate this evening has no change from this afternoons data.
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060101 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060101 0000 060101 1200 060102 0000 060102 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 38.2W 25.4N 37.2W 25.3N 37.1W 25.2N 37.6W
BAMM 25.6N 38.2W 25.5N 39.1W 25.2N 40.1W 24.8N 41.4W
A98E 25.6N 38.2W 25.8N 38.2W 25.4N 38.7W 25.6N 39.0W
SHIP 45KTS 35KTS 25KTS 18KTS
DSHP 45KTS 35KTS 25KTS 18KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060103 0000 060104 0000 060105 0000 060106 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 37.9W 25.8N 38.2W 25.3N 39.7W 24.2N 39.9W
BAMM 24.6N 42.4W 24.2N 44.2W 24.8N 46.6W 29.2N 47.6W
A98E 25.8N 38.6W 26.0N 37.3W 24.9N 36.6W 23.4N 35.5W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 38.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 37.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM
This is the first model guidance of 2006 another milestone!!!!.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060101 0000 060101 1200 060102 0000 060102 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 38.2W 25.4N 37.2W 25.3N 37.1W 25.2N 37.6W
BAMM 25.6N 38.2W 25.5N 39.1W 25.2N 40.1W 24.8N 41.4W
A98E 25.6N 38.2W 25.8N 38.2W 25.4N 38.7W 25.6N 39.0W
SHIP 45KTS 35KTS 25KTS 18KTS
DSHP 45KTS 35KTS 25KTS 18KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060103 0000 060104 0000 060105 0000 060106 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 37.9W 25.8N 38.2W 25.3N 39.7W 24.2N 39.9W
BAMM 24.6N 42.4W 24.2N 44.2W 24.8N 46.6W 29.2N 47.6W
A98E 25.8N 38.6W 26.0N 37.3W 24.9N 36.6W 23.4N 35.5W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 38.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 37.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM
This is the first model guidance of 2006 another milestone!!!!.
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WindRunner
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cycloneye
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WindRunner wrote::uarrow: WOW! That gets saved.
I saved this milestone first model guidance already.
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johngaltfla
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