Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Brent
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#101 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:28 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::D Holy Crap!!


:lol:
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#102 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 31, 2005 5:47 am

31/0545 UTC 25.9N 37.5W T3.0/3.0 97 -- Atlantic Ocean
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YES!!!

#103 Postby goddessfourwinds » Sat Dec 31, 2005 6:39 am

I so just created this account to come in and say I am 39 years old and have waited all my life to have a storm named after me!!!!!

I NEVER thought this would happen!!!

Oh...I pronounce mine zee-ta...but same spelling.

Wow!
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#104 Postby Nimbus » Sat Dec 31, 2005 7:37 am

I wonder if a fairly short lived storm like Zeta would have been noticed prior to 1988?

Before we had Dopler to examine structure you would never know a tropical storm had formed unless you happened to have more than one ship in the area to report wind directions.
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#105 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 7:38 am

TPNT KGWC 311215
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA
B. 31/1131Z (139)
C. 25.9N/6
D. 37.5W/5
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/SO.O/18HRS -31/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD/ ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YEILDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: 3.5 (UCCR)

CAMPBELL/LAING




Air Force Sat Estimates for this morning at 11:31z.
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#106 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 7:45 am

WHXX04 KWBC 311119
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 6Z DEC 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.8 37.6 325./ 4.1
6 25.7 38.1 254./ 4.3
12 25.8 38.5 287./ 4.3
18 26.2 39.2 298./ 6.5
24 26.1 39.8 263./ 5.5
30 25.9 40.3 253./ 5.1
36 25.8 40.8 254./ 4.7
42 25.6 41.5 259./ 6.4
48 25.6 42.0 260./ 4.2
54 25.6 42.3 282./ 3.6
60 26.0 42.2 16./ 3.6
66 26.5 41.9 35./ 6.4
72 27.2 41.5 30./ 7.6
78 27.7 41.0 43./ 6.2
84 28.0 40.6 49./ 5.0
90 28.2 40.2 71./ 4.1
96 28.5 40.0 34./ 3.1
102 28.9 40.2 341./ 4.2
108 29.5 40.3 345./ 5.9
114 30.3 40.5 346./ 8.7
120 31.6 40.6 356./12.9
126 33.0 40.7 358./13.9

6z GFDL
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#107 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 7:55 am

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302005) ON 20051231 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051231 1200 060101 0000 060101 1200 060102 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.9N 38.0W 25.8N 37.5W 25.9N 37.0W 25.9N 37.1W
BAMM 25.9N 38.0W 25.8N 38.9W 25.6N 40.0W 25.2N 41.2W
A98E 25.9N 38.0W 26.2N 38.5W 26.3N 39.1W 27.2N 39.2W
LBAR 25.9N 38.0W 26.4N 37.7W 26.6N 37.7W 26.6N 37.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060102 1200 060103 1200 060104 1200 060105 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 37.7W 26.7N 37.9W 26.9N 38.2W 26.8N 40.1W
BAMM 24.9N 42.6W 24.5N 44.0W 23.6N 45.7W 24.2N 47.5W
A98E 27.9N 39.0W 29.5N 36.2W 29.7N 33.9W 27.1N 34.3W
LBAR 26.5N 38.0W 26.9N 38.6W 25.2N 34.7W 23.7N 31.7W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM

12:00z Model Guidance.No change in intensity nor in the pressure from the 4 AM EST Advisorie.
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#108 Postby O Town » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:02 am

Doesn't look quite as good this morning, but still kicking.


Image
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#109 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:33 am

Zeta is not looking near as good due to shear. The question is whether Zeta will ring in the New Year.........2005.....the season that never ends.
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#110 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:46 am

KatDaddy wrote:Zeta is not looking near as good due to shear. The question is whether Zeta will ring in the New Year.........2005.....the season that never ends.


You are very right. Only the calendar could do it. Nothing else...

SIDENOTE: Interesting little area of troughiness just NE of South America. It has a very well-defined identity for this time of year and it's moving westward (similar to a tropical wave)! Shear is December strong, but the fact that it is an entity that is being carried westard by the trade winds (which are normally very weak that far down this time of year) makes this an Unbelievable year to say the least...one I would never want to see again in my lifetime...
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#111 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 31, 2005 10:38 am

Image
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#112 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:25 pm

Image

The center is becoming exposed so the life of Zeta is slowly but surely comming to an end but not before we ring the 2006 year.
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#113 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:28 pm

Yep....and how fitting we see the end on 12/31
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#114 Postby WindRunner » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:32 pm

Zeta's life is definately growing short - 10pm could possibly be the last advisory.
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#115 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:51 pm

Image
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#116 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:52 pm

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#117 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:52 pm

Awesome graphics with commentary people!
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#118 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:54 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Awesome graphics with commentary people!
My thoughts exactly!!! Good stuff! :D
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#119 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:05 pm

Thank you very much! Happy New Year to you as well!

:D :D :D
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#120 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:26 pm

TPNT KGWC 311820
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA
B. 31/1731Z (139)
C. 25.8N/5
D. 38.2W/3
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS -31/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD/ ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YEILDING A DT OF 2.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: 3.4 (SHEAR)

WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimate for this afternoon at 17:31z.The T numbers are starting to go down.


31/1745 UTC 25.5N 38.1W T2.5/3.0 ZETA

SSD dvorak Sat estimates also are going down.
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