My Discussion on Factors Affecting the 2003 Monsoon

[Aslkahuna]

and my outlook for this year's monsoon has been posted on the Special
Topics Page of my homepage. The URL is posted in my profile. After reaching the main menu page go to Potpourri and then Special Topics after reaching Potpourri. For those not wishing to to that way, use the following URL

http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/aslkahuna/specialt.htm

Word of warning: be prepared for a lengthy topic as I go into detail. Fir those not willing to read the discussion, suffice it to say that this is one outlook I am hoping that will bust but one that I fear will not.

Steve

[M2]

Steve, a very thorough analysis - very good, very impressive.
The comments at the end regarding the active Atlantic hurricane
season with possible impacts to us really piqued my interest since
I've previously seen some great GOM storm moisture sucked up
into our monsoon flow - the WOW - watch the show - lightning
crackling, downpours, flashflooding, severe storm alerts....GOM
input provides great weather events for us. Now that could
be the single biggest positive effect on us for a wet 'Soon as your
data points to the opposite for its normal run. Now that I know the
850mb/SV/temp drop connection, I will watch for those on the Phx/Tuc
NWS sites. Those should provide the Stamp of Approval
as to when the monsoon actually makes its official debut up the
Monsoon Trail into our CWAs.

Again, great analysis.

[Aslkahuna]

that the role played in the AZ monsoon-particularly east of the Santa Ritas and Rincons is seriously underestimated. We sit at the 860mb level here and most moisture from the Sea of Cortez comes in below 800mb which is blocked by the aforementioned mountains-except through a couple of passes. The bulk of AZ's moisture above the 850mb level comes either from the Sierra Madre through recycling or from the GOM. Considering how much moisture is evident daily on the FHU soundings during the monsoon, it's obvious that for us at least the GOM is a major source of our moisture.

Steve

[M2]

GOM surges toward your and our areas can definitely kick-start some
activity, but I cannot belive the OCMs on our local news tonight. One of
them called the upcoming week 'monsoon like conditions' and I almost
flipped. I don't care if the wind shifts for a couple days but wait til next
week or later this week - the oven door will be left open and the moisture
will be gone - gone - gone with the wind. Tomorrow's forecast: 108! By the
weekend, back down to the low 100s. It's way, way too early for the 'SOONS.
This is a weather system, not the seasonal shift. The big boomers along the
Sierra Madre down in Mexico have not inched their way up daily to our CWA.
There are no big MCSs - no outflow boundary from down there moving into
our CWA during the evening a result of storm dissapation. No The Chiquita
is not doing her dance yet! Remember last year? No swishing of the skirts,
no popping of Patron shots con limas - no dancing on the tables yet. It's
only May 26th. No pools of Mexican H20 aloft to cause a firing along the
border or the ranges, no rim shots (buildups) barreling down into the
Tuc/Phx areas. No darkening skies in Cochise County early in the day,
with its deepening purple, black and sometimes green hues spreading
Westward ... and lightning detection equipment beeping away as the
Severe Thunderstorm warnings are issued first for you, then Tuc & the Whites
later in the afternoon, and finally for us during the evening....
....Aaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....... what a great place. :Fade-color

Currently: Temp/89 DP/37 BP/29.78 RH/16% W/8 C/Unlimited

[Aslkahuna]

any High that sets up over the 4-Corners and allows mid level moisture in this time of year is a "monsoon like pattern". Never mind that the source of mosture is all wrong or that the High is not associated with the Subtropical Ridge and is not the western extension of the Bermuda High. The STR has not yet moved north of us which is a prerequisite here and in every other region of the World with a Summer Monsoon before the process of establishing that monsoon can begin. I notice that the GFS has backed down significantly on the pattern for next week and into mid June. We will probably see a chance for high based boomers this week but we get such chances every May and sometimes we even get rain from them though not often in this, the driest month of the year here. In fact, it has begun to cloud up a bit here as we have gone over 90F with our temperature. This is why I include the temperature break as a criteria down here because it is so dramatic and part and parcel of the the monsoon. As I note in my article, my confidence is not as high in my outlook as in previous years, but I still think it will verify. Your description of the monsoon here in SE AZ is about as good a written one as I have ever seen-too bad everyone can't experience a good AZ monsoon, but we wouldn't want that many people here-we like the low population here in Cochise County. Great place for Summer storm chasing.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

I have two lightning detectors here at home. One has a range of 100 miles and sounds a varying intensity beep for each CG strike detected within that range. When it begins to sound continuously, I know it's time to look on the radar or outside (if I'm not chasing) to see who is getting slaughtered by a storm. My other one is for field use and has a range of 40 miles which range increments of detection and it chirps more than beeps.

Steve

[Arizwx]

Good Afternoon,
Yes indeed I have been busy..not so busy though as to miss the Kahuna's
Monsoon Forecast.It's always the high point in my precusural harbinger state(aka waiting like a good boy) por!!! "Las Tormentas Major"!!!
Hmm.
Now then.Interesting discussion.Nicely composed,well organized as per ususual,and of course,the prerequisite verbosity that is expected from a Pro like Kahuna,in dealing with such complexities such as :!!!"Las Tormentas Major!!!
Hmm.
Now then.It appears that the Miss2 Understudy has also some interest in the whys whens whats whatifs watchmacallits.She's good,for a Phoenician!
(inside S AZ PHX Jokes)..
Hmm.
Now then.
+ENSO!Adios!
Hello Nina(The Musical)
NEG PDO= Pacificus WPAC TroppyTime.
Jullien Madden Troppy watches= More of theSame.
SSTa cool..off the Equatorial Zero Lat

Caviat du Jour:

Porque No:ES VERDAD!:

Las Costas de ACA y El Gulfo de Tuhuantapec,MX
Mar de EPAC Costal, tienes mucho tiempos Calientes.
Hehehehe.

M2..Gulf Surges also come from our S and SW..and YOU get hammered.
Nice EPAC Gulfo de California.and some Loser named Cortez has some water inn the N/C GOC named for him off Guaymas,SON.,MX.
Check out the 88-D de Tucson in late July/Aug and look SW toward Sells,Why(yes folks,we actually have a town on the AZ/MX Barrio Internacional named 'Why'.Why?Helluf I know.Lest I digress.
Back to the 88-D ..also the areas from S of the Barry Goldwater F-14 Give'm Hell Bombing Range near Continental.
Follow the Sev Bad Boys up thru The Tohono O'Odaam Nation up the Spine of the Ajo(Garlic)HWY past Sandario Rd..then Old Tucson Studios,Ryan AirField(gets creamed again)..clips DWTWN TUC..Hits W OV and Marana HARD. Screams up I-10 past Casa Grande and the San Diego FWY Onramp W right into the Gut of PHX by ooooooooohhh 19:30hrs..
and It's Packin Heat!
That's the EPAC GOC Crank..
IF it does..and a Beaut of a CAT 5 shows her face arcing back toward the NW MX Coast..we'll have even more fun.
Speaking of FUN..Look at today's SAN ANTONE 88-D for Del Rio,TX.
Now ain't that a retrogradin' ULL down on the South Spur of Baja?
Headin' over Ol Mex..W By SW.
yep.interestin'.

[weatherlover427]

I think that's the easterly wave that they were talking about, is it not?

[Aslkahuna]

I discuss have a bearing upon the entire AZ monsoon, my primary area of concern is for that region of the State east of the Santa Ritas which is so sorely neglected by the forecasters in the NWS. Here, Gulf Surges from the Sea of Cortez have no effect upon us until quite late in the season and most of our sensible moisture comes from the GOM or is recycled off the Sierra Madre.

One thing you will rarely see me do is use the term Easterly Wave to described a subtropical disturbance in the GOM or off Baja. This is because before I started forecasting in the Tropics (the Philippines) in 1966, I thoroughly read Herbert Riehl's book on Tropical Meteorology and it was there I learned the dynamics and structure of the classical Easterly Wave as he described it.

Steve

[M2]

Recuerdo, yo no soy una chica de Phoenix, pero de la ciudad de Tucson.
Nacio' en Ohio tambein, no aqui.
No me gusta la uuvia frio en el Este;
aqui esta muy buena y yo tengo muy divertidos in Guymus tambien. Muy.
Con y no con... Este estadio tiene mucho puntos especiales, ademas
hay montanas aqui y los calles estan para manejando - en los coches rojo!

tisk tisk.... Dicen que son locos... SI - Digamelo, por favor.

And dance on the table, too.


...Y Esteban (SB2): que tipo de lightning detector tiene? What brand?

[M2]

Thanks Steve, I'll have to check out their website to see if there
are any sales. Time for another 'small weather toy'. Still need to find
the handheld TV...

We grilled at 111 today - it's getting up there. A few more weeks of
this and temps 115+, then the Monsoon should start to kick in when
the wind changes and the Mexican Cuties arrive up over the border
em masse. I see that New Mexico has started to see some activity, and
that smaller storms are forming over the Sierra Madre.

No, I don't want to hit 122 again this summer; that melted the runways
at Sky Harbor and jets were grounded as their charts didn't go that high.
They've been revised upwards however. Tucson didn't know what to do
with 117 - they started acting like Phoenix

Love this time of year. Let's cook :Fade-color