SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 6 (Former TD6)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with france on something, this is a tropical storm

[WindRunner]

I agree with france on something, this is a tropical storm

It sure would be if it was in the Atlantic!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree with france on something, this is a tropical storm

It sure would be if it was in the Atlantic!

You got that right.

[P.K.]

What ever is there at least now they have left it to the BoM.

Vendredi, 23 décembre 2005, 04h30 (UTC+4)

Il n´y a pas ou plus d´activité cyclonique en cours,
(ou bien le bulletin spécialisé d´information n´est pas disponible)


Edit - Ignore that, they have changed it already.

Vendredi, 23 décembre 2005, 04h52 (UTC+4)

BULLETIN DU 23 DECEMBRE A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 DECEMBRE A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 10.7 SUD / 90.4 EST
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3860 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

[P.K.]

The next advisory will be from Meteo-France so given they have upgraded it to TD6 I'll update the title of the thread.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 2346UTC 22 DECEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC a tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal five south [10.5S]
Longitude ninety decimal two east [90.2E]
Recent movement : west southwest at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in western quadrants.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1200 UTC 23 December:
Within 50 nautical miles of 10.9 south 88.9 east.
Central Pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 24 December:
Within 70 nautical miles of 11.6 south 86.7 east.
Central Pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning will be issued by La Reunion by 0700 UTC 23 December 2005. Please
refer to warnings with heading WTIO20 [English] or WTIO21 [French].

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EXPERIENCING SHEAR!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... it is clearly trying to get organized and trying to establish outflow and get good convective activity but is being limited by shear, mostly in terms of outflow and shape, allowing the center to be partly exposed.

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Excellent graphic, HURAKAN!

[HURAKAN]

By the way, P.K., shouldn't it be "SE" or "South" Indian Ocean rather than "SW"?

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:

Excellent graphic, HURAKAN!

Thanks, just trying to entertain myself during the off-season!

[WindRunner]

If I may say so, the Invest 99 to the SE of the storm looked so much better organized, I had the two backwards!

Definately an active basin, though.

[HURAKAN]

If I may say so, the Invest 99 to the SE of the storm looked so much better organized, I had the two backwards!

Definately an active basin, though.

May I add. Sometimes looking good isn't everything!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep, that is true! I made the same mistake as WindRunner as well in the beginning, mixing up these two systems!

[HURAKAN]

23/0230 UTC 10.4S 89.5E T2.5/2.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean


TS BASED ON DVORAK!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2.5 means it needs to be upgraded.

[senorpepr]

By the way, P.K., shouldn't it be "SE" or "South" Indian Ocean rather than "SW"?

Usually, in RSMC terms, waters west of 90E in the Indian Ocean are referred to as SW and east of 90E are referred to as SE.

[senorpepr]

2.5 means it needs to be upgraded.

Remember the JTWC is not the official advisor on any storms. Officially, it is a tropical depression, according to WMO-standards. According to US-standards, it is officially a tropical storm.

The latest from MFR is 30kt (10-min avg) which is near 35kt (1-min avg).

[P.K.]

It is just within the SW Indian Ocean.

Track

ZCZC 961
WTIO30 FMEE 230624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2005/12/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 89.7E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/12/23 18 UTC: 10.6S/88.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/12/24 06 UTC: 11.2S/86.3E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.0S/83.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.8S/81.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, UNTIL NOW CONVECTION DID NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. THE
LOW
LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTLY EXPOSED BUT SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED
AND RATHER SYMMETRICAL PATTERN (CF QUIKSCAT DATA). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED
TO KEEP ON
TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]