WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:30 pm

TW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZDEC2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 8.2N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.1N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 8.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 8.5N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.1N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.3N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STRENGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENHANCING THE
NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180151Z DEC 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z
AND 191500Z.//



Image

Here is what is now TD 25W.

HURAKAN I edited the title to put the latest.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:25 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 8.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 8.5N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.9N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.5N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.7N 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:13 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 8.6N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 9.0N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.1N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.1N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.4N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 10.5N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z,
191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//



NOW A TROPICAL STORM! STILL, TWO STORMS BEHIND THE ATLANTIC.
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#24 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:45 pm

I hope this doesn't impact anybody badly. Vietnam is very prone to floods and my friend is going to be there this week.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:36 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I hope this doesn't impact anybody badly. Vietnam is very prone to floods and my friend is going to be there this week.


Image

At this moment the tropical system exibits a huge convective area and it's moving not very fast. I would expect some flooding to occur over southern Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand over the next few days to come.
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#26 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 19, 2005 5:17 am

Upgraded to a TD with TS number 24 forecast.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 09.6N 110.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 10.1N 108.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 19, 2005 9:24 am

191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.4N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.7N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.9N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 9.9N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.3N 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.0N 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.9N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 110.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z,
200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//



Now up to 40kts.
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#28 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 19, 2005 10:01 am

The JMA model didn't do much with this earlier:

FXPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 190600UTC 09.4N 110.8E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 09.2N 110.9E +001HPA +008KT
T=12 09.4N 110.2E +001HPA +005KT
T=18 09.6N 109.3E +002HPA +001KT
T=24 10.1N 108.5E +002HPA +002KT
T=30 10.1N 107.1E +004HPA -003KT
T=36 10.2N 106.2E +005HPA -007KT
T=42 09.8N 103.9E +007HPA -008KT
T=48 11.1N 103.1E +008HPA -003KT
T=54 10.8N 106.9E +008HPA -002KT
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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#29 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 19, 2005 11:48 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 09.7N 110.3E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 10.3N 108.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:26 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.0N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.6N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.8N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.6N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.3N 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.1N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.6N 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 109.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN



Image

NOW DOWN TO 35 KNOTS!
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#31 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 19, 2005 5:11 pm

Still 30kts:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 09.3N 110.2E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT

FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 09.5N 107.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:52 am


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 8.5N 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 8.5N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 8.4N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 108.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY ABSENT FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY A FORECAST COLD SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE WARM CORE CHARACTER-
ISTICS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET.//



Final Warning for this system.
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#33 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:54 am

Just beat me to it there Luis, the above advisory I posted was the last one from the JMA.
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:29 am

BYE BYE 25W!
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