Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 07B

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 89.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A NOW WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING 850 MB
VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

15/0830 UTC 8.3N 86.8E T1.5/1.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal

[P.K.]

Nothing from the IMD yet.

[HURAKAN]

15/1430 UTC 8.4N 86.3E T1.5/1.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 87.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING 850 MB
VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So far they have all been weak. I was looking at the records for 1998/1999 durning that time they had some really strong ones.

[bombarderoazul]

There is not much room in the bay of Bengal for this storms to develop into Cat 4 or 5's.

[HURAKAN]

There is not much room in the bay of Bengal for this storms to develop into Cat 4 or 5's.

Storms moving slowly would have all the room they need if the environment is suitable for tropical cyclones to explode into beasts like Cat. 4 or 5. Remember that Wilma last year didn't move much from where it was born to where it achieved Cat. 5.

[bombarderoazul]

There is not much room in the bay of Bengal for this storms to develop into Cat 4 or 5's.

Storms moving slowly would have all the room they need if the environment is suitable for tropical cyclones to explode into beasts like Cat. 4 or 5. Remember that Wilma last year didn't move much from where it was born to where it achieved Cat. 5.

Yes I know, you are right, but having more room does give you an advantage to have a better chance at development. You do get monster storms in the bay of Bengal but, they are not that common as in other basins.

[Hurricanehink]

There is not much room in the bay of Bengal for this storms to develop into Cat 4 or 5's.

Storms moving slowly would have all the room they need if the environment is suitable for tropical cyclones to explode into beasts like Cat. 4 or 5. Remember that Wilma last year didn't move much from where it was born to where it achieved Cat. 5.

Yes I know, you are right, but having more room does give you an advantage to have a better chance at development. You do get monster storms in the bay of Bengal but, they are not that common as in other basins.

There was one in 1999, one in 1991, and one in 1989 (Gay moved from WPAC to BOB and reached Cat. 5 in BoB). You are right, there isn't a lot of space, but it's enough if you have the whole length of the area. The Arabian Sea, on the other hand, has never seen a Cat. 5, IIRC.

[Derek Ortt]

big difference in heat content between the bay of bengal and the NW Caribbean

[P.K.]

Track

No. BOB/12/2005/03 Dated : 16th December, 2005

Subject : Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal

The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 hrs. IST of 16th December, 2005 near lat. 8.00 N and Long. 85.00 E about 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast as a depression during next 48 hours.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely to commence along Tamilnadu coast from tonight. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu coast from 17th morning.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Coredesat]

It's still going, but it's running out of time:



EDIT:

16/1430 UTC 7.9N 84.2E T2.0/2.0 99B -- Bay of Bengal

[P.K.]

No. BOB/12/2005/05 Dated : 16th December, 2005

Subject : Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal

The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1730 hrs. IST of 16th December, 2005 near Lat. 8.00 N and Long. 84.50 E about 600 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast as a depression during next 48 hours.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely to commence along Tamilnadu coast from late tonight. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu coast from 17th morning.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Next bulletin will be issued tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 162000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/161951ZDEC2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 84.6E TO 7.6N 81.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS­
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 84.E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND A 161510Z SSMI PASS REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A RECENT
INCREASE OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE RECENT TRACK AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH INCREASED EASTWARD STEERING
INFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172000Z.//


IT NEEDS TO HURRY UP BECAUSE LANDFALL IS A DAY AWAY!

[HURAKAN]

16/2030 UTC 7.7N 84.1E T2.5/2.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal


UP TO 2.5!

[P.K.]

The IMD don't take this beyond a depression. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/img/qlm.gif

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZDEC2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
WTIO31 PGTW 170300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 7.6N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 7.8N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 8.1N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.4N 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. TC 07B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
INDIA WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 161951ZDEC2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 162000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND
180300Z.//




TC 07B IS HERE!

[HURAKAN]

17/0230 UTC 7.8N 84.2E T2.5/2.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal

NO CHANGE FROM EARLIER!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Will this make it across the Island?

[HURAKAN]

Will this make it across the Island?

I don't think so (as a tropical storm), it's a very weak system on its formative stages.

[wxmann_91]

The poor folks in Sri Lanka...haven't day had enough already?