WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

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HURAKAN
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 25W

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:04 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 127.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO MINDANAO, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

15/1133 UTC 6.7N 127.6E T1.0/1.0 95W -- West Pacific Ocean

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Last edited by HURAKAN on Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby bombarderoazul » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:15 pm

It appears the Atlantic will win the title for most busy cyclone basin in the planet.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:25 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:It appears the Atlantic will win the title for most busy cyclone basin in the planet.


YA ESO ESTA ESCRITO EN LOS RECORDS GUINESS!

THAT'S ALREADY ON THE GUINESS BOOK OF RECORDS!
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#4 Postby bombarderoazul » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:34 pm

Really? I didn't know that. 2005 was indeed an amazing season.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:40 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:Really? I didn't know that. 2005 was indeed an amazing season.


Not exactly but it has been a really amazing year. The first time the Atlantic beats the WPAC since records began.
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:44 pm

That system looks very good...But its close to land. I wonder if it can organize enough to become a depression before landfall?
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#7 Postby bombarderoazul » Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:06 pm

I don't think I would want to live in the WPAC, imagine having to deal with 10 category 5 super typhoons like they did in 1997. This was a quiet year for them, but during strong El Nino years they can easily produce powerful storms and in large numbers.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2005 8:05 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 127.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
TANDAG, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDI-
CATES CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NOW WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC PRODUCING AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LLCC AND THE LAKE
BAIKAL HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND MONGOLIA. THIS GRADIENT IS
FURTHER ENHANCING THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2005 2:15 pm

16/1433 UTC 10.8N 122.0E T1.5/1.5 95W -- West Pacific Ocean

GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED!
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#10 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:51 pm

Image
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#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Dec 16, 2005 9:54 pm

The potential for it forming is now upgraded to good! Here is the latest on it...

WTPN21 PGTW 170230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/170221ZDEC2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 121.2E TO 12.1N 116.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 162330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 120.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 125.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 120.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 162331Z SSMI PASS INDICATES CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC
PRODUCING MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND MONGOLIA
IS ENHANCING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180230Z.//
NNNN

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2005 9:55 pm

Image

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED! VIETNAM AND SOUTHERN CHINA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE!
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2005 10:28 pm

17/0133 UTC 10.5N 120.2E T1.0/1.5 95W -- West Pacific Ocean

DOWN FROM EALIER!
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#14 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:59 pm

Interesting, I thought they were done. But, you know the saying- too little too late. We're just two weeks away from wrapping up the biggest upset ever. 8-)
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#15 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:41 pm

0524 a possibility going by the Met Office model.

FXXT03 EGRR 171733

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.12.2005
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

9.2N 117.1E


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.12.2005 9.2N 117.1E WEAK

00UTC 18.12.2005 8.9N 114.5E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.12.2005 8.7N 112.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.12.2005 8.8N 110.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.12.2005 8.4N 109.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.12.2005 8.8N 108.2E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.12.2005 9.3N 107.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.12.2005 9.8N 106.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.12.2005 9.4N 105.0E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 22.12.2005 8.3N 102.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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#16 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:32 pm

It's not over... development is still possible! Here's the latest information...

WTPN21 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/180151ZDEC2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170221ZDEC2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 116.6E TO 7.8N 111.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 172330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 115.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
120.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 172154Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE CONTINUED DEEP CONVEC-
TION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
QUIKSCAT AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CHINA ENHAN-
CING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVOR-
ABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190200Z.//

Image

Image

It is looking better organized as well.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:36 pm

It will be interesting if it could slip under Vietnam and Thailand and cross into the alread active, Bay of Bengal.

:P
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#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:37 pm

Are any new number classifications up yet, HURAKAN? If so, can you post them?
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:50 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Are any new number classifications up yet, HURAKAN? If so, can you post them?


17/2033 UTC 10.9N 116.6E T1.5/1.5 95W -- West Pacific Ocean

This is the latest, still, no tropical storm based on Dvorak!
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#20 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:51 am

Nothing from the JMA.

18/0833 UTC 9.2N 113.6E T1.5/1.5 95W -- West Pacific Ocean
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