Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
JenyEliza
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: Metro ATL

#161 Postby JenyEliza » Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:02 am

Better late than never, I suppose. 10 hours after the last AFD, we finally have another. :eek:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
YUCK. OBVIOUSLY FCST THIS TIME YESTERDAY DIDNT PAN OUT TOO WELL.

TEMPS ENDED UP STEADY ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND DRY AIR ADVECTED INTO NE ZONES IN TYPICAL CAD FASHION. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ICING ON SURFACES ACROSS NORTH ATL METRO AND POINTS NE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY EVEN IN BANKS COUNTY IN FAR NE GA...ROADS ARE STILL WET WITH ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. NO REPORTS OF SLEET AS OF YET. COULD GET AWAY WITH FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST ZONES BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES HAVE GONE WITH ICE STORM WARNING FOR MANY NE ZONES. :eek:

CATEGORICAL POPS A GIVEN TODAY BUT PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESP IF NAM12 IS TO BE BELIEVED. GUIDANCE TEMPS TODAY...WELL LETS JUST SAY THEY ARENT WORTH THE BITS THEY`RE ENCODED WITH. WENT BELOW MAV BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES. MET OR FWC ARENT ANY BETTER.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM IN SW FLOW ARRIVES. AGAIN...TEMPS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER WEATHER IN NORTH GA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC CAD EVENT LIKE THIS ONE...IN FACT P-TYPE NOMAGRAMS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE RAIN/SNOW TYPE SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW CHCS INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY AND COOL PERIOD. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH EVEN COLDER THICKNESSES PROGGED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT. FOR NOW KEPT RAIN OR SNOW IN FORECAST FOR TUES.

NOTE TO MEDIA...PLEASE PHONE OR IM MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING REPORTS WHEN YOU HAVE TIME. MUCH APPRECIATED.
SNELSON
0 likes   

User avatar
JenyEliza
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: Metro ATL

#162 Postby JenyEliza » Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:15 am

No sign of school closings....and my kids are supposed to be up at 6:00 and out of here by 7:15 am. Looks like they're going to wait until the last minute to decide to close schools--or not.

(grumble, grumble, grumble...our school system is slow slow slow too)

I think I just made an executive decision. Nobody's going anywhere today. Staying home. Alarm clocks in the off position. Better safe than sorry.

I'm going to get some sleep soon....

Jen
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#163 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:02 am

JenyEliza wrote:No sign of school closings....and my kids are supposed to be up at 6:00 and out of here by 7:15 am. Looks like they're going to wait until the last minute to decide to close schools--or not.

(grumble, grumble, grumble...our school system is slow slow slow too)

I think I just made an executive decision. Nobody's going anywhere today. Staying home. Alarm clocks in the off position. Better safe than sorry.

I'm going to get some sleep soon....

Jen


They must have read my rant post earlier ... that was actually a rather nice and clear cut AFD admitting yesterday's bust.

SF
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#164 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:09 am

JenyEliza wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:CAE has gone to a mixed bag of precip at 33º, and here in CHS -- cold light rain at 39º ... unfortunately for us here in the CHS area wanting wintry weather ... isn't gonna happen ... and aloft the flow is fairly strong from the SOUTH ... this area is outlined under a slight risk of SVR WX for Thursday ...

IF the coastal trough breaks the wedge along the coast on THURS, SVR WX would likely be a major concern with very strong directional wind shear profiles ... although, cool, stable boudnary layer air may prevent proper mixing of sfc winds ... but elevated convection whether this wedge breaks or not here along the inland coast seems to be a good bet.

Upstate SC has already seen an average of .1" of liquid equivalent all in the form of ZR and IP .. (Anderson, Greenville, Greenwood)

SF


WOW.....it's SF! I'm so glad to see you again! How ya been??

Jen


Hey Jen, sorry didn't see this earlier ... I've been fine. .. just busy, working my tail off nights at the Post Office now, and sleep thru most of the afternoon ...

the thunderstorm last week here caused roof damage (rain found its way in and leak in my bedroom .. fortunately water drip where there's no electrical equipment, IE PC, TV, etc.) ... UGH ... looking forward to spending $$$ to repair these :( ...

hope all's well with you ..

SF
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#165 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:42 am

Light freezing rain started to reach the ground just before 5am here.

Currently 27F, dewp 23F, rh 85%, light ZR. Light glazing seen on trees. At this point it looks like power disruption is unlikely.

Schools closed, government delayed 2 hours.

Here's our latest discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

TODAY/TONIGHT: THIS WINTERY EVENT IS IN ITS INFANCY BUT IS SHOWING A
COUPLE OF SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST. FIRST... THE 06Z GSO
SOUNDING CAME IN COOLER THAN SHOWN IN YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS... WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES OF 1293 AND 1546... AND CURRENT SURFACE OBS
STILL HAVE THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH
LITTLE TREND EITHER WAY IN RECENT HOURS. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE THERMAL STRUCTURE. THE SECOND WRENCH IS
THE DELAY IN THE PRECIP. IT'S TOUGH TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT IMPACT THIS
PRECIP DELAY WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE... ALTHOUGH BASED ON LATEST
SURFACE OBS AND MSAS ANALYSES THE WEDGING HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
DEFINITELY RETREATING. OUT OUR WINDOW WE'VE HAD A VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX IN THE LAST HALF HOUR... HARDLY NOTICEABLE... AND THE
06Z GSO SOUNDING'S THICKNESSES INDICATED A LIKELY START AS LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE AND SHIFTS TO
MOSTLY ZR THEN TO ALL R. THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WEDGE BOUNDARY... THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
PIEDMONT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER. FOR THE SOUTHEAST
CWA FROM WADESBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT ZR OR WINTERY MIX AT ONSET BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING
ALL RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS... LEANING TOWARD THE COOL SIDE AND
ACCOUNTING FOR A SURFACE COLD LAYER THAT IS THINNING QUICKLY...
INDICATE A BRIEF WINTERY MIX FROM HENDERSON DOWN TO FALLS LAKE TO
ALBEMARLE BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY ZR THEN TO R BY LATE MORNING AT
WORST. WILL ADD CHATHAM /MONTGOMERY /STANLY COUNTIES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL EXTEND THE WHOLE ADVISORY TO NOON FOR
SIMPLICITY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING TRAVEL PROBLEMS...
ALTHOUGH THE WARM RAIN SHOULD END PROBLEMS OVER MOST OF THIS AREA
BEFORE NOON. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON
AND LEAVE AS IS FOR THE THREE NORTHWEST-MOST TRIAD COUNTIES... BUT
WILL TREND ICE ACCUMULATION DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE PRECIP DELAY.
FORECAST THICKNESSES THERE TREND QUICKLY INTO THE ALL-RAIN CATEGORY
BY 16-18Z. WILL THROW IN AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SE SINCE STRONG SHEAR IS IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH WITH SO-SO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED
IT SHOULDN'T BE A BIG DEAL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#166 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:52 am

It is nasty here in Charlotte and getting worse. Ice around .25 of an inch already and still moderate freezing rain. Accidents everywhere and numerous closings. 30.3 degrees.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#167 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:53 am

The Duke Power spokesman on TV says that last hour, systemwide outages were 5000 all in upstate SC, now outages are 38000 mostly in upstate SC and the counties west of Charlotte.

Hopefully temps rise before *that* problem spreads.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#168 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:59 am

gotoman38 wrote:The Duke Power spokesman on TV says that last hour, systemwide outages were 5000 all in upstate SC, now outages are 38000 mostly in upstate SC and the counties west of Charlotte.

Hopefully temps rise before *that* problem spreads.


I agree, but it does not look good. My trees are hanging almost to the point of breaking. I also hear sleet hitting the window at times. Ice storm warning expanded to all Charlotte metro now with reports of .2 inches ice. I have at least that here.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#169 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:22 am

I see where Charlotte schools are open today.

That's a little messed up! :eek:
0 likes   

Steve Carpenter
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:45 am
Location: Asheville, North Carolina

#170 Postby Steve Carpenter » Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:24 am

Very significant icing in this area. All roads treacherous. However, west of the Balsams temperature is rising. In the upper 30's - low 40's toward Franklin/Murphy/etc. Just takes a while for the warm air to ooze around the mountains and displace cold. Ultimately probably WILL occur in Asheville, but eastern slopes of Blue Ridge will likely stay cold for a while.
0 likes   

Wannabewxman79
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 181
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:53 pm
Location: Riegelwood, NC (20 miles W of Wilmington)

#171 Postby Wannabewxman79 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:29 am

Definately icing here in Raleigh but supposed to change over in a couple of hours. Probably a .10 inch on trees, elevated overpasses and such around here though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#172 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:48 am

gotoman38 wrote:I see where Charlotte schools are open today.

That's a little messed up! :eek:


They have no superintendent, so I guess no one can make the call. It is bad here. Most other schools on at least two hour delay, except CMS.

I have moderate freezing rain and 30.2 degrees. Icicles at least 4 inches long on house/ christmas lights and work truck. Trees on side of my house are hurting but not broken as of yet.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#173 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:08 am

82,000 without power in North Georgia...
0 likes   
#neversummer

john b
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:55 pm
Location: woodstock, Ga

#174 Postby john b » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:03 am

pretty bad in Ga,
0 likes   

User avatar
Mesohunter
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 3:11 pm

#175 Postby Mesohunter » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:30 am

I don't understand why they didn't close schools early for you all- where I live, we're only expecting snow, with maybe a chance of ice (higher elevations) however last night they initially put schools on a two hour delay to give time to evaluate the conditions in the morning. Of course schools are closed now, but there's no last minute decisions and no confusion among counties.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#176 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:51 am

Still just below 32 here, temp has been slowly rising since the rain became steady around 8am. Power outages becoming more widespread (incl. my house).

Steady R, 31.4F, dewpt 28F, rh 89%.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MINOR CHANGES.
WILL DIP NORTHWEST TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S WITH LITTLE
DIP IN TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ENDING
OF WINTER EVENT IS ON TRACK AND WILL REISSUE PRODUCTS AGAIN NEAR
NOON. WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA IN OUR NORTHWEST LIKELY NOT TO BE
MET...BUT NO PROFIT IN CHANGING TO AN ADVISORY. WEDGING ERODING ON
SCHEDULE WITH NEAR 3 MILLIBAR FALLS IN THE WEDGE PAST THREE HOURS.
TEMPERATURES UP TWO TO THREE DEGREES SINCE 7 AM SOUTH AND EAST OF
RALEIGH WITH THE TRIAD FINALLY UP TO 30 DEGREES. TRACE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF ICE FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TRIAD WHERE MINIMAL ADDITIONAL GLAZE THROUGH 1030 LOCAL TIME.
RAIN DROP TEMPERATURE APPROACHING 40 DEGREES ALOFT BEFORE THEY HIT
THE SUB FREEZING LAYER AND THIS LAYER WILL WARM AND SHRINK WITH TIME
THIS MORNING.


Looks like we'll escape this storm with widespread problems... but I hope the power at my house is back soon. :(
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#177 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 1:43 pm

Total outages reported at 300,000 now in GA, SC, NC

http://www.herald-sun.com/firstnews/37-679333.html
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#178 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 15, 2005 1:48 pm

Spokesman for Georgia Power said on the Noon News that the power should be back on for most everyone there by tonight... says there isn't any big problems with the actual infrastructure, mainly lines being broken from limbs falling.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#179 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:53 pm

450,000 without power.... but mine is back 8-)

outages by early evening still totaled 260,000 in South Carolina's upstate, 113,000 in western and central North Carolina, 55,000 in northeast Georgia and 34,700 in the Atlanta area.


http://dwb.newsobserver.com/24hour/nati ... 0512c.html
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

#180 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:48 pm

Detail from the Greenville SC newspaper....

http://greenvilleonline.com/apps/pbcs.d ... 1/51215004

Approximately 155,000 Duke Power customers in South Carolina are without power, company spokesman Bryant Kinney said at 1 p.m.

Crews are targeting substations first, which should restore power to the largest number of homes and businesses. Individual homes will come later, Kinney said.

Around 72,500 customers are without power in Greenville, 33,000 in Anderson, 28,700 in Spartanburg, 10,900 in Pickens and 4,100 in Oconee.
Blue Ridge Electric Cooperative reported about 55 circuits were out, cutting power to approximately 40,000 customers, said company spokeswoman Denise McCormick. That's about two-thirds of the co-op's customers.

Laurens Electric Cooperative reported that its outages have more than doubled, jumping from 5,300 customers without power to 12,500, said Jim Donahoo, director of marketing. The cooperative has seven crews from outside agencies helping to restore their outages. The hardest hit area is Greenville County, Donahoo said.

Laurens serves 47,000 customers in Greenville, Spartanburg, Laurens, Anderson and Abbeville, Donahoo said.

As the crystal-like ice coating brought down power lines, the utility summoned independent contractors and crews from other companies to help restore power, but McCormick said she didn't know when that would be. The utility serves Pickens and Oconee counties and part of Anderson County.

The power outages have been rolling in nature. For example, Greenville's North Main Street area lost power around 4 a.m. and the Jonesville Road area not for approximately six hours later. Homes in the Pebble Creek area went dark at 8 a.m. and parts of Easley went out around 9:30 a.m.

Severe as today's storm is, its scope pales in comparison to a December 2002 ice storm. Then, 1.3 million of Duke Power's 2.3 million customers in the southern region that includes the Carolinas lost power. Tens of thousands in Greenville and the Upstate went without electricity for four days, and 14,000 were dark after a week.

A December 1996 storm affected 660,000 Duke customers.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests