Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[JenyEliza]

Current conditions in GA.

[JenyEliza]

Light snow/sleet began in the Asheville area around 12:30 PM. I'm guessing there's been light precip at higher elevations much of the morning.

I hope it stays snow up where you are. Keep us posted...I'm going to add NC to the thread title, btw.

[Brent]

When the first round of precip(very light and brief) started about 2 hours ago... I could have swore there was a little sleet mixed in. It's well into the 40's though, and I have seen no evidence since.

Cable and Internet is hooked up now...

[gotoman38]

Temps are holding around 30 for now here, forecast to 38, but I think that's a bit optomistic.

Humidity is 43% (dewpoint 10) so we'll need a lot more to fall than what we've seen already for anything to hit the ground.

...QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUPPLYING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
LATER TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...SPREADING A
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.

[gotoman38]

Here's the Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EST WED DEC 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST CONUS CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO AREA TODAY. CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE...THERE A
FEW OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT FOR THE MOST PART OVERCAST
SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PUT A DAMPER ON MAXES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE THICKNESS SCHEME FROM MORNING RAOBS SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST MAXES RANGING FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40/OR FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST SOME SKY
CONDITIONS WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY MENTIONED FOR THE MORNING.

NO ADJUSTMENTS TO WATCH AREA THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 340 AM EST WED DEC 14 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR POTENTIAL ICING EVENT ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING N-S ACROSS CENTRAL NC REGION PRESENTLY HAS
DEPOSITED VERY COOL AND DRY AIR OVER REGION AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT
SUPPLY OF VERY COOL/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THU THEN BEGIN
TO ABATE.

MEANWHILE...UPPER DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN STREAM MARCHING INTO LOWER
MS VALLEY AT 08Z. GFS WAS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS MS RIVER AT
06Z THAN NAM AND APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING BETTER IN THIS ASPECT.
ALREADY SEEING INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL SEE THIS TREND EXTEND EAST TODAY. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY BE OPAQUE ENOUGH AT TIMES TO LIMIT INSOLATION. WITH TEMPS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOW AND MID 20S...AREAS OF NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID/UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP FORECAST TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NAM/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DELAYING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
REGION...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS...UNTIL 06Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER. INITIAL PRECIP WILL GO TO MOISTEN SUB CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER
SINCE NEAR SURFACE AIR FAIRLY COLD...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO
REACH SATURATION. PARTIAL THICKNESS IN COMBO WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST RAIN INITIALLY MIX WITH SLEET OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. FOR
AREAS OVER NE PIEDMONT...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER NE PIEDMONT EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF GRANVILLE AND PERSON COUNTY.

EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SURFACE TEMPS A SHADE
BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE NW PIEDMONT WITH LONGEST
DURATION OVER FORSYTH COUNTY. WITH MODELS PROJECTING FAIRLY DECENT
LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS (ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE) WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY DUAL JET
STRUCTURE...PRECIP RATES MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER
NW PIEDMONT. DUE TO POTENTIAL OF PRECIP AMOUNTS AND DURATION...WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FORSYTH COUNTY AND MENTION POSSIBILITY
OF ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF NW PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS ANY
ICING IN THE TRIANGLE AREA WILL BE SPOTTY AND FAIRLY LIGHT.

BIGGEST CAVEATS TO FORECAST WILL BE : 1.) IF PRECIP STARTS SOONER OR
IS HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED AT ONSET...THEN SIGNIFICANT ICING (1/4INCH)
WILL OCCUR OVER MOST OF NW PIEDMONT WITH A LIGHT GLAZE INTO THE NE
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT; 2.) POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OFF
SC COAST AND OFF NE GULF COAST. IF CONVECTION OCCURS AND IS
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, THIS COULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
CENTRAL NC RESULTING IN LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS (THUS LIMITING ICE
ACCRUAL).

DIMINISHED FREEZING RAIN THREAT AFTER 15Z IN THE NW PIEDMONT AS
STRONG WAA ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE SHOULD MIX OUT RESIDUAL COLD
POCKETS NEAR SURFACE BY THAT TIME. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THEN DIMINISHES SW-NE THU NIGHT. DID SLOW PRECIP DIMINISHING
TREND A FEW HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TRICKY INT EH SE
AND FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF FORECAST AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STABLE LAYER WILL BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO PREVENT MUCH INLAND
ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR NEAR SURFACE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FAR SE EARLY THU EVENING AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
REGION.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FRI.

[john b]

Hey, new here. I hope we see some winter here in Ga!!!
john

[JenyEliza]

Hey, new here. I hope we see some winter here in Ga!!!
john

There is a remote possibility tonight. But...stay tuned. Winter's just gearing up...so I hope we get a couple of really good shots at it. We're WAY overdue.

Woodstock generally does pretty well when we do have really good storms.

I used to live there...and we always got more snow than those further south.

[JenyEliza]

When the first round of precip(very light and brief) started about 2 hours ago... I could have swore there was a little sleet mixed in. It's well into the 40's though, and I have seen no evidence since.

Cable and Internet is hooked up now...

I saw that patch of precip move your way, but the Short Term forecast said it was rain. I didn't want to post you might get sleet if you weren't going to. I know how hard those kind of let downs are on you.

Looks like things could get slightly interesting tonight...as there's more moisture to come...and we aren't even close to our predicted high. Three more hours and the sun goes down--and so do the temps.

The first bands of r*in/*snow* or sleet should be moving through my area between now and 4pm. Right about when things start cooling off. *crossing fingers*

Glad you've got everything hooked up now.

[john b]

its 36 here, think we might see something tonight?

[vbhoutex]

Looks interesting over N GA and SC on Northward

[txwatcher91]

I have seen a few snow flurries here. Current temp is 36F.

[JenyEliza]

its 36 here, think we might see something tonight?

It's 38 (and falling) where I'm at....I'm thinking the possibilities are looking really good for some *snow/sleet*, not *ain.

I'm certainly encouraged--but I don't want to jinx it yet.

I'll post when we see the first bit of activity at my area--please do the same.

Jen

[JenyEliza]

Looks interesting over N GA and SC on Northward

Looks like we'll have quite a bit of moisture to work with this afternoon/this evening....only question is if the cold will be sufficient for snow...and where.

[JenyEliza]

I have seen a few snow flurries here. Current temp is 36F.

Quite a positive development! Keep posting your conditions as you can.

[Brent]

There was a report from Pickens County, GA of a brief snow shower at a higher elevation(not sure how high) earlier...

[txwatcher91]

I have seen a few snow flurries here. Current temp is 36F.

Quite a positive development! Keep posting your conditions as you can.

I will try to. I have had it snow here in NC with temps as high as 39F,so don't give up hope for snow yet.

[JenyEliza]

There was a report from Pickens County, GA of a brief snow shower at a higher elevation(not sure how high) earlier...

Pickens County is up in the NE corner of GA near the foothills of the Appalaichans. They generally do better in the snow dept. than those closer to Atlanta.

But...this *snow* stuff is getting closer, so I'm cautiously hopeful we'll see some in our area.

If we do...there's a webcam near us I can post the link to.

[Brent]

There was a report from Pickens County, GA of a brief snow shower at a higher elevation(not sure how high) earlier...

Pickens County is up in the NE corner of GA near the foothills of the Appalaichans. They generally do better in the snow dept. than those closer to Atlanta.

But...this *snow* stuff is getting closer, so I'm cautiously hopeful we'll see some in our area.

If we do...there's a webcam near us I can post the link to.

Actually... Pickens County is the county to the north of Cherokee. The city of Jasper. My aunt lives up there...

Need to closely watch the precip coming in later... it's only 40 at ATL at almost 3pm with a DP of 25!! Could be a lot more significant icing than forecast(keyword is COULD).

[JenyEliza]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

GAZ042-048-049-052>062-066>076-078>084-089>091-093>095-142100-
BALDWIN-BIBB-BUTTS-CARROLL-CHATTAHOOCHEE-CLAYTON-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
FAYETTE-GLASCOCK-HANCOCK-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-
JONES-LAMAR-MACON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MORGAN-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-
PEACH-PIKE-PUTNAM-SPALDING-TALBOT-TAYLOR-TROUP-TWIGGS-UPSON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WILKINSON-
154 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

.NOW...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL AFFECT THE AREAS FROM FRANKLIN TO CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA...AND FROM COVINGTON TO ATHENS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 400 PM EST...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW ICY PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION.

$$

[JenyEliza]

There was a report from Pickens County, GA of a brief snow shower at a higher elevation(not sure how high) earlier...

Pickens County is up in the NE corner of GA near the foothills of the Appalaichans. They generally do better in the snow dept. than those closer to Atlanta.

But...this *snow* stuff is getting closer, so I'm cautiously hopeful we'll see some in our area.

If we do...there's a webcam near us I can post the link to.

Actually... Pickens County is the county to the north of Cherokee. The city of Jasper. My aunt lives up there...

Need to closely watch the precip coming in later... it's only 40 at ATL at almost 3pm with a DP of 25!! Could be a lot more significant icing than forecast(keyword is COULD).

One county north of Cherokee IS the foothills of the mountains, Brent. I've lived here 38 years, I should know.

Pickens County is usually one of the first school systems to close when this kind of weather comes up. All those two lane, mountainy roads covered with wintery precip and school buses doesn't mix.

At any rate...yes...it's beginning to look like this might be a bust from what they said last night, or even at 5:30 this morning. I won't call bust just yet and put a jinx on things...but, things are looking up. Yay!