Chris Again

fuzzyblow · #21 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 2:33 pm

O . M . G . :shocked!:

Models showing Chris recurving in Atlantic and hit New York as a cat.4 in 10 days ???
Is it true ??
Damn !! where is everybody ?? :sick:

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,:A:

MiamiensisWx · #22 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:22 pm

This is not a real bulletin...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHRIS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL
11AM EST

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER... NOW WITH 150MPH WINDS... EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF WESTERN CUBA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLAMINGO AND CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO SARASOTA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM HOMESTEAD AND THE UPPER TIP OF THE KEYS NORTHWARD TO STUART.

AT 11AM EST... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS NEAR 23N/89W... AROUND A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.

CHRIS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TURN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150MPH. IF ANYONE NEEDS ME... I WILL BE TAKING A BREAK... IF THE END ARRIVES, THAT IS.

FORECASTER AVILA

By the way, the BAMM models loop Chris around in the same general areas for several days, while the LBAR takes Chris into the Mediterranean Sea as a Category Four hurricane. Uh-oh... the GFDL takes Chris into Africa as an intense storm, while the GFS takes it into New York before merging with a front!

#23 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:29 pm

where do you get these "discussions" from?

hurricanefreak1988 · #24 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:56 pm

Weren't you paying attention? CVW made it up for fun.

#25 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:58 pm

Oh, ok...I thought he was really typing those for fun...*slaps self* LOL :oops:

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:59 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Oh, ok...I thought he was really typing those for fun...*slaps self* LOL

In some way it looks like a real discussion right?

#27 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Dec 10, 2005 6:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Oh, ok...I thought he was really typing those for fun...*slaps self* LOL

In some way it looks like a real discussion right?

Yes, and Availa has been making some fun discussions during Epsilon, so, I assumed, and died because of "assumimg"!!! :lol:

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:54 pm

HURRICANE CHRIS (WP892005) ON 20051215 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051215 1800 051216 0600 051216 1800 051217 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 179.0W 22.3N 173.6W 20.0N 172.5W 18.4N 173.0W
BAMM 25.0N 179.0W 23.2N 173.9W 21.2N 171.8W 19.7N 171.6W
SHIP 100KTS 72KTS 45KTS 18KTS
DSHP 100KTS 72KTS 45KTS 18KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051217 1800 051218 1800 051219 1800 051220 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 173.6W 14.8N 175.4W 13.8N 179.3W 14.3N 178.0E
BAMM 18.4N 171.8W 15.6N 173.2W 14.0N 177.7W 14.9N 177.8E
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 179.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 25.1N LONM12 = 175.8W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 38KT
LATM24 = 25.3N LONM24 = 170.6W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 945MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

Hurricane Chris at WPAC with 100kts.

HURRICANE CHRIS (CP892005) ON 20051215 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051215 1800 051216 0600 051216 1800 051217 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 139.0W 23.3N 133.9W 21.8N 127.9W 20.2N 121.3W
BAMM 25.0N 139.0W 23.4N 136.8W 22.3N 134.0W 21.8N 129.7W
LBAR 25.0N 139.0W 24.5N 133.7W 23.1N 128.6W 21.6N 123.5W
SHIP 100KTS 50KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 100KTS 50KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051217 1800 051218 1800 051219 1800 051220 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 115.2W 22.3N 104.9W 25.2N 95.2W 28.9N 77.8W
BAMM 21.4N 124.7W 22.7N 118.7W 24.3N 110.7W 25.8N 100.4W
LBAR 21.1N 119.2W 23.4N 113.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 139.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 144.4W DIRM12 = 94DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 149.8W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

Hurricane Chris at CPAC with 100kts.

Chris is everywhere in the world.

WindRunner · #29 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:59 pm

But I believe 179W is still CPAC . . . I'm not sure what they were thinking. :roll:

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:01 pm

WindRunner wrote:But I believe 179W is still CPAC . . . I'm not sure what they were thinking.

Remember they are testing and anything is possible in the data.

#31 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:03 pm

Get them to try placing it around 51.5N 0.4W then. :lol:

WindRunner · #32 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:
WindRunner wrote:But I believe 179W is still CPAC . . . I'm not sure what they were thinking.

Remember they are testing and anything is possible in the data.

But you would think they could at least keep their basins straight . . . whatever they want, though.

Website · #33 Postby **Brent** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:27 pm

I think someone is bored down there... :lol:

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 6:08 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS (AL892005) ON 20051209 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051209 1800 051210 0600 051210 1800 051211 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051211 1800 051212 1800 051213 1800 051214 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 84.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 83.8W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 80.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

I thought that they would forget about testing Chris but here they are again with the first test of the new year for Chris.Now let's see when the real Chris forms what will it do.

#35 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:31 pm

what is going on?????

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:44 pm

fact789 wrote:what is going on?????

They haved been doing test of the models and the name they selected is Chris so anything for real here.

mike815 · #37 Postby **mike815** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:45 pm

Lol good one Avila

#38 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:48 pm

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 70KT

Hmmm... Winds 30 knots currently, forcasted to jump to 70 knots in 12 hours... :eek:

#39 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:49 pm

how do u know? r u just making this up as u go?

#40 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:51 pm

no, its towards the bottom of the model thingy

Chris Again

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