Could this be a sign?

[wxcrazytwo]

In know this is part of the element for busy cane season, but does it really matter, if it is true?

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyID=2005-12-09T161635Z_01_SPI958347_RTRIDST_0_SCIENCE-ENVIRONMENT-SAHEL-DC.XML

[Brent]

[HURAKAN]

"Many of the hurricanes which reach Florida or the United States are formed here," said Amadou Gaye, head of Dakar University's Atmospheric Physics Laboratory.

President Bush next target in his war agaisnt terrorism?

Hey, doesn't NATURAL terrorism count as well!

Seriously, if his theory is right, in the next few years the Cape Verde Season could be very active.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Bush doesn't care about the weather:

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story. ... 875178.htm

[gatorcane]

well 2005 saw very few African grown storms. They were mostly homegrown which is somewhat unusual.

[HurricaneBill]

well 2005 saw very few African grown storms. They were mostly homegrown which is somewhat unusual.

I think Hurricane Irene was the sole Cape Verde hurricane of 2005.

[hurricanetrack]

So will this mean the end of SAL as we know it?

I cannot imagine what it will be like to have a season like 1995 with all the CV hurricanes but several of them hit the East Coast instead of missing out to sea.

It will all depend on the upper air pattern by next August- persistent strong trough- few hurricanes could threaten (obviously it only takes one) but if we have a strong western Atlantic ridge, look out! Too strong, and it's Gulf time again. Not good.

Also- when is Puerto Rico and the Lesser Anitlles going to have another hurricane. It's been a while, yes?

[cycloneye]

Also- when is Puerto Rico and the Lesser Anitlles going to have another hurricane. It's been a while, yes?

Mark I know you want to visit Puerto Rico and the islands to chase when something may threat this area but I hope that is many years ahead and not in 2006.

However seriously the NE Caribbean has not seen a hurricane strike since 1998 when Georges came and 1999 when Lenny the crazy cane moved thru the NE Caribbean so are we due in 2006? We will know in 6 months to see how the pattern shapes up in the atlantic.

[no advance]

Hopefully for PR the drought will continue. Like the 70s and 80s.

[Ixolib]

This - and many other ingredients - all add up to define the so-called "period of heightened activity in the tropics". Those "periods" happen for a reason, and a wetter Africa is one of the reasons.

[Derek Ortt]

matt,

the only difference between 2004 and 1995 was that in 04, the CV storms hit the USA. We already saw a 1995 with everything making landfall here

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What would global warming do to the Sahel? I'm not jumping
to any conclusions- I am not ruling out natural variation- but I would just like to know whether global warming would make the Sahel wetter or drier...

[weatherwindow]

sahel rainfall was considered a major yardstick in the predictive formulas of bill gray since the late 80s. however, since the 1995 upswing in activity, there has been little postive correlation between observed trop cyclone formation and sahel precipitation. dramatic increases in trop activity have occurred in the face of a persistent drought in the sahel. last year, dr gray effectively eliminated the index of sahel rainfall from his statistical formula, noting the apparent absence of a significant correlation over the last ten years. that said, the impact of sahel rainfall has solid intuitive appeal as an indicator of the instability and vertical development of the wave trains approaching the main development area in the eastern atlantic. however, it appears that sahel rainfall, of and by itself, has not been a good predictor of activity in the atlantic basin.in the last decade......rich

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

sahel rainfall was considered a major yardstick in the predictive formulas of bill gray since the late 80s. however, since the 1995 upswing in activity, there has been little postive correlation between observed trop cyclone formation and sahel precipitation. dramatic increases in trop activity have occurred in the face of a persistent drought in the sahel. last year, dr gray effectively eliminated the index of sahel rainfall from his statistical formula, noting the apparent absence of a significant correlation over the last ten years. that said, the impact of sahel rainfall has solid intuitive appeal as an indicator of the instability and vertical development of the wave trains approaching the main development area in the eastern atlantic. however, it appears that sahel rainfall, of and by itself, has not been a good predictor of activity in the atlantic basin.in the last decade......rich

Thank you for the insight.

[f5]

people use to refer to cape verde storms as the biggest threat beacuse those are usually the strongest storms.this year people went to bed it was a 40 mph tropical storm wake up the next morning its a category 5.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

people use to refer to cape verde storms as the biggest threat beacuse those are usually the strongest storms.this year people went to bed it was a 40 mph tropical storm wake up the next morning its a category 5.

Yup it was scary to see the night before a tropical storm
become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic--
especially with that projected track aimed towards FL's SW Coast-
That gave me a serious scare. Thankfully for me Wilma
stayed well south of Tampa Bay, but not without putting a
scare in me while I watched it anxiously for a week.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am happy the drought is ending for those people.

[Rieyeuxs]

I'm not -removed- or ill wishing for anyone, but I am surprised that the upper East Coast (Georgia, South and North Carolina) haven't had a major direct hit. They've had a couple of close calls and certainly a lot of rain, but I would think they're as overdue as Puerto Rico

/may both areas stay safe. I've just registering a comment.