Great Thread: Truly Learning About Storms (EDITED)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

Great Thread: Truly Learning About Storms (EDITED)

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:00 pm

*EDITED*

Here is what I originally wrote here...

CapeVerdeWave wrote:If you look at pictures of Camille's damage, do you notice that most of the damage was from surge? Also, do you notice that some structures are entirely destroyed while others appear pretty intact (other than for internal damage inside the structures)? If Camille was a Category Five, or if Camille's sustained winds were even near as strong as mistakenly indicated (190MPH), you would see complete destruction. If Camille had sustained Category Five, or even strong Category Four, winds, you would see nearly everything just about leveled. However, you don't see that very much in the pictures of Camille's damage. I think Camille might have been a Category Four, or even a Category Three, at landfall. The wind damage in Camille just does really add up to Category Five, or even possibly strong Category Four, destruction. I am not saying at all that Camille was not devastating or destructive; I am just saying that Camille is very likely less intense than originally thought. In fact, Camille might have been about the same strength as Katrina is now believed to be: a low-end to moderate Category Three. Also, even with the surge, although Camille was devastating, I think Katrina beats Camille in both death and destruction by far. In fact, if Camille is weaker than thought (which is highly likely), Camille's records would likely have very easily been broken some day. This means that, if many people had known that Camille was much less intense than thought and seen what a Category Three or Category Four storm (which Camille likely actually was) could do, it is possible that some of the unexpected damage and complacentness of many residents who did not leave for Katrina might have been avoided. When you think about it, Camille likely weakened before landfall like Katrina did. Even at it's peak intensity, I think Camille was still a Category Four or borderline Category Four/Category Five with the highest sustained winds at 150MPH to 155MPH. Even if Camille did actually reach Category Five status at one point, I think the highest sustained winds were closer to 160MPH to 165MPH - not 190MPH. The 190MPH winds in Camille were gusts. If people had this knowledge before Katrina struck, some might have known that there would highly likely come a day that Camille's records would be broken and that even a weakening storm or Category Three at landfall could cause devastation. This might have saved many lives from Katrina. Who agrees?

This is my opinion. Any thoughts?

P.s.: The reason why some people didn't leave for Katrina at first was because they didn't think it would be worse than Camille. If they had known the truth I said above about Camille, destruction, and how even low-end Category Three or weakening storms can cause complete devastation, lives may have been saved from Katrina's wrath. Do you agree?
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Dec 09, 2005 5:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#2 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:31 pm

I agree completely. That is the reason why I have always sticked to my thinking that Camille was not a 5 at landfall. I've seen numerous damage photos and they show surge damage, not wind damage. And remember that buildings back then were not built as strong as they are now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#3 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:32 pm

I agree. Camille was perhaps strong 3/weak category
4 at landfall. It's cat-5 status in the Central GOM enabled
it to generate a devastating surge

I think Camille's worst winds were more compact than Katrina's,
hence the surge and extent of damage was not as bad as
Katrina's
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:38 pm

Katrina did 3 times as much damage over a much larger a area. The surge was at least 7 feet higher then Camille. End of story Camille was not a cat5 at landfall. In fact many other storms over the last 10 years weaken before making the northern gulf coast. I think dry air gets draw into the storm as it moves northward. In also the layer of warm water is not deep enough. Unless something was much different in 1969 theres no way in all heck that Camille was a cat5.

I'm sorry Camille you have been beat big time by Katrina!!! :grrr:
0 likes   

Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:56 pm

Ok then. What about the 120 mph sustained winds over 100 miles inland? The 909 mb pressure at landfall? Reports that the wind was so noisy that you had to cover your ears? Numerous gusts in upper 100-lower 200 mph range. Camille was indeed a 5 at landfall, and not a borderline. We're talking at least 145-155 kt IMO. The extreme winds were likely in small areas so maybe thats why the photos don't show that much wind damage.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:06 pm

Scorpion wrote:Ok then. What about the 120 mph sustained winds over 100 miles inland? The 909 mb pressure at landfall? Reports that the wind was so noisy that you had to cover your ears? Numerous gusts in upper 100-lower 200 mph range. Camille was indeed a 5 at landfall, and not a borderline. We're talking at least 145-155 kt IMO. The extreme winds were likely in small areas so maybe thats why the photos don't show that much wind damage.


I just remembered that damage doesn't actually tell the tale of a storm, but still, I believe that Camille was not a 5.

Where did the 120 mph sustained winds come from? Remember this is from 1969.

75 mph winds can be noisy enough to make you cover your ears. IIRC 190 mph was the highest official gust recorded, which translates to sustained winds in the low Cat 4 range.

The 909 mb pressure could've been a false report, even if it wasn't, Wilma was a Cat 4 sub-900.

And, finally, I want to say that Camille WAS NOT a midget, small hurricane. According the many pro mets here, it was actually average sized, about the size of Ivan.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

#7 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:08 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I agree. Camille was perhaps strong 3/weak category
4 at landfall. It's cat-5 status in the Central GOM enabled
it to generate a devastating surge

I think Camille's worst winds were more compact than Katrina's,
hence the surge and extent of damage was not as bad as
Katrina's


There is no such thing as a "weak" category 4 hurricane. :wink:
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:09 pm

I believe that the nhc will upgrade Wilma to around 160 mph at that first report on post report. In have it at max of 185 mph...

I don't understand how a cat5 the size of Ivan can hit the northern Gulf coast. When every other storm has weaken trying the same thing?
0 likes   

Scorpion

#9 Postby Scorpion » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:11 pm

Well 190 mph gusts still translates to a 135 kt hurricane, borderline 4/5.
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

#10 Postby Agua » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:16 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Where did the 120 mph sustained winds come from? Remember this is from 1969.


Measured at Columbia, Mississippi: 90 miles north.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:17 pm

130 knot hurricane the size of Ivan moving quickly inland could still have winds of that 90 miles inland.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#12 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:50 pm

I'd completely agree if there wasnt a 224mph wind gust in Biloxi

But 190 is insane more like 155-165
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#13 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:51 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I agree. Camille was perhaps strong 3/weak category
4 at landfall. It's cat-5 status in the Central GOM enabled
it to generate a devastating surge

I think Camille's worst winds were more compact than Katrina's,
hence the surge and extent of damage was not as bad as
Katrina's


There is no such thing as a "weak" category 4 hurricane. :wink:


Oh I meant low end category 4 130-140 mph...instead of 140-155 mph :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:52 pm

Well I really don't know the facts...I have to admit...my post was
pure speculation
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#15 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:00 pm

The big thing is the northern gulf can't support a cat5. Remember Ivan,Opal,Dennis,katrina??? A high end cat3 into lower 4 is hard for that part of the Gulf.

Also because of this if New orleans in the buttom part of LA was not sinking. We could almost build the levees to high end cat3s stardards. In feel safe putting people back into New orleans. Buts sinking so it will not work. But there not going to have to worry about upper in cat4 or cat5.
0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#16 Postby AussieMark » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The big thing is the northern gulf can't support a cat5. Remember Ivan,Opal,Dennis,katrina??? A high end cat3 into lower 4 is hard for that part of the Gulf.


What about Frederic in 1979 came in as 130 mph hurricane and was strengthening at the time I think
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#17 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:14 pm

AussieMark wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The big thing is the northern gulf can't support a cat5. Remember Ivan,Opal,Dennis,katrina??? A high end cat3 into lower 4 is hard for that part of the Gulf.


What about Frederic in 1979 came in as 130 mph hurricane and was strengthening at the time I think


I don't think Fred was strengthening.

However, I don't believe Camille was at minimal Cat 4 strength, I think it was somewhere around 145-150 mph at landfall.
0 likes   

DoctorHurricane2003

#18 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:16 pm

Well I for one am CERTAINLY glad that certain people in this thread have the credentials to judge wind damage and strength of hurricanes!

People, for crying out loud. First off, remember Camille was much smaller than Katrina. Example: Ivan and Dennis were nearly the same strength and hit almost the same location, but Dennis did not cause as much damage. Why? Dennis was much smaller and moving much faster than Ivan.

Secondly just because the MAJORITY of systems weaken at landfall along the N GOM in what I would like to call "exceptionally good timing and placement of dry air and wind shear with respect to latitude and the coastline" does NOT mean that EVERY single one will.

I am greatly afraid that this mindset will continue and one day one will NOT weaken at landfall, and many deaths will occur. Please, for the love of God, get that idea out of your mind and analyze data as it comes in.


/rant
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#19 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:30 pm

Why can't people accept the fact that Camille was a CAT5?

Well said doctorhurricane!
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#20 Postby Lindaloo » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Katrina did 3 times as much damage over a much larger a area. The surge was at least 7 feet higher then Camille. End of story Camille was not a cat5 at landfall. In fact many other storms over the last 10 years weaken before making the northern gulf coast. I think dry air gets draw into the storm as it moves northward. In also the layer of warm water is not deep enough. Unless something was much different in 1969 theres no way in all heck that Camille was a cat5.

I'm sorry Camille you have been beat big time by Katrina!!! :grrr:


Data is data. I believe the weather experts. Second, Katrina was a much bigger storm than Camille.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests