Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[yzerfan]

Still a hurricane in the latest advisory. Note it has been issued by the HPC as happens sometimes.

So Epsilon broke the NHC?

[Windtalker1]

It is not looking very healthy any more and does not look very much like a hurricane. Shear now appears to be impacting it.

For Now....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its trying to form deeper convection. With a small reformation of the western wall.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I think this is the real deal this time. (finally!)

I bet the NHC is going to throw a party marking the last advisory on Epsilon.

[cjrciadt]

120kt sheer over the US!!!!!

[P.K.]

So Epsilon broke the NHC?

I guess as it is far out to sea and a threat to more fish than people they are letting them practice advisories on it. (Assuming the HPC are the backup for the NHC if they had any problems there)

[MiamiensisWx]

The eye has now disappeared from Epsilon and the center is now not wrapped around by convection due to shear. Check out the latest NHC infra-red and visible imagery! If convection does not get better organized, I think Epsilon will finally be downgraded to a tropical storm. Who agrees?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Epsilon's current ACE is 13, so adding that to the Arlene-Delta ACE gives 2005 an ACE of 237.6...2nd place, behind 1950 at 243. With Epsilon starting to finally fade away, we'll need Zeta to push us past the record...

BTW, Epsilon's ACE has now surpassed Irene's, and Maria's 13.9 is likely to be passed as well.

[WindRunner]

Definately a downgrade at 10. Horrible IR presentation, looks like a massive thunderstorm right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In the record year reminds in the hands of 1950...Its still king even with only 13 named storms!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Take that 2005 you lose!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What was the Ace for hurricane DOG? It appears to be as strong as Wilma!

[Scorpion]

I doubt Dog had 160 kt winds. Look at its location. I dont think the heat content there is enough to give a hurricane that extreme of an intensity, especially while moving north.

[wxmann_91]

Definately a downgrade at 10. Horrible IR presentation, looks like a massive thunderstorm right now.

Let's hope so. Here are some stats on Epsy:

If that one advisory that Epsy was a TS it was a hurricane, then we would've had 21 consecutive advisories at which Epsy was a hurricane, or 5.25 days.

This was the forecast intensity for Epsy when it was first upgraded to hurricane status:

INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

This was the forecast this morning (07/1500Z), and note also their track errors (15 degrees of latitude):

INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.1N 37.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

Not bashing NHC, but just wanted to point out how baffling Epsy has been to the scientists there. It's always interesting to see verification. PLEASE DON'T TAKE THIS AS A NEGATIVE COMMENT. IS RATHER JUST SOME CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think Dog was anywhere near as strong as said. I can't believe a cat5 can form that far north. NO WAY Dog was likely no more then 130 knots. That would take alot of the Ace away from 1950!

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think Dog was anywhere near as strong as said. I can't believe a cat5 can form that far north. NO WAY Dog was likely no more then 130 knots. That would take alot of the Ace away from 1950!

I think Dog was closer to Isabel's strength (e.g., 160MPH to 165MPH sustained winds) at it's peak intensity as a Category Five. Otherwise, Dog's actual peak intensity might be even lower - even as low as a very strong Category Four, in the 150MPH to 155MPH sustained winds range. Do you agree?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree...That would come close to given 2005 the record if they relooked Dog. I hope they drop his strength into 150 mph at least.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051208 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051208 0000 051208 1200 051209 0000 051209 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 38.8W 25.1N 39.5W 21.3N 39.6W 18.2N 39.0W
BAMM 28.2N 38.8W 26.3N 39.6W 23.3N 40.1W 20.6N 40.8W
A98E 28.2N 38.8W 27.2N 39.9W 25.5N 40.1W 24.2N 37.9W
LBAR 28.2N 38.8W 27.0N 38.9W 25.2N 38.6W 23.4N 37.7W
SHIP 55KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS
DSHP 55KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051210 0000 051211 0000 051212 0000 051213 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 37.7W 13.0N 31.4W 13.0N 20.5W 18.6N 8.0W
BAMM 18.4N 41.2W 15.3N 42.8W 13.5N 45.6W 11.7N 50.3W
A98E 23.4N 35.1W 21.8N 29.4W 21.8N 20.7W 26.0N 13.0W
LBAR 22.1N 35.7W 23.0N 29.7W 24.9N 21.8W 27.0N 12.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.2N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.4N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 233DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 34.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM



DOWNGRADED!!.No surprise due to sat presentation tonight.

[brunota2003]

burn, set back, NOOOO!!! *crys for Epsilon*

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on Eppy!!! Become a hurricane again please we need 5 more ace!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Its over folks...Eppy has succombed to the shear ...Think it has 1 day to live