Why is this storm so hard to predict?

[bzukajo]

This snow event will arrive here in New England in about 30 hrs. Not one of the local mets here will take a stab at snowfall totals? They are litteraly saying we will just have to wait and see. Now, these guys are usualy clamering to be first out of the gate with snowfall totals....even when they are going to be WAY off........what gives this time?

[NoreasterJer06]

there are alot of variable here... and I think the inaccurate forecasting of the last storm has scared them off a bit... Everything I've read and believe is simply saying over 6"... Some of the aspects could lead this storm to be big... but it would argue against climatology as big storms this early are rare... and it could put up number that we haven't seen this early since 1960... They don't want to be wrong... and wher ethe big snow will fall remains to be seen... just as how much this thing will bomb out yet is still unknown

[Dave C]

The last storm was badly forecasted by the models and they put out snow totals too early and the storm was weaker and sheared off. They're being more responsable and waiting till 24 hrs out or so before talking amounts. The models are somewhat at odds with this storm as well. I've been reading the discussions from the NWS in Taunton and they seem pretty perplexed about this one.