Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

whereverwx · #561 Postby **whereverwx** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:18 pm

Getting better looking, again...

Coredesat · #562 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:23 pm

This thing just doesn't know when to die.

#563 Postby **coriolis** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:24 pm

Re: the ACE score. I looked at Senorpepr's thread in the Analysis forum. I should have looked there first before going off on my own wild goose chase :oops:

#564 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:08 pm

VERIFICATION MAP!

fuzzyblow · #565 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:15 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:This thing just doesn't know when to die.

LOL Dear ignorant Epsilon,,, in french (Québec) we say : tête heureuse ! :moon:

fuzzyblow · #566 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:24 pm

Hum, sorry... :oops:

#567 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:34 am

LET 2005 CONTINUE, EPSILON LOOKING AS GOOD AS EVER!

#568 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:38 am

THERE IS NO END TO EPSILON! LOOK AT THIS FORMIDABLE HURRICANE!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #569 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:56 am

This is not going any where this thing is starting to form deeper convection. Who's your daddy NHC!!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #570 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:05 am

Come on deep convection wrap all the way around. Make the t numbers rise to 5.0. Come on get the record for strength!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #571 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:45 am

Hey nhc guest your going to have to keep it a hurricane...Wahooo!!!

07/0545 UTC 30.1N 35.9W T4.0/4.0 EPSILON

Coredesat · #572 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:56 am

Look at that formidable front approaching it. :eek:

Coredesat · #573 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:03 am

It seems to be punching a hole in the area of shear ahead of it:

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #574 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:55 am

SW quadrant looks open. If the convection wraps back around we're looking at another day before the next weakening cycle.

#575 Postby **Cookiely** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 5:15 am

cycloneye wrote:070237
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS.

Look how Forecaster Franklin starts his 10 PM EST discussion.

Avila continues this thought in the 4am discussion. Low confidence forecast on intensity. No joike! :lol:

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 32
Statement as of 4:00 am EST on December 07, 2005
the end is in sight...yes...but not quite yet. I thought I was going
to find a weakening system and instead I found that Epsilon is
still a hurricane. As it has done every morning...the convection
has redeveloped around the large and distinct eye....kicking the
Dvorak T-numbers back up again. All agencies support hurricane
intensity. The hurricane is currently located within the region of
light winds associated with the axis of an upper trough. However...
the weakening process has to begin very soon since strong
high-level winds from the same trough are already heading toward
the core of the hurricane. With this upper-level wind pattern...I
have no option but to forecast weakening at a fast pace.
Neverthereless...there is very little confidence in the intensity
forecast.
Epsilon is moving toward the southwest or 220 degrees at 8 knots
embedded in the flow between a mid-level ridge and a developing
trough to the southeast. According to the global models...this
steering pattern is expected to persist until Epsilon becomes
absorbed by a frontal system in 3 days.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/0900z 29.8n 36.3w 65 kt
12hr VT 07/1800z 28.7n 37.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 08/0600z 27.7n 38.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 08/1800z 26.5n 39.5w 30 kt
48hr VT 09/0600z 26.0n 40.0w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 10/0600z...absorbed by frontal system

$$

#576 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 6:12 am

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE.

4 AM EST Discussion

Avila continues to provide great humor to his discussions.

HurricaneGirl · #577 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 7:12 am

Crazy!!

#578 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 7:27 am

The infrared view early this Wednesday morning sure seems to indicate that Epsilon is feeling no effects from the shear, at least not so far.

Coredesat · #579 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 7:41 am

That area of weakening shear ahead of the jet makes me think that Epsilon can survive at least a couple more days. Unfortunately. The strongest shear it will see before the jet arrives in about 48 hours is probably around 40 kt, which is nothing new to this hurricane. Even the mid-level shear is only as strong as 20 kt or so before the jet.

#580 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 07, 2005 7:43 am

TPNT KGWC 071231
A. HURRICANE EPSILON (TWENTY-NINE)
B. 07/1131Z (127)
C. 29.4N/5
D. 36.9W/8
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS -07/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

11A/ PBO 18NM IRRG EYE/ANMTN. 113NM OW RNG WITH
WMG EYE AND DG BND YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. FT BASED ON DT.
PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (LG CLR EYE)

WOLLMANN

Air Firce T numbers has a 4.0 number.

Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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