Philip Klotzbach/Dr Grays First 2006 Outlook=17/9/5

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/dec2005/

Started very high (17/9/5) not the usual as always he has been small in the numbers in the december outlooks.But read the whole report that is very interesting.You can post comments about it here so post away.What strikes about it is the fact that he says the US will see less landfalling systems than 2004 and 2005.

ABSTRACT



Information obtained through November 2005 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). All predictors are calling for an active season. Analog predictors have also been utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Niño conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niña conditions will develop.


Above is the Abstract from the report.

[HURAKAN]

2006: Another disaster year?

[James]

I must confess I never thought he'd start out that high. Don't his numbers quite often dip just short of the total as well?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Very intriguing report. Just a reminder to people out there not to get too excited/worried, as things can change quickly between now and June (Just look at last years December forecast, for example)

[Anonymous]

Wow...I thought I was in trouble. I double-checked my numbers...and my forecast was 17/10/5...which I decided about two weeks ago. Dr. Gray...I AGREE!

[Brent]

[Scorpion]

Game on . The numbers can only go higher.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

^ wrong. Sorry, but they can go lower too. See: Dr. Gray's 1997 Forecast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who won the guesses Luis?

[vacanechaser]

^ wrong. Sorry, but they can go lower too. See: Dr. Gray's 1997 Forecast.

true.. however, 1997 wa san El Nino year... sort of unexpected if I remember... next year, the models are forecasting another neutral to La Nina season...

start preparing now guys.... were gonna need it



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scorpion]

^ wrong. Sorry, but they can go lower too. See: Dr. Gray's 1997 Forecast.

Ok that was due to an El Nino.

[sponger]

Less landfalls? I have alot of respect for him, but an easy assumption with the activity the last 2 years.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I know, but you still can't automatically assume things like that 6 months out.

Everyone just take a deep breath and calm down...

[cycloneye]

Who won the guesses Luis?

Nobody said 17/9/5 but there were some close ones.See thread that I bumped.

[KatDaddy]

This forecast should enforce the need for everyone in a hurricane prone area to be prepared by June 1st.

[wxmann_91]

Simple rule of thumb: A big event leads to the next event overhyped. A small event leads to the next event underhyped.

I highly doubt we will see the number of hurricanes that Dr. Gray is predicting. Too many variables to look at this far out. A dry MJO that sets in for the first half of next season could limit the final number of storms for all I know (like in 2004).

[Scorpion]

Simple rule of thumb: A big event leads to the next event overhyped. A small event leads to the next event underhyped.

I highly doubt we will see the number of hurricanes that Dr. Gray is predicting. Too many variables to look at this far out. A dry MJO that sets in for the first half of next season could limit the final number of storms for all I know (like in 2004).

No, this season was supposed to be much weaker than 2004 or even a bust during March and April and even May. People also declared the season a bust in late July/early August.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Um, no to you too. During March, April, and May, we were seeing the record SSTs and SSTAs beginning to pop, and that period is also when we found out that ENSO conditions would probably be neutral throughout the year. I can't speak for all people, but a big 'uh oh' popped into my head during that time period

[caribepr]

All I know is...prepare for the worst, hope for the best and we'll see soon enough. In blue water sailing we say, Plan your work, work your plan. It applies in most situations in life, it works here.
(That is why predictions are called exactly that...sorta like fishing is not called catching, even for the very best of them. Dr. Gray may be high, he may be low, bottom line is "Heads up, children!")

[Scorpion]

Um, no to you too. During March, April, and May, we were seeing the record SSTs and SSTAs beginning to pop, and that period is also when we found out that ENSO conditions would probably be neutral throughout the year. I can't speak for all people, but a big 'uh oh' popped into my head during that time period

Well I think you shouldn't be downplaying next season just because some anomolies are going down.