Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

#421 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:02 pm

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON AT 05/1500 UTC...IS NEAR 33.6N 35.1W OR ABOUT
545 MILES...WSW OF THE AZORES. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING ESE 7 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.. CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED SOME IN THE MORNING HOURS AND THE STORM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. EPSILON IS NOW THE LONGEST-LASTING HURRICANE OBSERVED
IN DECEMBER... ALMOST 3 DAYS. ONLY A SLOW DEMISE IS LIKELY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN SSTS OR SHEAR UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS ITS
LOCATION IN A COUPLE DAYS.

1 PM EST Discussion.

EPSILON IS NOW THE LONGEST-LASTING HURRICANE OBSERVED
IN DECEMBER...

Another record for the amazing and incredible full of records 2005 season.

#422 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:10 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:so it looks like it could be heading towards the carribean or florida by the looks of the 5 day

shhhhh before he hears you :me?:

#423 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:15 pm

Epsilon still:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1745 UTC 33.8N 34.5W T4.0/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean

Weatherfreak14 · #424 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:17 pm

not leting up yet. :eek:

Derek Ortt · #425 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:34 pm

I have to say that it appears if if the Dvorak numbers should be increasing

#426 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:35 pm

70kts

WHXX01 KWBC 051832
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051205 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051205 1800 051206 0600 051206 1800 051207 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.7N 34.7W 33.6N 33.0W 32.8N 33.1W 31.5N 34.8W
BAMM 33.7N 34.7W 33.0N 34.5W 31.9N 35.5W 30.9N 38.0W
A98E 33.7N 34.7W 33.4N 33.0W 32.8N 32.3W 32.6N 32.9W
LBAR 33.7N 34.7W 33.4N 32.8W 32.8N 31.4W 31.6N 31.0W
SHIP 70KTS 64KTS 55KTS 46KTS
DSHP 70KTS 64KTS 55KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051207 1800 051208 1800 051209 1800 051210 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.1N 37.0W 23.4N 39.4W 16.7N 39.7W 12.5N 38.4W
BAMM 29.9N 40.2W 26.4N 42.4W 22.5N 43.5W 18.7N 46.4W
A98E 31.4N 34.5W 27.5N 33.1W 24.5N 30.7W 22.6N 24.8W
LBAR 30.4N 30.9W 27.7N 31.7W 25.2N 29.5W 25.9N 25.5W
SHIP 35KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.7N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 33.9N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 38.8W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

DESTRUCTION5 · #427 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I have to say that it appears if if the Dvorak numbers should be increasing

Agree..May get to 100 MPH IMO before weakening...

#428 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:40 pm

The 18:00z BAMM run.

Website · #429 Postby **Brent** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:49 pm

Geez...

Swimdude · #430 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:52 pm

There's nothing like seeing Christmas avatars and taking about hurricanes at the same time. It's kinda freaky, actually. Someone needs to make a list of all of the records that were set this season... It would go on forever and ever.

#431 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:00 pm

TPNT KGWC 051820
A. HURRICANE EPSILON (TWENTY-NINE)
B. 05/1731Z (127)
C. 33.6N/2
D. 34.8W/5
E. FOUR/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS -05/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

11A/ PBO 45NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE IS LOCATED 110NM INTO
OW TEMP BAND. MG RING SURROUNDS EYE YIELDING NO EYE ADJUSTMENT.
DT IS 4.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (LARGE CLEAR EYE)

CAPUTO/KRAMER

Air Force sat estimates.Large clear eye is how they describe the center.

Derek do you agree with this sat estimate 4.5 which is above the 4.0 from SSD? Or it should be higher?

#432 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:06 pm

Deeper convection showing up

Website · #433 Postby **Brent** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:14 pm

Swimdude wrote:There's nothing like seeing Christmas avatars and taking about hurricanes at the same time. It's kinda freaky, actually. Someone needs to make a list of all of the records that were set this season... It would go on forever and ever.

Or talking about ice and snow and a hurricane at the same time...

#434 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:57 pm

#435 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:03 pm

This storm is going to have made one of the oddest paths I will have ever seen, no question.

-Andrew92

#436 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:40 pm

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

Another humor quote from Avila at discussion of the 4 PM EST advisorie.

flhurricaneguy · #437 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:50 pm

hopefully this is the last trick in the bag of 2005

#438 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:52 pm

4 PM EST Forecast Track.

jusforsean · #439 Postby **jusforsean** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:54 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
flhurricaneguy wrote:so it looks like it could be heading towards the carribean or florida by the looks of the 5 day

O.k. I am not understansing the Florida part?? There must be a mistake,,say it isnt sooo :crying:

flhurricaneguy · #440 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:59 pm

i was just looking at that track i dont think its out of the question

Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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