Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[Derek Ortt]

I am not really amused with that discussion, to be perfectly honest

[weatherwindow]

Its back up to 85 MPH:

after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images
indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more
symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday.
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this
basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are
no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain
the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the
facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the
best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water
...High shear and dry air......

Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong
mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global
models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge
which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward.
There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion.
Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward
the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be
highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I
heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?

Forecaster Avila

LOL, go Avila

......while he is no stewart, occaisonally avila shows a spark .....props, lixion........rich

[brunota2003]

I agree

[superfly]

THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

HAHAHA That's a great quote from Avila.

[Downdraft]

Sure looks really good to only be a cat 1 hurricane. I've seen 4's that don't look this good.

[gatorcane]

It's nearing the holidays and we are talking about Epsilon. I'm in utter shock....

[HURAKAN]

I think Epsilon's tenacity has proven unprecedented for the NHC to handle after going through 28 tropical systems before it!!!!

"To die or not to die, that's the question,"

Epsilon, 2005

[P.K.]

lol, think the storms are getting to him.

[AZS]

EPSILON not looking as good as before.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is simply unbelievable- downright shocking- even the hurricane center has no idea why it's strengthening- I TOLD YOU ALL
THAT HURRICANE VOODOO WAS REAL....we have to find the
voodooist...

[HurricaneGirl]

[HURAKAN]

WE SHOULD INFORM THE FBI & THE INTERPOL!!!!

THIS IS A MENACE TO HUMANITY AND TO ALL FISH. BY THE WAY, MAINLY FISH!!!!!!

"FISH ARE FRIENDS, NOT FOOD."

SHARK TALES?!?!?!

[brunota2003]

NO, Finding Nemo...!!!

[quandary]

I wonder if we'll have that chance in Epsilon or another storm to tie that record for majors. Also Epsilon is adding healthily to the ACE. We might beat 1995 because of it and possible Zeta.

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

Apparently Epsilon has become annular :

Epsilon continues to intensify and a very clear eye. it appears if Epsilon has become annular as there are no well defined rain bands, just a donut shaped system. These types of hurricanes usually are fairly stable in intensity; thus, only a very slow weakening is forecast, much slower than guidance. it should be noted that this was forecast yesterday, and we had steady intensification. it must be noted that the GFDL and GFDN indicate intensification to cat 2 intensity, with GFDN very close to cat 3.

A few days ago I would've bet a million dollars if someone said that Epsilon would become annular that he/she would be wrong.

[brunota2003]

when was the last time you saw a Cat 1 look so good???:

[Budro999]

I am not really amused with that discussion, to be perfectly honest

I don't necessarily think that Avila was trying to amuse anyone with his discussion. I believe he is baffled by the way a tropical cyclone has acted in conditions that most meteorologists would feel would weaken a cyclone quickly. I believe it is admirable that someone with his level of expertise would have the humility to admit that he cannot explain something that should be well within his grasp of knowledge. Also, it is December 4th, and we have a hurricane in the middle of nowhere that is not expected to affect land. Therefore, I don't blame him if he wants to poke fun at himself - at least he isn't having a nervous breakdown because some of his forecasts have not verified well.

What this storm does show all of us is that more research is required in just how tropopause temperatures can offset SSTs, particularly at high latitudes. More research also needs to be done in the differences between pure tropical cyclones and cyclones that have transitioned from being extratropical cyclones to tropical cyclones. As this season has taught us, the latter types clearly do not follow traditional rules of strengthening/weakening at all times.

[WindRunner]

Apparently Epsilon has become annular :

Epsilon continues to intensify and a very clear eye. it appears if Epsilon has become annular as there are no well defined rain bands, just a donut shaped system. These types of hurricanes usually are fairly stable in intensity; thus, only a very slow weakening is forecast, much slower than guidance. it should be noted that this was forecast yesterday, and we had steady intensification. it must be noted that the GFDL and GFDN indicate intensification to cat 2 intensity, with GFDN very close to cat 3.

A few days ago I would've bet a million dollars if someone said that Epsilon would become annular that he/she would be wrong.

I think he's saying if, because looking at that sat above, that would be the ugliest annular hurricane I've ever seen. It's kind of lopsided, too.

[CHRISTY]