Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[brunota2003]

it was a typo, thats all:

...Corrected first paragraph...

Epsilon maintains a ragged 20 N mi wide eye... but the convection
seems to be thinning out a little... especially east of the center.
The only convective tops colder than -50c are in the northwestern
semicircle. The convection does not appear all that vigorous...
and a Quikscat overpass around 22z did not reveal any winds
stronger than 50 kt in the western half of the circulation that it
sampled. Nevertheless... 00z Dvorak estimates ranged from 55 to 75
kt... although the data T numbers have all fallen to 4.0 or less.
Epsilon might or might not still be a hurricane... but in any case
it likely will not be one on Sunday... since it is headed for even
cooler waters while drier air and slightly stronger westerlies are
not far behind. The steady weakening indicated in the official
forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and is a little
more rapid that forecast by the SHIPS guidance.

[HURAKAN]

That's what I was thinking!

[HURAKAN]

By the way, now more than 300 posts discussing Epsilon!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think its going to weaken. I think we will be discussing this storm a week from now!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Has any storm ever above 30 north that formed this way ever made it south of 15 north. Then turned westward then effected the Islands or the United states with out falling part?

It still looks very good. In the models show it heading south of 25 north before turning westward. I think this could play out.

[Hurricaneman]

Has any storm ever above 30 north that formed this way ever made it south of 15 north. Then turned westward then effected the Islands or the United states with out falling part?

It still looks very good. In the models show it heading south of 25 north before turning westward. I think this could play out.

Im pretty sure that hasnt happened before

[HURAKAN]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051204 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051204 0600 051204 1800 051205 0600 051205 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.4N 41.1W 34.9N 37.8W 35.7N 34.7W 36.5N 32.7W
BAMM 34.4N 41.1W 34.4N 38.7W 34.3N 36.1W 34.0N 34.2W
A98E 34.4N 41.1W 34.7N 38.5W 35.5N 35.9W 35.6N 33.8W
LBAR 34.4N 41.1W 34.8N 38.2W 35.0N 35.2W 34.9N 32.7W
SHIP 60KTS 51KTS 43KTS 35KTS
DSHP 60KTS 51KTS 43KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051206 0600 051207 0600 051208 0600 051209 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.5N 31.4W 33.5N 33.6W 29.1N 39.3W 21.3N 44.6W
BAMM 33.1N 33.2W 30.2N 36.6W 25.6N 43.2W 20.7N 50.6W
A98E 34.9N 33.0W 33.3N 32.9W 31.0N 36.1W 24.5N 38.4W
LBAR 34.4N 29.8W 33.9N 26.0W 31.9N 26.8W 29.3N 29.5W
SHIP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.4N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 43.7W DIRM12 = 94DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 34.5N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM


EPSILON IS GIVING WAY ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

[HURAKAN]

STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD!

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 34.2N 39.9W T4.5/4.5 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean




Ummm the numbers went up once again to 4.5.If you look at the images it still looks pretty decent this morning.My take is that they downgraded it too fast.They could haved waited for it to make the transition to extratropical.Now they will upgrade again at 10 AM EST.

[Jim Hughes]

Epsilon's weakening to a tropical storm should be of no surprise if you have been looking at the solar wind EPAM data that I posted a URL for in my "The Space Weather effect upon Epsilon " Post.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=79108

The differential flux for 38-53 Kev has been falling the past 24 hours or so and it has been consistently below the 0.00e+03 level that I have previously spoken about. So nobody can accuse me of being a Monday morning quarterback here. I have stipulated levels for monitoring.

Now more eruptions could send it back over the important level that I have noticed but this is seeming less likely since sunspot Region 826 has magnetically simplified and it is no longer as active.

The other important electron fluence , > 2MeV continues to rise though.



Jim

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051204 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051204 1200 051205 0000 051205 1200 051206 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 39.8W 34.9N 36.4W 35.8N 33.8W 36.5N 32.1W
BAMM 34.3N 39.8W 34.3N 37.2W 34.3N 35.0W 33.8N 33.3W
A98E 34.3N 39.8W 34.5N 37.2W 35.1N 34.5W 35.3N 32.2W
LBAR 34.3N 39.8W 34.8N 36.7W 35.1N 34.0W 34.8N 31.9W
SHIP 75KTS 69KTS 57KTS 48KTS
DSHP 75KTS 69KTS 57KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051206 1200 051207 1200 051208 1200 051209 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.8N 31.6W 33.0N 35.2W 28.1N 39.4W 20.9N 42.5W
BAMM 32.7N 32.9W 30.5N 37.0W 26.4N 42.5W 21.9N 47.1W
A98E 35.0N 31.3W 33.8N 30.1W 31.8N 30.1W 26.4N 31.6W
LBAR 33.9N 29.5W 32.3N 28.1W 29.6N 28.6W 27.8N 30.4W
SHIP 39KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 92DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 34.5N LONM24 = 45.0W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM


12:00z Models as expected from the T numbers of 4.5 this morning haved upgraded Epsilon once again.75kts is the intensity.As I said in my above post they downgraded too quickly early this morning instead for waiting for the dry air,and the shear to do their job.

[superfly]

Epsilon is still maintaining a great structure. Amazing.

[AZS]

Good morning Epsilon

[weatherwindow]

dont know if anyone noticed but the intial pressure dropped 11 mb since the earlier model run and the 400am advisory...979 vs 990....wassup?......rich

[HURAKAN]

dont know if anyone noticed but the intial pressure dropped 11 mb since the earlier model run and the 400am advisory...979 vs 990....wassup?......rich

Remember that this is all based on estimates.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good this morning!

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[cjrciadt]

Epsilon loves syching us out! Still looks like a cane.

[Air Force Met]

Epsilon's weakening to a tropical storm should be of no surprise if you have been looking at the solar wind EPAM data that I posted a URL for in my "The Space Weather effect upon Epsilon " Post.

Hmmm...I would have thought it should have been of no surprise because it is sitting over 71-72 F water, getting some dry air in the backside of it, and it's December.

Call me crazy.

[brunota2003]

Its back up to 85 MPH:

after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images
indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more
symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday.
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this
basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are
no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain
the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the
facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the
best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water
...High shear and dry air.

Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong
mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global
models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge
which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward.
There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion.
Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward
the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be
highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I
heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?

Forecaster Avila

LOL, go Avila