Major Solar Flares

[Aslkahuna]

Rapidly developing region 826 has produced two major flares today-the largest a M7.6/1N at 1012Z which was followed by a Type II sweep burst with a shock speed of 718 km/sec. The ocurrence of the Type II sweep
suggests that a CME may have resulted from this event. Additional major flare activity is possible from this active region.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Not to much showing up on the LASCO images as of yet , from the events earlier today , but I would rather see the daily mpg before making any conclusions. The most recent M1.0 at 2030z was a LDE so we may see something more promising in the later images.



Jim

[Aslkahuna]

SEC reported a faint partial halo from the M7.8 on the daily summary. I'm in Tucson so it won't be until tomorrow night that I will be updating my homepage again or have a chance to observe the Sun-we were cloudy today)

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

SEC reported a faint partial halo from the M7.8 on the daily summary. I'm in Tucson so it won't be until tomorrow night that I will be updating my homepage again or have a chance to observe the Sun-we were cloudy today)

Steve

Trust me it was very faint. I would not be making any impact calls off of those images. Like I mentioned the best chance for increased geomagnetic storming may come from the latest M1 flare. I have not seen the particulars yet but I would be surprised if a Type ll did not occur.


Jim

[cgstorm5]

Not to oversimplify the complexities of space weather, but if we are entering a solar minimum doesn't that mean colder temps on Earth. I was wondering after all that activity in Sept. and then quiet led to this unbelievably cold air mass and early big chill for Europe. I understand about how the stratosphere is the key factor but how does the quieter Sun affect temperatures overall especially in winter.

I read about the end of Little Ice Age that hit in 1812 during a Maunder Minimum and after the eruption of Krakatoa. Is it even possible with the right timing and the new evidence of the thermohaline circulation slowing that a big climate shift could occur within this solar minimum through 2007?

[Jim Hughes]

Not to oversimplify the complexities of space weather, but if we are entering a solar minimum doesn't that mean colder temps on Earth. I was wondering after all that activity in Sept. and then quiet led to this unbelievably cold air mass and early big chill for Europe. I understand about how the stratosphere is the key factor but how does the quieter Sun affect temperatures overall especially in winter.

I read about the end of Little Ice Age that hit in 1812 during a Maunder Minimum and after the eruption of Krakatoa. Is it even possible with the right timing and the new evidence of the thermohaline circulation slowing that a big climate shift could occur within this solar minimum through 2007?

We would not necessarily see a wide spread cool pattern just because solar minimum is approaching. The atmosphere is more complexed than that. You also must take into consideration where you live in regards to whether a possible relationship might effect you.

You might not see the effects of one particular kind of space weather, if it possibly caused a negative NAO trend, if you lived out west. So everywhere might not get effected if there was a relationship. This is what Baranyi was trying to point out.

The science community as a whole has always been trying to put all of the earth's weather /climate patterns into one basket while researching
certain possible space weather relationships. This was wrong and I have been telling people this for years.

I am also guessing that we have research scientists trying to look at the weather/climate relationship in regards to certain kinds of space weather events without considering where we are in the solar cycle. This to would be the wrong approach in my opinion.

I believe the cold air mass in October could be linked to what occurred in both late August and September.

As far as the Maunder minimum goes.That was a much quieter time and it was an extended period of very low solar activity.

Now we are bringing in the GCR /Cloud factor when we talk about extended periods of low space weather activity. Several research studies link cloud coverage (Stratocumulus) with increased GCR levels. Low space weather activity means more GCR's will enter the earth's environment. Hence more clouds.

More activity equals less clouds. This is why some people think the earth has warmed so much recently since we have seen a sharp increase in space weather activity the past 50-60 years compared to both the 19th century and early 20th century. ( The GCR/cloud research is very controversial though and the battle is still going on within the scientific community.)

But do I think the earth would get cooler again if this happened ? Yes I do.



Jim