North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06
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- CaptinCrunch
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- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005
.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT IT
APPEARS WE MAY ACTUALLY BE WET AND COOL NEXT WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL CHANGE THIS WEEK. SPLIT FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH NORTH TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH AS A LOW APPROACHES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE
OSCILLATED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR US TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN...NATURALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION...A SECOND LOW
FOLLOWS...GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN. THE GFS LR IS EVEN
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY DAY 10. WHILE THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN...GIVEN OUR CURRENT DROUGHT AND RECENT
EXPERIENCES...WE WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS STAGE
AND WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO GAIN HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IF
THE LOW WERE TO DEVIATE JUST SLIGHTLY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK WE WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND VIRTUALLY DRY. SO FOR
NOW WE WILL LEAVE RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.
.UPDATE...
PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WETTER...BUT
GIVEN GFS HISTORY OF STARTING WET AND DRYING OUT AS TIME
PROGRESSES...WILL HAVE TO JUST BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES BUT
NOT JUMP VERY HARD ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE. MAV MOS
CAME IN THIS MORNING WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER TEMPS SHOULD BE RAISED TO NEAR 80 IN THE METROPLEX AND AREAS
SOUTH . 84
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005
.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT IT
APPEARS WE MAY ACTUALLY BE WET AND COOL NEXT WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL CHANGE THIS WEEK. SPLIT FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH NORTH TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH AS A LOW APPROACHES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE
OSCILLATED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR US TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN...NATURALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION...A SECOND LOW
FOLLOWS...GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN. THE GFS LR IS EVEN
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY DAY 10. WHILE THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN...GIVEN OUR CURRENT DROUGHT AND RECENT
EXPERIENCES...WE WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS STAGE
AND WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO GAIN HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IF
THE LOW WERE TO DEVIATE JUST SLIGHTLY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK WE WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND VIRTUALLY DRY. SO FOR
NOW WE WILL LEAVE RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.
.UPDATE...
PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WETTER...BUT
GIVEN GFS HISTORY OF STARTING WET AND DRYING OUT AS TIME
PROGRESSES...WILL HAVE TO JUST BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES BUT
NOT JUMP VERY HARD ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE. MAV MOS
CAME IN THIS MORNING WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER TEMPS SHOULD BE RAISED TO NEAR 80 IN THE METROPLEX AND AREAS
SOUTH . 84
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AS ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS..WE ARE CHANGING FROM A WEST
COAST HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH TO SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. AND TO MAKE MATTERS MORE
INTERESTING IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WE WILL HAVE QUITE PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER...ACTUALLY RATHER WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AS DRY WEST
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW IS
GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BY EARLY SATURDAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS. I HAVE
NOT GONE AS HIGH AS MEX MOS ON POPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT AND THE FACT THAT THE LOWS COULD STRAY FROM
THEIR FORECAST TRACK...I AM HESITANT TO GET THAT OPTIMISTIC. MY BIAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWER POPS.
THE FIRST LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE A CLOUDY
COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE AS
THE NEXT AND STRONGER CLOSED LOW SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ITS
TRACK DEPICTED FURTHER SOUTH I AM LESS CONFIDENT OF GOOD RAINS
OVER NORTH TEXAS.
OVERALL...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINS AT THIS
TIME BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS OVER
A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE TRACKS
AND STRENGTHS OF THE SYSTEMS WILL BE BETTER DEFINED BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL...SOMETIMES WET...WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
COAST HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH TO SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. AND TO MAKE MATTERS MORE
INTERESTING IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WE WILL HAVE QUITE PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER...ACTUALLY RATHER WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AS DRY WEST
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW IS
GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BY EARLY SATURDAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS. I HAVE
NOT GONE AS HIGH AS MEX MOS ON POPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT AND THE FACT THAT THE LOWS COULD STRAY FROM
THEIR FORECAST TRACK...I AM HESITANT TO GET THAT OPTIMISTIC. MY BIAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWER POPS.
THE FIRST LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE A CLOUDY
COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE AS
THE NEXT AND STRONGER CLOSED LOW SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ITS
TRACK DEPICTED FURTHER SOUTH I AM LESS CONFIDENT OF GOOD RAINS
OVER NORTH TEXAS.
OVERALL...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINS AT THIS
TIME BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS OVER
A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE TRACKS
AND STRENGTHS OF THE SYSTEMS WILL BE BETTER DEFINED BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL...SOMETIMES WET...WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Now that the Thanksgiving Holiday has passed it's time to focus on Christmas and New Years and the hopes of some truly colder weather instead of this up and down temp swing we have been in. Form high's in the lower 50's and our first offical freeze of the season the week before Thanksgiving to mid and upper 70's and even low 80's the week of and a nice rain this past Saturday that really didn't do much for our drout, it's starting to look like winter will never come.
However, as i stated in my Winter Outlook I believe that something is coming by way of the artic express by the 2nd week of December, and it looks as if the GFS and EURO are hinting at it as well. The GFS MRF shows a major cold front coming straight down thru the middle of the country by Dec 5th and 6th, now this is all still a ways away and I know models will change but it also brings a LPS across at the same time and snow or ice will be a good possibility, just not a big event and it wont last more than 72 hrs if it evens happens at all.
However, as i stated in my Winter Outlook I believe that something is coming by way of the artic express by the 2nd week of December, and it looks as if the GFS and EURO are hinting at it as well. The GFS MRF shows a major cold front coming straight down thru the middle of the country by Dec 5th and 6th, now this is all still a ways away and I know models will change but it also brings a LPS across at the same time and snow or ice will be a good possibility, just not a big event and it wont last more than 72 hrs if it evens happens at all.
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005
.DISCUSSION...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY BE MORE
MANAGEABLE TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WINDY DAY MONDAY. THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXES DOWN
BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
DECREASE WIND SPEEDS TO THE 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
STILL SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD COME
THROUGH DRY OVERALL...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MANAGE TO FORM IN THE
SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REPEAT THE SAME CYCLE WITH A
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH CONSOLIDATED WEST TO NORTH FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. LAST
NIGHTS GFS WAS SHOWING A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THE LOW
POPS FROM MONDAYS FORECAST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005
.DISCUSSION...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY BE MORE
MANAGEABLE TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WINDY DAY MONDAY. THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXES DOWN
BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
DECREASE WIND SPEEDS TO THE 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
STILL SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD COME
THROUGH DRY OVERALL...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MANAGE TO FORM IN THE
SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REPEAT THE SAME CYCLE WITH A
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH CONSOLIDATED WEST TO NORTH FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. LAST
NIGHTS GFS WAS SHOWING A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THE LOW
POPS FROM MONDAYS FORECAST.
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
North Texas Cold Waves
February 1899
Severe and widespread cold January 26 – February 14
Record lows through much of central and southeast United States
Heavy snow Atlantic coast (great Eastern Blizzard of '99)
Flow of ice down Mississippi River past New Orleans (first since1784)
Poultry and domestic animals suffered and froze to death
Game birds perished in large numbers, fish killed by cold water (southern states)
Cold attributed to deaths of 105 people nationwide, 15 in Texas
Travel delayed, communications interrupted, schools closed
Food and fuel famines threatened in larger cities
February 1905
Severe cold wave February 11-14
Snow afforded protection to growing crops
January 1912
Destructive cold waves January 6 and 11
Cold wave of January 11 moved very rapidly
All unprotected vegetation killed
January 1918
Destructive cold waves January 10-12 and January 21-22 with snow
January 1930
Severe cold wave January 17-18 comparable to February 1899 except for rapid movement
Sleet storms general over state 7th-10th; northeast and central 11th-13th; extensive 16th-18th; occasional east and central 21st-22nd.
At Dallas, freezing rain and sleet the 7th-11th caused ice two inches thick of trees and utility lines; caused many traffic accidents, and killed barley and wheat
At Fort Worth, ice seven inches thick at Lake Worth
Freezing rain the 19th-21st caused more property damage.
February 1933
Sharp cold wave 7th-10th
Temperature dropped from 57 degrees at midnight to 30 degrees at 1A and 10 degrees at 8A
Freezing rain on 10th; some injuries due to people slipping on ice
January 1949
Severe ice storm west Texas 9th-13th
In metroplex, up to one inch of ice made streets and sidewalks slippery and dangerous
At Dallas on the 25th, five inches of rain caused a moderate flood on the Trinity
At Fort Worth, 72 hours of below freezing temperatures coupled with freezing rain, sleet and snow made it one of the most damaging ice storms on record.
January 28-February 1, three inches of snow and record cold caused many pipes to burst.
January 1962
Severe cold wave January 9-12
At Fort Worth, storm struck suddenly with near blizzard conditions
Cars stranded on icy roads; schools and businesses forced to close
3 ½ days of below freezing temperatures caused pipes to burst
Freeze in lower Rio Grande Valley caused extensive damage to crops
December 1983
Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone
December 1989
Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas
February 1899
Severe and widespread cold January 26 – February 14
Record lows through much of central and southeast United States
Heavy snow Atlantic coast (great Eastern Blizzard of '99)
Flow of ice down Mississippi River past New Orleans (first since1784)
Poultry and domestic animals suffered and froze to death
Game birds perished in large numbers, fish killed by cold water (southern states)
Cold attributed to deaths of 105 people nationwide, 15 in Texas
Travel delayed, communications interrupted, schools closed
Food and fuel famines threatened in larger cities
February 1905
Severe cold wave February 11-14
Snow afforded protection to growing crops
January 1912
Destructive cold waves January 6 and 11
Cold wave of January 11 moved very rapidly
All unprotected vegetation killed
January 1918
Destructive cold waves January 10-12 and January 21-22 with snow
January 1930
Severe cold wave January 17-18 comparable to February 1899 except for rapid movement
Sleet storms general over state 7th-10th; northeast and central 11th-13th; extensive 16th-18th; occasional east and central 21st-22nd.
At Dallas, freezing rain and sleet the 7th-11th caused ice two inches thick of trees and utility lines; caused many traffic accidents, and killed barley and wheat
At Fort Worth, ice seven inches thick at Lake Worth
Freezing rain the 19th-21st caused more property damage.
February 1933
Sharp cold wave 7th-10th
Temperature dropped from 57 degrees at midnight to 30 degrees at 1A and 10 degrees at 8A
Freezing rain on 10th; some injuries due to people slipping on ice
January 1949
Severe ice storm west Texas 9th-13th
In metroplex, up to one inch of ice made streets and sidewalks slippery and dangerous
At Dallas on the 25th, five inches of rain caused a moderate flood on the Trinity
At Fort Worth, 72 hours of below freezing temperatures coupled with freezing rain, sleet and snow made it one of the most damaging ice storms on record.
January 28-February 1, three inches of snow and record cold caused many pipes to burst.
January 1962
Severe cold wave January 9-12
At Fort Worth, storm struck suddenly with near blizzard conditions
Cars stranded on icy roads; schools and businesses forced to close
3 ½ days of below freezing temperatures caused pipes to burst
Freeze in lower Rio Grande Valley caused extensive damage to crops
December 1983
Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone
December 1989
Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas
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- CaptinCrunch
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- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

North Texas Snowfall Events 1879-1997
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/wintersnow6.htm
Significant North Texas Snow Events - Since 1895
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/annual/dsnows.html
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET. RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...AND POPS WERE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THIS WEEKEND. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES LOOK SLIM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
CHILLIER WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND TEMP GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY PER THE
ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 54.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 56.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 57.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET. RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...AND POPS WERE REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THIS WEEKEND. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES LOOK SLIM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
CHILLIER WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND TEMP GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY PER THE
ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 54.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 56.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 57.
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
SIGNIFICANT CA AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN RESPONSE...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN UPPER
MIDWEST...HELPING PUSH AIR MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
DENSITY OF AIR SHOULD ALLOW CA AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS
BY MIDWEEK. MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL NEED TO LOWER MIDWEEK TEMPS CONSIDERABLY IF EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND.
WEEK. IN RESPONSE...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN UPPER
MIDWEST...HELPING PUSH AIR MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
DENSITY OF AIR SHOULD ALLOW CA AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS
BY MIDWEEK. MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL NEED TO LOWER MIDWEEK TEMPS CONSIDERABLY IF EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND.
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- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST THU DEC 1 2005
.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT MINS
TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER DUSK. RETURN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INDUCES LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN
FORECASTING THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN GRADUALLY DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT BENEATH THE JET
AXIS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING THE RED
RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY
IN NAM/GFS PROGS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE
WITH VEERING BOUNDARY FLOW. ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AN AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION THROUGH MID-DAY ON SUNDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO OCCUR OVER NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE FROM THE AMERICAN MODEL SUITE...AS
WELL AS FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RESULTING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A VERY COLD AIRMASS...AND
INDEED A 1040+ MB HIGH IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD AIR SHOULD ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES...WITH
THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR LIKELY
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ABANDON GFS MOS NUMBERS
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH PROGS FROM THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF AIRMASS AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT PREFER TO WAIT
FOR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CONSISTENCY AMONG SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST THU DEC 1 2005
.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT MINS
TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER DUSK. RETURN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INDUCES LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN
FORECASTING THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN GRADUALLY DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT BENEATH THE JET
AXIS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING THE RED
RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY
IN NAM/GFS PROGS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE
WITH VEERING BOUNDARY FLOW. ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AN AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION THROUGH MID-DAY ON SUNDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO OCCUR OVER NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE FROM THE AMERICAN MODEL SUITE...AS
WELL AS FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RESULTING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A VERY COLD AIRMASS...AND
INDEED A 1040+ MB HIGH IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD AIR SHOULD ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES...WITH
THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR LIKELY
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ABANDON GFS MOS NUMBERS
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH PROGS FROM THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF AIRMASS AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT PREFER TO WAIT
FOR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CONSISTENCY AMONG SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME.
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EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CA AIR ARRIVING MIDWEEK.
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON ON TAP...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
AND 40S WED AND THURS. OUTLIER GFS IS GENERATING PRECIP AGAIN
BEYOND DAY 5...WHAT ELSE IS NEW? HAS HEALTHY POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE
AT 850MB...POTENTIAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETUP. WILL KEEP EXTENDED
10 POPS...BUT WILL WAIT ON PRECIP MENTION MIDWEEK UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON ON TAP...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
AND 40S WED AND THURS. OUTLIER GFS IS GENERATING PRECIP AGAIN
BEYOND DAY 5...WHAT ELSE IS NEW? HAS HEALTHY POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE
AT 850MB...POTENTIAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETUP. WILL KEEP EXTENDED
10 POPS...BUT WILL WAIT ON PRECIP MENTION MIDWEEK UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.
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- CaptinCrunch
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2005
.SHORT TERM...
WAA NOW IN FULL SWING ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW PTS...AS S/SE
WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTY MOST PLACES. LOW
LVL THETA-E AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER E TX THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z SUN. WILL HAVE
SOME SCT SPRINKLES OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES...BUT NO REAL FORCING
EITHER SFC OR ALOFT FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH WARM W/SWLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WE`LL LIKELY CALL THE FOREST SERVICE FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WX WATCH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE CRITERIA...AS AFTN
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NW HALF WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
AND WITH ONGOING DROUGHT...IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE RED RIVER SATURDAY EVE...BEFORE
PUSHING THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AS CURRENT WRN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST E/SE OF A CANTON...MARLIN...CAMERON
LINE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT NIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL
AND NO REAL LARGE SCALE FORCING TO BE FOUND EITHER...SO NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT REGARDING RAINFALL. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DEFINITELY COOLER SUN INTO MONDAY...YET DRY. AGAIN...WINDS
AND RH WILL NEED TO BE WATCH REGARDING DROUGHT/FIRE WX CONCERNS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY TO LEND IN A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR POSSIBLY LOWER 60S. BY WED AND THROUGH LATE
WEEK...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE SWD OUT OF CANADA WHERE
VERY COLD AIR IS POOLING UP AND HELP SHOOT WHAT COULD BE AN ARCTIC
FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO MEXICO AND GULF BY 00Z THURS. PER COORD
WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH
OVERALL SFC-500 MB PATTERN AND EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WILL NOT BUY OFF ON ANY QPF LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING QUITE
YET...AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF.
TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
WED-THURS...AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE DENSE WITH LOW DIURNAL RANGES.
FRIDAY WILL ONLY SEE A SLOW MODIFICATION INTO THE MID-UPPER
40S...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASS DENSITY AND DESPITE DEPARTURE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2005
.SHORT TERM...
WAA NOW IN FULL SWING ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW PTS...AS S/SE
WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTY MOST PLACES. LOW
LVL THETA-E AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER E TX THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z SUN. WILL HAVE
SOME SCT SPRINKLES OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES...BUT NO REAL FORCING
EITHER SFC OR ALOFT FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH WARM W/SWLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WE`LL LIKELY CALL THE FOREST SERVICE FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WX WATCH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE CRITERIA...AS AFTN
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NW HALF WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
AND WITH ONGOING DROUGHT...IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE RED RIVER SATURDAY EVE...BEFORE
PUSHING THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AS CURRENT WRN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST E/SE OF A CANTON...MARLIN...CAMERON
LINE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT NIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL
AND NO REAL LARGE SCALE FORCING TO BE FOUND EITHER...SO NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT REGARDING RAINFALL. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DEFINITELY COOLER SUN INTO MONDAY...YET DRY. AGAIN...WINDS
AND RH WILL NEED TO BE WATCH REGARDING DROUGHT/FIRE WX CONCERNS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY TO LEND IN A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR POSSIBLY LOWER 60S. BY WED AND THROUGH LATE
WEEK...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE SWD OUT OF CANADA WHERE
VERY COLD AIR IS POOLING UP AND HELP SHOOT WHAT COULD BE AN ARCTIC
FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO MEXICO AND GULF BY 00Z THURS. PER COORD
WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH
OVERALL SFC-500 MB PATTERN AND EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WILL NOT BUY OFF ON ANY QPF LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING QUITE
YET...AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF.
TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
WED-THURS...AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE DENSE WITH LOW DIURNAL RANGES.
FRIDAY WILL ONLY SEE A SLOW MODIFICATION INTO THE MID-UPPER
40S...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASS DENSITY AND DESPITE DEPARTURE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
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- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CST MON DEC 5 2005
.DISCUSSION...
I APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE FORECAST! WE HAD A BRIEF POWER BREAK (A
COMPUTER CORD CAME LOSE). THUS...WE LOST THE GRIDDED DATA...AND
HAD TO RECONSTRUCT IT.
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA...AND WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN...ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AT MID-WEEK...BRINGING THE COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE EARLY WINTER.
THE GREAT CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 290 AND 295 DEGREE THETA LEVELS (NEAR 850 TO
925 MB LEVELS) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RISING AIR IN THE 295 DEGREE LEVEL INITIALLY WILL BE DRY. IT
PROBABLY WON`T MOISTEN UP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LIFT HIGHER UP...BUT MAINLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST NORTH TEXAS ZONES.
THE 06Z ETA CAME IN WETTER THAN THE 00Z VERSION...BUT SOMETIMES
THE "IN-BETWEEN RAOB MODELS (INCLUDING 06Z) HAVE SOME PROBLEMS.
THUS...IF THE 12Z ETA FOLLOWS THE 06Z RUN...I WILL FEEL A BIT
STRONGER ABOUT RAINFALL...AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE SNOW
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. EVEN
THERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED
ALOFT IS DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS.
THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MIXED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTER A GRADUAL WARMUP AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Calm wind.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 29. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 15 and 20 mph.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, mixing with snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 35. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 29.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 47.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CST MON DEC 5 2005
.DISCUSSION...
I APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE FORECAST! WE HAD A BRIEF POWER BREAK (A
COMPUTER CORD CAME LOSE). THUS...WE LOST THE GRIDDED DATA...AND
HAD TO RECONSTRUCT IT.
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA...AND WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN...ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AT MID-WEEK...BRINGING THE COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE EARLY WINTER.
THE GREAT CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 290 AND 295 DEGREE THETA LEVELS (NEAR 850 TO
925 MB LEVELS) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RISING AIR IN THE 295 DEGREE LEVEL INITIALLY WILL BE DRY. IT
PROBABLY WON`T MOISTEN UP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LIFT HIGHER UP...BUT MAINLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WELCOME RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST NORTH TEXAS ZONES.
THE 06Z ETA CAME IN WETTER THAN THE 00Z VERSION...BUT SOMETIMES
THE "IN-BETWEEN RAOB MODELS (INCLUDING 06Z) HAVE SOME PROBLEMS.
THUS...IF THE 12Z ETA FOLLOWS THE 06Z RUN...I WILL FEEL A BIT
STRONGER ABOUT RAINFALL...AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE SNOW
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. EVEN
THERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED
ALOFT IS DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS.
THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MIXED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTER A GRADUAL WARMUP AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Calm wind.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 29. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 15 and 20 mph.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, mixing with snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 35. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 29.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 47.
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AFD NWS FT WORTH TX 1100AM
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE MODEL TREND ON
WEDNESDAY TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL BE EXAMINING ALL THE DATA AND WILL
MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE MODEL TREND ON
WEDNESDAY TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL BE EXAMINING ALL THE DATA AND WILL
MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
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WINTER STORM WATCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
...A COMBINATION OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TUESDAY...BRINGING A FRIGID AIRMASS AND THE CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS TUESDAY EVENING...THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
GRAHAM...JACKSBORO...GAINESVILLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...THEN
SPREAD AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE
BY NOON WEDNESDAY. SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT IS CLEAR THAT A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY AND BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS...EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
ON TRAVEL.
AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...THIS WATCH WILL BE UPDATED
AND POSSIBLY REDEFINED. IN THE MEANTIME...RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS
NEED TO STAY INFORMED AND TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS REGARDING
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-060515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.051207T0600Z-051208T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...LAMPASAS...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...WACO
306 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
A MIXTURE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINTER
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY
SNOW...WILL START TO FALL IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WEDNESDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
...A COMBINATION OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TUESDAY...BRINGING A FRIGID AIRMASS AND THE CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS TUESDAY EVENING...THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
GRAHAM...JACKSBORO...GAINESVILLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...THEN
SPREAD AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE
BY NOON WEDNESDAY. SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT IS CLEAR THAT A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY AND BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS...EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
ON TRAVEL.
AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...THIS WATCH WILL BE UPDATED
AND POSSIBLY REDEFINED. IN THE MEANTIME...RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS
NEED TO STAY INFORMED AND TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS REGARDING
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-060515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.051207T0600Z-051208T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...LAMPASAS...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...WACO
306 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
A MIXTURE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINTER
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY
SNOW...WILL START TO FALL IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WEDNESDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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- TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR 9 KT TOMORROW. INCREASING CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TR/92
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED AND BUSY AFTERNOON AS WE ARE INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT
FIRST...TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HAVE
NOT DIFFERED MUCH FROM MOS NUMBERS. CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING
ON TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF N TEXAS. THINGS GET
REALLY INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT STEAMS THROUGH THE REGION.
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF QPF
OVER N TEXAS IN EACH RUN...AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES WARM
AND MOIST AIR OVER THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A LOT CAN...AND
LIKELY WILL CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NW COUNTIES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MIX SPREADING
SE ACROSS N TEXAS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF N TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SE AND
STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NW HALF. THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOOKS TO LINGER E OF I-35 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING
ACROSS OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE ON THU. AGAIN..CONFIDENCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT HAS INCREASED...BUT A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND MID WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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- TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 6-12KT TODAY AND EARLY EVENING....THEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND BEGINS TO VEER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE KDFW TRACON
AROUND 09-11Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE KACT TRACON SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/WED. DOUBT IF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE TRACONS BEFORE
12Z.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE TO BE ISSUED AT 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KDFW AND KACT TRACONS. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
45A AM.
WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE AREA AND TIMING OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YOUNG WINTER
SEASON.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...BRINGING WARM...MOIST AIR ALOFT INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT TO TRIGGER SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND TURN TO VARIOUS MIXTURES OF
RAIN...SNOW...SOME FREEZING RAIN...AND MAYBE EVEN SLEET. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WE HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE WACO AND
TEMPLE AREAS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING AND FROZEN
IN THE NORTH...AND RAIN TURNING TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SLEET AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FREEZING RAIN...OF COURSE...WILL CAUSE
THE GREATEST CONCERN...WHEN AND WHERE IT OCCURS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS OF UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOULD HELP TO SORT OUT
PRECIP TYPES A BIT MORE.
WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN MANY AREAS...BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DOWN THE DAYS 4-7 ROAD...AS TO
POSSIBLE RAIN EVENTS IN THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. THUS...WE HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL NOT DO SO UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE DAY EXTENDED PERIOD.
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- TexasStooge
- Category 5
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062300-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
425 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...ATHENS LINE.
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANY LIQUID
WATER REMAINING ON ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FORM PATCHES OF
ICE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.
A VERY HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
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