Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm BAAZ (05B)

[P.K.]

There is more model data here and here.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/13 Dated 29th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 12.0o N and Long. 84.0o E about 450 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the morning of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to commence along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast from tomorrow morning. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts from tomorrow evening.

State of sea will be very rough to high off north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Amaterasu]

By the way, Baaz (pronunciation of Ba-az) is a male Arabic name for "falcon"

Interesting tidbit. Thanks also for the link Doc.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My ethnic background is of India. Cyclone Baaz is getting pretty
cranked up....

UNFORTUNATELY, many of these areas along this coast of
India experienced damage with the TSUNAMI last December.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/14 Dated 29th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2330 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 12.0o N and Long. 84.0o E about 450 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the morning of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts from the night of Wednesday, the 30th November 2005.

State of sea will be very rough to high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why almost every storm that forms there is a tropical storm. Yes a few have become hurricanes. But they seems to have the lowest number of storms a year on earth.

[P.K.]

Track

No. BOB/11/2005/17 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal continue to remain practically stationary and lay centered at 0830 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.0o N and Long. 84.0o E about 450 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the afternoon of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamilnadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamilnadu - Andhra Pradesh coast from tonight.

State of sea will be very rough to high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

[shunshu]

Why almost every storm that forms there is a tropical storm. Yes a few have become hurricanes. But they seems to have the lowest number of storms a year on earth.

hurricane terminology is not used to describe the storms here. only cylcones and super cyclones. my understanding is that the bay of bengal is too smal for storms to grow huge. the last big cyclone was the orrisa one, ironically named 05b.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I guess the Bay Of Bengal has an off-season as well when the sun moves to the antipodes.


There haven't been any Bay Of Bengal super cyclones lately like the ones that killed 100,000's in the early 1970's.

According to Wikipedia, at least...these are some of the worst cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean since 1970:

1970 - The Bhola Cyclone struck Bangladesh as a 120mph Cat3 with a 15-20 foot surge, killing an estimated 300,000-500,000+ people

1971 - Orissa Cyclone
115 mph
Orissa, India
10,000 fatalities.

1977 - Andhra Pradesh Cyclone
130 mph
Andhra Pradesh, India
Storm surge of 5 meters high killed 10,000 people, left hundreds of thousands homeless, and destroyed 40% of India's food grains.

1982 - Cyclone One (1B)
A small and compact 145mph cyclone that struck Myanmar at peak intensity (reminds me of Charley)
"Moderate to heavy damage was experienced, but advanced warning kept the death toll at only five in an area where hundreds to thousands of deaths are relatively common."

1982 - Tropical Storm Two (2B)
65 mph
Paradip, India
140 casualties and destroying over 500,000 homes.

1982 - Cyclone Five (5A)
95 mph
Veraval, India
341 casualties and heavy flooding.

1984 - Cyclone Three (3B)
95 mph
Stalled just offshore India's east coast
430 fatalities

1985 - Tropical Storm One (1B)
70 mph
Bangladesh
6,000 deaths - (The Wikipedia author also notes that advance warning likely saved thousands more lives...from a tropical storm )

1988 - Tropical Storm Two (2B)
Struck Bangladesh as a tropical depression, but surge and flooding still killed over 1500 people.

1988 - Cyclone Four (4A)
130mph
Sundarbans, Bangladesh -- also caused heavy flooding and mudslides in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand
Heavy storm surge and torrential flooding killed 2000 people (with 6000 missing), and left millions homeless. In addition, the storm caused 1000 fatalities and over 100,000 homeless in Malaysia, Thailand, and western Indonesia.

1989 - Typhoon Gay
160mph
1st landfall in Thailand as a 100kt system (115mph) killed over 900 -- second landfall as a Cat5 in India killed 69 and destroyed over 20,000 homes, largely thanks to a sparsely populated landfall area.

1990 - Cyclone Two (2B)
145 mph -- weakened to a 115 mph at landfall in Andhra Pradesh, India.
"510 human fatalities, but the effect on agriculture was substantial. More than 100,000 animals were killed, and crop damage was estimated at $600 million (1990 USD). This was the worst Indian cyclone since 1977."

1991 - Cyclone Two (2B)
160 mph, 898 millibars, 20 foot storm surge
Chittagong, Bangladesh
138,000 people killed

1994 - Cyclone Two (2B)
145 mph -- weakened to 130 mph at landfall near the Bangladesh/Myanmar border.
285 casualties thanks to evacuations and a low tide.

1995 - Cyclone Three (3B)
75mph
India's East Coast
"The tropical moisture from the system led to a heavy snowfall over the mountains. 62 people were killed from either landslides or avalanches." -- (As a rule I'm only listing cyclones that killed at least 100 people, but how often do you see a snowicane?)

1996 - Tropical Storm Three (3B)
Andra Pradesh
175 deaths

1996 - Cyclone Seven (7B)
140 mph
eastern India
over 1,000 casualties

1997 - Cyclone One (1B)
135 mph
Bangladesh
"several hundred casualties"

1998 - Cyclone Three (3A)
120 mph
Gujarat, India
1126 fatalities due to flooding and storm surge, as well as $290 million in damage (1998 US Dollars)

1999 - Cyclone Two (2A)
130 mph
Northwestern India
700 deaths

1999 - Tropical Cyclone 05B
160mph peak, 155mph landfall
Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India
9,803 people died, with others still missing, leading to a possibly higher death toll. 17,110 km² (6,600 mi²) of crops were destroyed. The number of livestock that perished in the cyclone amounted to 406,000.

2004 - Tropical Storm Two (2B)
70 mph
Myanmar
140 casualties





I not only hope that Baaz doesn't join this list of tragedies, but that there are no fatalities to report at all.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/21 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 84.0o E about 400 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the night of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamilnadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast from tomorrow morning.

State of sea will be high to very high off extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

[P.K.]

WTIN20 DEMS 010600
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RSMC NEW DELHI F/C
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03
ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL

INITIAL POSITION
010000Z NEAR 12.5N 84.0 E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS

FORECAST
06 HRS VALID AT: 010600 12.5N 83.6E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

12 HRS VALID AT: 011200 12.5N 82.8E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

18 HRS VALID AT: 011800 12.5N 82.1E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

24 HRS VALID AT: 020000 12.9N 81.3E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

30 HRS VALID AT: 020600 13.0N 80.1E
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS

NEXT WARNING AT 011800

[HurricaneBill]

The North Indian Ocean is an interesting basin.

Some seasons can have as little as 0 storms, while other seasons can have up to 10.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

It's classified as a Deep Depression again, which is good news for the Andhra Pradesh coast of India. However, the convection still looks very solid, and I'd imagine there will be significant rainfall and likely flooding when Baaz finally moves ashore. People in the area need to stay vigilant.

[HurricaneBill]

According to Wikipedia, at least...these are some of the worst cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean since 1970:

1970 - The Bhola Cyclone struck Bangladesh as a 120mph Cat3 with a 15-20 foot surge, killing an estimated 300,000-500,000+ people

I've heard this storm refered to as "Cyclone Gorky" on some webpages. Anyone know why?

1982 - Cyclone One (1B)
A small and compact 145mph cyclone that struck Myanmar at peak intensity (reminds me of Charley)
"Moderate to heavy damage was experienced, but advanced warning kept the death toll at only five in an area where hundreds to thousands of deaths are relatively common."

Considering Myanmar is notorious for downplaying and withholding information, I'd question this.

1989 - Super Typhoon Gay
160mph
1st landfall in Thailand as a 100kt system (115mph) killed over 900 -- second landfall as a Cat5 in India killed 69 and destroyed over 20,000 homes, largely thanks to a sparsely populated landfall area.

Gay was a midget cyclone as well, which also probably contributed to the low death toll as well.

I not only hope that Baaz doesn't join this list of tragedies, but that there are no fatalities to report at all.

I think India and Bangladesh have worked on improving warning systems and providing shelters in the most vulnerable areas.

[P.K.]

Track

No. BOB/11/2005/30 Dated 02nd December, 2005

Subject: Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 01ST December, 2005 near Lat. 13.0o N and Long. 83.0o E about 300 km east of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by night of 2nd December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along these coasts when the system comes nearer.

State of sea will be rough to very rough off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.