What are your early 2006 predictions?

[brunota2003]

ok, thanks, yea... we have a very active season ahead of us for next year, and from what ive been reading, it will most likely be my turn for bad hurricanes...

[bvigal]

12 named storms, 5 hurricanes (all fish), 1 of those major

YES! It IS -removed-. Wish, wish, wish, and pray, pray, pray, pray!!
'nuf already!!!

[Jim Cantore]

17 Named storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
1 cat 5

[SamSagnella]

18/8/4

[wxman57]

15-8-4

I like those numbers. What made this season so unusual was that a "hot spot" develped in the Caribbean Sea that was similar to the monsoonal gyre in the western Pacific. In effect, we had a western Pacific-type season in the Atlantic. In 2004, that "hot spot" set up in the mid Atlantic, thus the many long-tracked major hurricanes.

For 2006, it's unlikely that the trof will remain in the central Caribbean. The eastern Pacific continues to cool, and I suspect that the negative NAO will slowly be reversing in the coming years as the Bermuda high gets stronger and builds farther southwest and west. That'll mean less storms, but still about twice as many majors as during cool-Atlantic cycles (4 vs. 2).

Since the Atlantic heated up in 1995, we've seen an average of 13 named storms per season. We know that the average during the last warm cycle (1926-1944) was just under 10 named storms. However, in recent years we have seen at least 2-3 "political storms" per season, storms that would never have been named in the 40s, 50s, or 60s. So I suspect the average number of storms over the next 10-20 years may be closer to 12 to account for the NHC naming more questionable storms and subtropical storms.

So, since I suspect that the unusual Caribbean pattern will be gone next year, but we'll be in a weak La Nina with above normal SSTs and a slightly stronger Bermuda high, I'm going with:

15 / 8 / 4

[Windsong]

20 / 13 / 6

[senorpepr]

17 / 9 / 5

[boca]

16/8/4 for 2006 and I'm being conservative thinking not another repeat of 2005.

[MiamiensisWx]

16/11/4

16 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes for 2006

[JamesFromMaine2]

by me saying this it doesn't mean I believe this will happen so please no one attack me for saying this!

However for the past few months we have been getting atleast 3 named storms each month if that trend were to continue then by may we would already have 15 named storms and thats even before the offical 2006 season starts! All season long we have had atleast 1 named storm each month if that continues then we would have atleast 5 named storms by may! Or after this month we may not see another storm until june or july but theres just something to think about!

[SouthFloridawx]

Here are my predictions for 2006 barring SST's and El Nino...

23
12
8
2 - cat 5's

[terstorm1012]

15/8/4 - close in year, similar to last.

[Zackiedawg]

General prediction for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:

19 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

Now for more specific predictions:

3 will make U.S. landfall as tropical storms...1 early bird in the gulf east of Pensacola, 1 Florida scare that will scurry up the east coast and skirt the Carolinas, and 1 that will head through the Keys before second landfall in southeastern Texas as a depression.

1 hurricane will make U.S. landfall as a Cat 2, near the South/North Carolina border.

Many of the rest will end up turning into the central Atlantic.

I think we'll have more African derived storms and less southern and western Caribbean derived storms next year.


Here's a fun but very unscientific look at 6-year naming cycles (the 2006 names having been here in 2000, 1994, 1988, etc):
The worst storms on next-year's historic 6-year name group was Gilbert in 1988 and the 1928 Okeechobee storm. 7 names have been retired out of this name group resulting in 843 deaths (the least retirements of the 6 name groups, and second least deaths) - though the unnamed Okeechobee storm surely would have been retired! The 2010-2004-1998-1992-etc has the worst reputation so far...with over 21,000 deaths - which includes large death totals from Jeanne, Georges, Mitch, and Fifi...and other retirees including Charley, Frances, Ivan, Andrew, Carmen, and Allen. Interestingly, Katrina and Camille fall in the same 6-year naming cycle (2005 and 1969)...so they've got more in common than first thought!

[JtSmarts]

My Numbers

16- Named Storms
10- Hurricanes
6- Major Hurricanes
1 or 2 Cat 5's

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***THE FOLLOWING IS NOT AN OFFICIAL POST
AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH. IT IS NOT ENDORSED BY STORM2K OR ANY OTHER INSTITUTION. PLEASE REFER TO NHC
OR NOAA FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION******


CONFIDENCE LEVEL HAS DECREASED IN MY PREVIOUS
PREDICTIONS

Revised Prediction:
Since I LACK DETAILED KNOWLEDGE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
STUDIES....I give 3 predictions....


Little/No Impact by Global Warming on Hurricanes: 2005
is just the PEAK OF THIS ACTIVE CYCLE...
15/7/3
Confidence: LOW 10%

If Global Warming IS having significant impact on JUST INTENSITY,
EXACERBATING THE ACTIVE CYCLE:
15/10/8
Confidence: MEDIUM 60%

If Global Warming IS having a significant impact on BOTH
STORM FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY,
EXACERBATING THE ACTIVE CYCLE:
25/15/10
Confidence: LOW 30%

[wxwatcher91]

Named Storms: between 15 and 35
Hurricanes: between 10 and 25
Major Hurricanes: between 5 and 15

keeping it wide enough I think that I will not have to feast on crow

[mike815]

yeah im not making a prediction. It would be just like yours.

[johngaltfla]

24/16/5

Believe it or not, I'm going to gamble that our Red Tide problem could be an indicator. Funny that during this season of overheated Gulf of Mexico temps, it just so happens that the most persistent bloom of Red Tide has maintained itself from last April through now even. All of this is not a coincidence as the Mote Marine scientists believe that the higher gulf temps helped to spread the bloom.

We now have thousands of square miles of essentially a dead ocean off our coast. I wonder if this is the indicator that GOM temps will remain 4-6 degrees above normal and thus exacerbate our hurricane problems next year also.

Of the 5 majors, 2 will hit the U.S., IMHO.

And I think the first named storm will form in May next year.

[Canelaw99]

My early predictions: Florida will become a deserted peninsula because everyone has left...either that or all people in the southeast will be bald from pulling their hair out LOL

As for numbers, not even gonna attempt 'em yet....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it will be a wild one...We should also have a cape verde season next year. More like 2004 in storm track. Most likely not like 2004 but more east coast threats like 1999. I also think the Caribbean instead of the Gulf will produce the cat5 monsters next year.

20 named storms
10 hurricanes
5 Major hurricanes.