Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[cycloneye]

Floater #1 over Epsilon.It looks well organized with the convection wrapping around.It may well be the 14th hurricane of the season very soon if convection persists around the center.

[x-y-no]

Yeah, that's quite a good looking storm, and conditions aren't bad for the next day or two ... I think it's quite capable of getting to hurricane strength within 24 to 36 hours.

[P.K.]

Just how far through the alphabet are we going to get?? TS ε is just crazy.....

[HURAKAN]

With just the Greek names used, the 2005 season has already been more active then 1984 and many others that has less than 5 storm.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah, that's quite a good looking storm, and conditions aren't bad for the next day or two ... I think it's quite capable of getting to hurricane strength within 24 to 36 hours.

I'm not sure about that. It's likely that it will be kept as a 70 mph tropical storm because of the NHC conspiracy to limit the total number of hurricanes.

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIDAS image:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/epsilon4.gif">

[wxman57]

Did you save a good image of Delta? Check your Private Messages, HURAKAN.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This season is unbelievable...I'm not surprised by the intensities of
many storms (due to the super-high oceanic heat contents this year)
...but I am surprised that we are seeing an inordinately excessive
and absolutely wild number of storms...this is parallel to the 1997 WPAC
season...2005 Atlantic Season is the 1997 WPAC of the Atlantic....

[hurricanefreak1988]

I remember a poll a while back that asked how far into the Greek names we would get. Barely anyone believed we'd get to Delta, or even Gamma for that matter. Oops?

[quandary]

And I believe 3 is the November record for most storms? Another record for 2005.

[sponger]

Maybe we can start by reviewing the records that have not been broken as opposed to those that have. Anyone have the short list of records still intact. At this rate the record for Dec Storms (2) I believe may fall as well. One hell of a year!

[JamesFromMaine2]

if we get 3 more storms in Dec. then we would be 8 letters into the greek alphabet which is 4 away from being half way through!

[cycloneye]

.SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.6N 50.4W OR ABOUT 735 NM/1360 KM EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT
1210 NM/2245 KM WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING
WEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB.
EPSILON IS MOVING WEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. EPSILON WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE 26TH OF
THIS SEASON...AT 29/1500 UTC. ENOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN ORDER TO BE ABLE CLASSIFY THIS
LOW CENTER AS A TROPICAL STORM NOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY...
OBSERVATIONS...AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THIS FACT. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE MUCH FARTHER AWAY FROM EPSILON TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. WHAT IS NOW
T.S. EPSILON HAD BEEN A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEFORE
ITS CURRENT TRANSFORMATION. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTER. THE TROUGH NOW IS ALONG 22N48W
15N54W 12N62W IN THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N44W
14N47W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

1 PM EST Discussion.

[JamesFromMaine2]

29/1745 UTC 31.3N 51.0W T2.5/2.5 96

now saying Tropical!

[cjrciadt]

1800 UTC models?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051129 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051129 1800 051130 0600 051130 1800 051201 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 50.8W 31.8N 52.1W 32.4N 53.6W 32.6N 54.6W
BAMM 31.4N 50.8W 31.5N 52.2W 31.8N 53.6W 32.1N 54.8W
A98E 31.4N 50.8W 31.2N 52.2W 31.1N 53.8W 32.0N 54.5W
LBAR 31.4N 50.8W 31.8N 51.6W 32.6N 52.3W 33.4N 52.9W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051201 1800 051202 1800 051203 1800 051204 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.4N 54.4W 33.7N 47.6W 36.2N 44.4W 39.7N 41.7W
BAMM 31.8N 55.0W 31.2N 49.1W 33.2N 42.3W 35.8N 38.8W
A98E 34.4N 54.1W 39.2N 51.6W 42.4N 45.6W 46.3N 38.2W
LBAR 34.9N 53.3W 37.9N 52.2W 42.4N 47.6W 47.7N 38.2W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 59KTS 56KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 59KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.4N LONCUR = 50.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 31.3N LONM12 = 49.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 175NM


18:00z Models.No big changes in intensity only a 5 kt increase from the 10 AM EST advisorie.

[f5]

Yeah, that's quite a good looking storm, and conditions aren't bad for the next day or two ... I think it's quite capable of getting to hurricane strength within 24 to 36 hours.

I'm not sure about that. It's likely that it will be kept as a 70 mph tropical storm because of the NHC conspiracy to limit the total number of hurricanes.

unless recon says otherwise but recon doesn't fly missions unless its close to land

[aerojad]

Man, what a season.

Here's what I think is one of the more unique satellite shots of the year -- a November satellite picture of an extra-tropical storm impacting the African coastline, along with a glimpse at newly-formed Epsilon. linky

And a zoomed-in track of the umteenth storm of the never ending 2005 hurricane season -- linky

[f5]

it looks like he a loose gradient storm 45mph tropical storm force winds extend out over 200 miles

[jusforsean]

what is keeping these storms from keeping west into the eastern us? is it even possible now in the season with the current weather pattern?