Invest 96L C Atlantic,Comments.Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280956
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DELTA... LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PALMA IN
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH



5:30 AM TWO

[Thunder44]

Looks like this season is going to have extra innings.

[superfly]

The circulation is at 30N 47W for anyone who wants to track it. Convection is limited to the northern side at the moment.

[cycloneye]

THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 31N47W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE
FROM 30.5N49.5W TO BEYOND 33N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED
NE OF THE LOW FROM 32N45W TO 30N34W PERHAPS EVEN FORMING
EASTWARD NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION OF DELTA.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.

The above from 7 AM EST Duscussion.

[HURAKAN]

Still extratropical, but looking pretty good!

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN when you have the chance post those graphics that you always bring that are great.

[jusforsean]

ok, i am getting confused we have delta going to africa, did delta give birth and spawn off another low like the models said? Ans what is with the area of convection just below florida? Can i see a model run on that one? THanks

[HURAKAN]

ok, i am getting confused we have delta going to africa, did delta give birth and spawn off another low like the models said? Ans what is with the area of convection just below florida? Can i see a model run on that one? THanks

This is another cut-off low pressure system like Delta was at the beginning, but it has nothing to do with Delta.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks this is to be.... What's the next name????

[PhillyWX]

Epsilon.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, looking good! Another couple of days...

[cycloneye]

The question is right now if this area will have an invest up soon or no invest will come.I think that if it organizes more yes we can see 96L soon.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 281602
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
EXTRATROPICAL STORM DELTA... LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FUNCHAL IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE METAREA-II MARINE
FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW... AND IN MARINE
BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE... BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


11:30 AM TWO.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, looks delta has moved on.

[cjrciadt]

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS is not too enthusiastic with this low pressure.Let's see at subsequent runs and if other global models show something.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

There you go HURAKAN with another of those great graphics.Thanks again for posting those.

[cycloneye]

Here is the invest!!.

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL962005) ON 20051128 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051128 1800 051129 0600 051129 1800 051130 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 47.5W 31.3N 49.0W 31.6N 50.2W 32.1N 51.0W
BAMM 30.6N 47.5W 31.0N 48.9W 31.3N 50.2W 31.5N 51.1W
A98E 30.6N 47.5W 31.0N 47.9W 31.9N 49.1W 33.1N 51.3W
LBAR 30.6N 47.5W 31.4N 47.8W 32.4N 48.2W 33.0N 48.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051130 1800 051201 1800 051202 1800 051203 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 52.1W 34.0N 53.4W 36.3N 49.9W 40.1N 45.4W
BAMM 32.1N 52.1W 33.3N 53.6W 35.1N 50.3W 36.2N 43.7W
A98E 33.9N 54.4W 36.6N 55.7W 38.7N 51.1W 39.1N 45.4W
LBAR 34.0N 48.7W 35.8N 49.1W 38.9N 48.5W 43.4N 43.6W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 70KTS 66KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 70KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.6N LONCUR = 47.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 47.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 46.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 150NM



First Model plots

[HURAKAN]

EPSILON is here if subtropical or tropical transition occurs.