The endless Central Atlantic

[WindRunner]

The models continue to hint at another low forming in the area Delta is right now, or slightly further west, in 3-4 days. All of these models have bought Delta's African trip, so this new low would be a seperate system.

CMC (72hrs): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005112512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFS (60hrs+): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005112512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

NOGAPS (60hrs+): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005112512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

UKMET (66hrs+): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005112512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


All of these take the low westward after formation, and to about 55W before slowing it down some at the end of the period. The GFDL does not take it quite as far east, but it does deepen the system more, most likely well into the 990s.

GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/delta28l/fcst/archive/05112512/5.html

UKMET: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/05112512/75.html

NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/05112512/75.html

As for core temp, GFDL develops it late on 11/27 as a symmetric warm-core system, but not too deep, leaving one to believe that this future system would be similar in nature to Delta. UKMET similar core anaylsis and central pressure idea. The NOGAPS anaylsis, however, does not strengthen the storm as much, but instead deepens the warm core for a little different track. Could this be Epsilon? For those wanting everything to stay in season, 11/27-11/28 will make the cut, and even 11/30 (if the NHC takes its time upgrading again) will work.

Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

One word to describe it is Interesting.Let's see how all pans out in reallity as the 2005 season seems likely to be endless.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Not endless - on January 1st, 2006, it ends. Next storm would be Alberto.

[WindRunner]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES
TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS.

The above from the NHC 4pm discussion on Delta about the formation of this low.

[HURAKAN]

EPSILON MAY BE AROUND THE COURNER, BUT IT SOUNDS WEIRD, E-P-S-I-L-O-N.

[cjrciadt]

Looked at the models this morning and still carry out this splittling of lows.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS shows the (extratropical)? low pressure in the central atlantic but after 168 hours it starts to lift NE.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A December Storm Possible!

[jusforsean]

Yeah What I want to know is if it soes split and we have Delta Jr. where exactly will it be heading??? Any ideas???

[WindRunner]

Yeah What I want to know is if it soes split and we have Delta Jr. where exactly will it be heading??? Any ideas???

All the models take the low west, some a little north or south, and stop/turn around around 55W. Not a threat to any land masses in the medium range.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think its early decemeber this forms into a tropical storm. It heads southwestward becomes a cat3 hurricane by the 10th of December. moves into the Caribbean then moves up into Miami as a cat3 for chrismas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just think its early decemeber this forms into a tropical storm. It heads southwestward becomes a cat3 hurricane by the 10th of December. moves into the Caribbean then moves up into Miami as a cat3 for chrismas.

No Matt stop doing hurricane voodoo on Florida!!!!

[brunota2003]

Just think its early decemeber this forms into a tropical storm. It heads southwestward becomes a cat3 hurricane by the 10th of December. moves into the Caribbean then moves up into Miami as a cat3 for chrismas.

then at the last second, shear weakens it into a weak TS!!!

[Damar91]

If that happens, I will not only eat crow, but anything that anybody can come up with! I normally would say anything is possible, but unless God has other ideas, that would never happen this time of year.