The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Here are my unofficial thoughts on the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season next year. I just wanted to share my take on things, including on activity trends and what we may expect next year.
I think next year we will transition back more into a Cape Verde season. Out of the years we have been in since the active cycle first started in 1995, eight out of ten of those years up until 2005 have had AT LEAST one Cape Verde storm that was named east of 40W. The only exception was in 1997, in which we had a strong El Nino year which resulted in very few (only seven) named systems in the Atlantic Basin that year, plus one subtropical storm. The other exception is, of course, 2005. Out of the years from 1995 up to the present, seven out of ten of those years has had more than one Cape Verde system that was named east of 40W. That, plus the patterns and oddities of this year compared to and added up with other factors, likely mean a transition back into more of a Cape Verde system next year, with more of an "evening out" of shear/favorable conditions, making the eastern Atlantic more conducive for tropical development and, in turn, Cape Verde storms. This may also lessen the impacts of or result in a more typical, milder, and earlier SAL that will not inhibit development as significantly as this year (2005).
I also think that next year we may shift VERY SLIGHTLY towards more threats to the eastern coast of the U.S. (e.g., eastern Florida from Key West to Jacksonville, the Carolinas, the Northeast, and New England). Many seasons with Cape Verde storms (a good example is 2003) has had more eastern storms from the Cape Verde region threaten Bermuda or the eastern U.S. coast. During years like this, we may (although it is not a given) see Cape Verde storms have a greater chance to threaten the U.S. or Bermuda (e.g., Isabel or Fabian from 2003 and Frances from 2004) or, at least, parallel the coastline or go out to sea, depending on how big the influence of the ridge will be. I think the shift, as I said, will be slight. I am also not saying the ridge will be weaker next year. I am just saying that we may see a very slight less influence in Gulf of Mexico storms providing Gulf coast threats and shift a bit more to Cape Verde or other storms threatening the eastern U.S. coast. However, I still think we will see at least some Gulf storms next year, and the Gulf coast threats will likely remain. Again, I think the shift will be VERY SLIGHT.
Finally, here is my thoughts on activity/number of storms next year. If there is no El Nino (or La Nina) next year, I expect around, at least, 15 to 16 named systems, at least 10 to 11 hurricanes, and around 4 major hurricanes. If there is a La Nina, the numbers will likely be higher. If there is a slight El Nino, the numbers will likely be slightly lower. If there is a moderate to strong or very strong El Nino, the numbers will likely range from moderately lower to much lower than predicted (or shown) here. Although I expect 2006 to be slightly or not quite as active as 2005, I expect it to be above average and very active, possibly coming close to 2005 in numbers. This is a frightening, but very possible, possibility.
Those are my thoughts. Comments and opinions are welcome!
I hope my warning does not come true and that a welcoming heap of crow will await me next year, although I have to be honest and say my TRUE thoughts on 2006.
. Interesting
