MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/SWRN PA TO PORTIONS OF WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 251240Z - 251745Z



...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SRN WV. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN VA BY LATE AFTN...DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN WV...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SNOW RATES IN THIS ZONE. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
COOLING /NOTED VIA COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN IR IMAGERY/ WILL FAVOR
SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS AT 1215Z EXTENDS FROM CKB/BFD/ELZ...BUT THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY ELEVATION CHANGES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES VIA AGGREGATE EFFECTS.

MODEL SOLNS DIFFER WITH THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARMEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHILE THE RUC IS THE COLDEST.
TREND OF THE 06Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER
RUNS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TYPE TO RAIN AFTER 17-18Z.

..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 10/25/2005

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY / NRN VT / NRN NH / NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 251659Z - 252200Z



HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS REGION.

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY IS LARGELY BEING
DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS BEEN MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN NH WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT PIVOTS NWD/NWWD AHEAD OF
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS
OCCURS...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
DEEPEN...WITH MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DYNAMIC COOLING
OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO DROP TO BELOW 1000 FT THIS EVENING WITH
THE CONTINUANCE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND
WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME / NRN NH / NRN VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 252316Z - 260415Z



HEAVY WET SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HRLY RATES
NEAR 1 INCH.

BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN ME INTO ERN NH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID MEASUREMENTS ARE
AVERAGING 0.10-0.15 IN/HR WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ROUGHLY 1 IN/HR
SNOWFALL RATES. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 500 FEET...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE OVER NWRN ME AS WELL AS NRN NH WHERE
HIGHER TERRAIN EXISTS.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CO...SRN WY AND NERN UT ABOVE
6000 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

VALID 141816Z - 142315Z



HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SRN WY...NERN UT...AND MUCH OF NRN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HRS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO SERN ID WILL
MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WY/NERN UT INTO NRN CO THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FROM 3-4
HRS...WHEN STRONG FRONTAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERLAYS STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT
REGION OF STRONG/DIGGING MID-UPPER JET MAX NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN
UT/SERN ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NLDN DATA CONFIRM THREAT
FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST AND
DEEPEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW THAT WILL TURN NNWLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL FAVOR WRN/NRN UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SRN WY/NERN UT AND MUCH OF NRN CO AROUND
00Z...AND OVER CENTRAL CO ROCKIES BY 03Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/IA/EXTREME WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 151930Z - 160030Z
   
   ...AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA
   WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS
   AFTN...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z INDICATES SFC LOW JUST WEST OF STL WITH AN
   INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR DSM/MWM/DTL. WARM FRONT IS
   MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. VERY STRONG
   MID LEVEL JET NOW ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
   100 KT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
   ACROSS NRN IL/LAKE MI TONIGHT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1-2 MB
   PER HOUR/ ARE NOTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. 
   
   ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW /PER
   LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES/ A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL
   PROMOTE RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
   THE ETA SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE TWIN CITIES
   SWD TO RST/ALO BETWEEN 21-23Z. SNOW MAY BEGIN EARLIER AT SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS /IE MS RIVER BLUFFS/ OWING TO THE SHALLOW WARM
   LAYER. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
   AFTER 16/00Z...SNOW RATES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH PER HOUR.
   THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
   WHICH RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   45219647 40599588 40569307 41939148 42889099 43739113
   44579158 45109242 45299299

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 170011Z - 170615Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE
   SEASON...
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED
   ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO/MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IN NRN LOWER MI. LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
   AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO
   NNW...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
   SNOWBAND BUT ULTIMATELY DISRUPT ORIENTATION. SHORT TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z/21Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE BANDS
   WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
   TO AREAS SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ONGOING
   STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE...RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY THU MORNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 11/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
   
   44088550 44138623 45178631 45428445 45168371 44488383

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR WRN MA...VT...NH...WRN/NRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 221301Z - 221800Z



HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ADIRONDACK AND
CATSKILL MTNS OF ERN NY THROUGH 16Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING FROM 2000 FT TO AROUND 5O0 FT BY 18Z. FURTHER EAST...HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VT/NRN NH AND THE BERKSHIRE MTNS OF FAR
NWRN MA BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT
IN WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA BY 18Z. TOTAL DURATION OF HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 4 HRS IN THE CATSKILL MTNS...BUT COULD BE
FROM 6-8 HRS IN THE ADIRONDACK...WHITE/GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MTNS. HVY
SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
/ABOVE 1500 FT/ OF NRN/WRN ME. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY GREATER
THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM AND
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SERN VA NNEWD INTO NRN VT. MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALLOWING FOR
A FOCUSED 30-50 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION WERE
AROUND 2500 FT BASED ON 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z REGIONAL
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z CAR AND ALB SOUNDINGS.

TWO FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH NEWD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AT 12Z WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
THUS...DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
FACTOR ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS MORNING. WITH
TIME...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE
DRAMATIC LOWERING IN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN NJ WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING
THE MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER ERN NY AND WRN/NRN VT.
ADDITIONALLY...A GRADUAL REORIENTATION TO NORTH-SOUTH OF THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE LONGEST DURATION /6-8 HRS/ OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE IN A NARROW ZONE /50 MILES WIDE/ OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA AND ECENTRAL NY THROUGH 19Z.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY / VT AND WRN NH / WRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 221820Z - 222245Z



SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR ARE LIKELY.

TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY NEWD...WITH N-S BAND OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING
UP OVER VT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION/BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN CHAMPLAIN AND
HUDSON VALLEYS AND INTO VT AND WRN MA...WHERE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 18Z
INDICATE 0.10-0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES ARE
POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING 1 IN/HR WET SNOW RATES.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND SNOW WILL BE MOST
PROLONGED.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...DEVELOPING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 232239Z - 240445Z
   
   MDT TO HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER
   UPPER MI BY AROUND 00Z...AND WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI
   TOWARDS 06Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...BECOMING HEAVY NEAR AND AFTER 06Z.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STABLE TRANSVERSE ROLL CLOUDS ARE ERODING
   ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF 22Z...INDICATIVE OF RAPID
   COOLING IN SFC-700MB LAYER AND INCREASING LAKE RELATIVE INSTABILITY.
   RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 5-8 C AND STRONG NLY WINDS
   ACROSS THE LAKE SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH A
   LARGE SHIELD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORMING QUICKLY OVER THE U.P. OF
   MI. GIVEN 0-1 KM MEAN WIND VECTORS OF 330/40KT...LONG EFFECTIVE
   FETCH INTO NRN MI...AND LAKE SURFACE TO 700 MB TEMPERATURE
   DIFFERENCES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 30-35 C...PARTICULARLY HEAVY
   NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. 4KM WRF-NMM MODEL RESOLVES MULTIPLE BANDS WITH
   HEAVIEST ACROSS ERN MARQUETTE...ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND DELTA
   COUNTIES IN UPPER MI...EXTENDING SEWD TOWARDS TRAVERSE BAY INCLUDING
   ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...WITH OTHER BANDS INTO LUCE AND
   CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN THE U.P.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   45948760 46808979 47288883 47448794 47098691 46918531
   46468434 45738403 45248384 44798406 44238496 44498587
   45378655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/NW LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 240655Z - 241300Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADDITION TO 20-40 MPH WINDS...
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS BANDS OF
   SNOW...NONE OF WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT.
   VAD WIND DATA FROM MARQUETTE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM GREEN BAY
   INDICATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNWLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO
   10-12K FEET BY 12Z. GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...ONE OR TWO PLUMES MAY FORM WITH A
   FAVORABLE NW FETCH FROM NRN LAKE MI. IF THAT HAPPENS VERY HEAVY SNOW
   RATES ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. LAKE RELATIVE
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   45308725 46178885 47488857 47578755 46508494 44968327
   43828337 43288470 43278626

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL
   PA...WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241237Z - 241830Z
   
   ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE
   ERIE INTO WRN NY...
   
   LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
   WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW
   PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
   RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY
   OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA
   FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW
   LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
   LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES
   TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST
   FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD
   ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO
   NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY
   LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER
   TODAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750
   40887829

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN
   IND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 241238Z - 241845Z
   
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE
   THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
   CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND
   CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL.  HERE...A
   FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD
   ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE
   TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION
   HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. 
   
   GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/
   CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
   DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN
   LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY
   SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER
   FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS
   ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN
   LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL
   MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591
   45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241627Z - 242030Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM MA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL NY
   AND SRN PORTIONS VT/NH THROUGH 21Z.  2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD
   DEVELOP WITHIN 75-90 NM S OF CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS VT/NH AND NWRN
   MAINE. RATES LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY OVER S
   FACING SLOPES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT INTERCEPT OPTIMAL OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT AMIDST 35-50 KT LLJ.  HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OVER ERN
   NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND INLAND PORTIONS CT/RI DURING
   PERIOD.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN MA INVOF
   BOS...MARINE FRONT NEWD ALONG COAST TO NWRN BAY OF FUNDY AND INTO
   SERN NEW BRUNSWICK...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SSEWD PAST CAPE COD OVER
   ATLANTIC...AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
   SRN CT INTO SERN NY.  SFC FREEZE LINE IS PACKED WITHIN COASTAL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL
   COUNTIES OF MAINE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE.  MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MOST OF
   VT...CENTRAL/NRN NH AND NWRN MAINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING...BUT
   WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS.  EXPECT INTENSE LOW
   LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP -- AND MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE NW-NE OF SFC LOW AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALONG
   COASTAL FRONT. VEERING OF 850 MB FLOW WITH TIME WILL INDICATE SHIFT
   OF STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EWD FROM VT INTO NWRN
   MAINE...WHILE STRONG ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
   46517000 46286930 45666861 45006847 44736914 44506975
   44187039 43497125 43317152 43597228 44097288 44787302
   45017300 45007151 45137142 45227142 45307125 45247116
   45357098 45217087 45387079 45427080 45427075 45387063
   45427063 45487072 45607062 45737036 45807040 45927024
   45957023 45977032 46077030 46147023 46217027 46357021

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   VICINITY
   
   CONCERNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRENDS
   
   VALID 241714Z - 242315Z
   
   HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SWRN MI. FARTHER SE
   INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MOSTLY SHOWERY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
   EXPECTED OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WITH HEAVIEST INTO FAR SWRN NY
   DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO INCREASING OVER NWRN PA LATE. IN
   ADDITION...ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
   FROM LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TOWARDS 00Z.
   
   VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD WITH MOST RAPID COOLING
   NOW COMING INTO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HVY SNOW OVER NERN OH AND
   NWRN PA...WIND FIELDS ARE DIVERGENT AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING
   FOR DISORGANIZATION AND SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER
   N INTO THE BUFFALO AREA BUT WILL BE HEAVIER DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE
   MOIST FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO. THIS ENTIRE REGION SHOULD
   SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
   LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ORIENTED ALONG LONG AXIS OF LOWER
   LAKES...AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
   ONTARIO NEAR 00Z AFFECTING OSWEGO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN
   NY.
   
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ORGANIZED BANDS WILL PERSIST OVER NRN
   LOWER AND CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
   DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E SHORE OF
   LAKE MICHIGAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SNOW
   SHOWERS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   41018097 41517898 42097789 42387630 43357535 44317556
   44178075 44868310 46398493 47168594 46828754 46228766
   44388649 43468646 42398642 42178593 41958531 42908504
   43208505 43808495 43308370 42878107 42528062 42198166
   41608249 41258224

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY IN NWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250108Z - 250715Z
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   THE NIGHT...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DROPPING
   SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
   LIKELY GIVEN SURFACE FLOW OF 20-40 KTS COMING OFF THE LAKE.
   
   DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS FORMED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN
   PART DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE FETCH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON. AT
   THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARDS GEORGIAN
   BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AS THIS
   TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW APPROACH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AS
   RADAR SHOWS MAIN BAND LIFTING NWD ACROSS OSWEGO INTO SRN JEFFERSON
   COUNTIES AS OF 01Z.
   
   AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
   ENHANCED. DIURNAL LAND BREEZE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AS
   WELL...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS
   SLOWLY NWD AFFECTING PRIMARILY JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH
   ABOUT 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH
   PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BAND BACK S
   PREDOMINATELY INTO OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44307624 44337586 44317573 44057520 43737512 43417514
   43357562 43417617 43447652 43547769 43697824 43957802
   44187679

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0842 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250242Z - 250845Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0803 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250203Z - 250800Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250205Z - 250800Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ORE/ERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 250642Z - 251245Z
   
   ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AREAS OF FZRA...
   
   A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OR
   SFC FRONT. INSPECTION OF THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM SPOKANE INDICATES
   AN INVERSION...WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE 850MB AND A SHALLOW COLD
   LAYER NEAR THE SFC WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WEAK
   WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
   INVERSION. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   FROM LINCOLN CO SWD TO UMATILLA CO IN NE ORE. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT
   PERIOD OF FZRA TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF SPOKANE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   
   
   WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY
   OVERNIGHT. SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN WA
   AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL ORE...AND SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO 32F OR BELOW
   ONCE PCPN BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST FZRA
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 2000 FEET/ WILL HAVE SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...
   
   45901845 44311962 44372167 46622105 47892010 48251771
   48001700 46211702

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 270823Z - 271215Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED
   
   FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI.  DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD
   RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN
   OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER
   PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F.
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY
   LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.  RAPID AND WIDESPREAD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA
   SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION.  SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z.  HOWEVER...PRIOR
   TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE
   FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
   SPREADS NWD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988
   45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392
   44409591