Prelimary Katrina storm surge hindcast

[MGC]

Source US Navy.

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/KATRINA/notice.pdf


These timeline are based on HRD wind data. Interesting time line of surge of Katrina. I do not agree with HRD wind analysis with max winds near Biloxi/Ocean Springs. I have been all along the coast and without question the worst wind damage is where the eyewall made landfall in western Harrison County not in extreme eastern Harrison County. Anyone who lives here on the coast or has spent a signifant amount of time here after Katrian would agree with me on the wind damage. Trees and roofs ripped off don't lie. Ocean Springs looks quite well for getting Cat-3 winds while Pass Christian that only recieved Cat-2 winds (according to HRD) is trashed......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

I also agree with that. However, Ocean Springs may have slightly better construction, since it received heavy damage from Georges.

That said, without question based upon aircraft and radar data, the max winds were between Gulfport and Pass Christian

[MGC]

Dereck, you really must pay us a visit over here and see first hand the damage. I really think it would benefit you in the future as a forecaster.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

havnt seen MS in person... but did see the middle keys in Marathon. While the structures remained in tact, the tidal surge gutted nearly every structure, leaving piles and piles of debris along the side of the road. People happy just to have a dry bed. It was much worse in Key West, which I did not see.

To know how close we came to Antitem types of casualties in the Keys had a negative effect upon me. The eye wall missed Key West by just 5 miles, sparing them just barely of the cat 3 conditions of 125 m.p.h. winds, giving them cat 1 instead... yet they were still devastated. Also saw Lauderdale, though I do not beleive I went through a cat 2 sustained area.

I learned something the hard way this year... the historic record may not be meaningful since the damage we are seeing does not match up with hurricanes supposedly of the same intensity before. For one thing, I am not going to be citing any previous hurricanes as an example, expect in peer reviewed publications, before 1998, the first year that the record became reliable

[MGC]

I must totally agree with you last paragraph Dereck. The damage just don't match up against hurricanes of previous seasons. I would have thought that as time progressed that damage would decreas due to better building standards, materials and construction methods. I guess I was wrong......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

just to further show how the damage has not matched up... here are some photos from near Lake Okeechobee, which received sustained cat 2 conditions

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/wilma/29927721.jpg

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/wilma/29927733.jpg

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/wilma/29927727.jpg

this is the type of damage that has been experienced in hurricanes that has been classified as 3's and 4's, which has affected our perception as to what a legit cat 2 can do

[MGC]

Yep, many storms in the past were over rated. Thanks to the GPS sondes and eyewall wind profiles. This will likely result in a decreased yearly average of major hurricanes.....MGC

[f5]

speaking of storm surge what is the offical number FEMA said 35 feet unless NOAA and NHC say something different otherwise?

[MGC]

FEMA said 35 feet in west Pass Christian. From my observation I'd say this is very close to the actual surge. Don't know what the NWS or NOAA or anyone else is saying. I guess it depends on who is holding the measuring tape.....MGC

[f5]

when Jim Cantore was in Gulfport he said 37 feet hes a pro meterologist he knows how to seperate the water rise itself vs crashing waves

[Derek Ortt]

you need an physical oceanographer to make the final determination, which I know NOAA has plenty of. Many ocean phenomenon are not obvious

[MGC]

This Navy report was prepared by the Navy folks at Stennis. There are many oceanographers employed there.....MGC

[wxmann_91]

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