Will Delta become our 14th Hurricane?

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WILL DELTA REACH HURRICANE STATUS?

YES, 100% SURE!
16
36%
NO, 100% SURE!
6
14%
MAYBE, 50/50%!
22
50%
 
Total votes: 44
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HURAKAN
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Will Delta become our 14th Hurricane?

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:16 pm

Delta could continue to intensify and it's just 14 miles short of becoming our 14th hurricane of the season. What do you think? Will it make it?

OPINIONS ARE WELCOMED.

THANKS IN ADVANCE.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:18 pm

It's going to be close, max 60-65kts. It will very likely be dependent on the analysis of the data that comes in and the reports they get from buoys and ships in the area, as it always is with these kinds of storms.
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superfly

#3 Postby superfly » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:31 pm

No way, the water temperatures don't support it and shear is high.
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:34 pm

Nope, don't think so.
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Weatherfreak000

hah

#5 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:20 pm

I guess Vince was just a fluke to you guys too right? :roll:



Shear will be decreasing in that area soon plus it's moving into higher SST's.


Given the convection it has now and the warmer waters decreasing shear if I were a betting man i'd say Yes.
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Coredesat

#6 Postby Coredesat » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:27 pm

I voted 50/50. If the shear diminishes somewhat, it has a good chance. However, the shear could take its toll early on and weaken Delta before it moves into more favorable conditions.
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Re: hah

#7 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:40 pm

I guess Vince was just a fluke to you guys too right? :roll:


Though I don't disagree with your conclusion, Vince was a fluke.
Last edited by SamSagnella on Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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krysof

Re: hah

#8 Postby krysof » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:41 pm

SamSagnella wrote:
I guess Vince was just a fluke to you guys too right? :roll:


Vince was a fluke.


or was he?
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Forecaster Colby

#9 Postby Forecaster Colby » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:41 pm

I said yes, since I think it's somewhat stronger than the advisory intensity.
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Weatherfreak000

Re: hah

#10 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:55 pm

krysof wrote:
SamSagnella wrote:
I guess Vince was just a fluke to you guys too right? :roll:


Vince was a fluke.


or was he?



Seriously....




How do you come to that conclusion in I may ask, Sam?
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superfly

#11 Postby superfly » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:10 pm

How was Vince NOT a fluke? That's the better question.
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Forecaster Colby

#12 Postby Forecaster Colby » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:57 pm

Vince was a fluke, but everything this year has been. Have we ever seen a storm like Katrina before? You could well have said that was a fluke, until Rita. Frances last year could be called a fluke, but Jeanne showed up shortly thereafter.
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#13 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:11 pm

superfly wrote:How was Vince NOT a fluke? That's the better question.


My thoughts exactly...

A) Vince formed really really far north and east
B) Vince spent its entire lifespan over water under 24/25C
C) Vince was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Spain
D) The very fact that we even used the name "Vince" is a fluke

I really don't see any valid arguments supporting the notion that V was not a fluke.
Last edited by SamSagnella on Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MiamiensisWx

#14 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:12 pm

So you believe in weather modification, SamSagnella?
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#15 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:14 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:So you believe in weather modification, SamSagnella?


I'm not sure I follow.
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MiamiensisWx

#16 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:15 pm

I don't really believe in it, either, SamSagnella. However, what do you mean exactly when you say that Vince is a fluke? Do you mean that it is incredibly odd, unusual, rare, and has never happened before?
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#17 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:21 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I don't really believe in it, either, SamSagnella. However, what do you mean exactly when you say that Vince is a fluke? Do you mean that it is incredibly odd, unusual, rare, and has never happened before?


Yeah, that's exacly what I mean.

And you can just call me Sam. :wink:

EDIT: And Catarina was DEFINITELY a fluke. :darrow:
Last edited by SamSagnella on Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:22 pm

If Vince was a fluke then so was Catarina. Both were small, originated from extratropical gale centers, peaked at Cat 1, had a clear eye, and occurred in otherwise frigid SST's. Lee would be my true definition of a fluke.
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#19 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:59 pm

You dont discount anything in 2005.
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#20 Postby mike815 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:13 pm

Yes it will become a hurricane even if it is breifly im very close to 100% sure. I never say that either.
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