This is the latest information on Bertie. In the latest advisory they expect strengthening to 115KT and the current intensity is 105KT.
SW Indian Ocean: TD Alvin Ex-Bertie
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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MiamiensisWx
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MiamiensisWx
Here is the latest advisory on Bertie...
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.8S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.0S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.8S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 90.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, THE STEERING
INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE ANTICYCLONE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN THE INTERIM, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
BUT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.8S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.0S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.8S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 90.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, THE STEERING
INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE ANTICYCLONE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN THE INTERIM, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
BUT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
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Forecaster Colby
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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TheEuropean
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P.K.
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Can't find the 6am update:
WTIO30 FMEE 230017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT.
60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY
FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL
ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE.
BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS
FOR A
WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING
WESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.=
WTIO30 FMEE 230017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT.
60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY
FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL
ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE.
BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS
FOR A
WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING
WESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.=
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P.K.
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- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
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WTIO30 FMEE 231216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1200 UTC :
13.4S / 90.3E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/90.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/89.2E, MAX WIND=090KT.
36H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.8S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG
90E
AXIS. AFTER A LIGHT WEAKENING, SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AGAIN. IT IS
FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS
BEYOND, ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE
SYSTEM
SHOULD
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR
BECOMES
DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).=
NNNN
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1200 UTC :
13.4S / 90.3E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/90.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/89.2E, MAX WIND=090KT.
36H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.8S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG
90E
AXIS. AFTER A LIGHT WEAKENING, SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AGAIN. IT IS
FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS
BEYOND, ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE
SYSTEM
SHOULD
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR
BECOMES
DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).=
NNNN
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wxmann_91
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HURAKAN wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:Very impressive HURAKAN. Where did you find that image?
http://www.mtotec.com/
Thanks for the link.
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P.K.
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WTIO30 FMEE 231804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 90.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/24 06 UTC: 14.9S/89.8E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 18 UTC: 15.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT.
36H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 15.8S/88.0E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 15.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+, CI=6.0
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG
90E
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR
SMALL
AND WARM EYE, WE CAN NOTE SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING LAST
HOURS.
IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE
WINDSHEAR
INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).=
NNNN
Still no track image from Meteo France so I've updated it again.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5
2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 90.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/24 06 UTC: 14.9S/89.8E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 18 UTC: 15.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT.
36H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 15.8S/88.0E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 15.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+, CI=6.0
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG
90E
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR
SMALL
AND WARM EYE, WE CAN NOTE SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING LAST
HOURS.
IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE
WINDSHEAR
INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).=
NNNN
Still no track image from Meteo France so I've updated it again.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Finally sorted their website out. 
BULLETIN DU 24 NOVEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ALVIN EX-BERTIE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 935 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.6 SUD / 89.8 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3660 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.2S/88.2E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.6S/84.9E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.7S/81E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN DU 24 NOVEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ALVIN EX-BERTIE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 935 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.6 SUD / 89.8 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3660 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.2S/88.2E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.6S/84.9E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.7S/81E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
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WindRunner
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- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
That's just wonderful. Any reason why the hyphenation wasn't enough?
And why do they sometimes hyphenate and sometimes 'ex' it?
And why do they sometimes hyphenate and sometimes 'ex' it?
Last edited by WindRunner on Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
My fault for not typing it out properly. They hadn't actually given it a name offically until this morning.
BULLETIN DU 24 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL ALVIN EX-BERTIE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 945 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 14.8 SUD / 89.4 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3610 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 3 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.8S/88.2E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.1S/84.6E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.9S/80.6E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE VENDREDI 25 NOVEMBRE A 04H30 LOCALES
BULLETIN DU 24 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL ALVIN EX-BERTIE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 945 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 14.8 SUD / 89.4 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3610 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 3 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.8S/88.2E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.1S/84.6E
TEMPETE TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.9S/80.6E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE VENDREDI 25 NOVEMBRE A 04H30 LOCALES
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