95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

I am very surprised to wake up and not see the system already a sub or a tropical storm.However I can see this named later this morning or afternoon as the system continues to excibit all the caracteristics of a tropical entity.

[Cookiely]

I am very surprised to wake up and not see the system already a sub or a tropical storm.However I can see this named later this morning or afternoon as the system continues to excibit all the caracteristics of a tropical entity.

When will it reach warmer waters? When it does, is this going to go boom? At some point is it going to track west?

[WindRunner]

I am very surprised to wake up and not see the system already a sub or a tropical storm.However I can see this named later this morning or afternoon as the system continues to excibit all the caracteristics of a tropical entity.

So was I, but I have a feeling that 10am will give them enough time to do their stuff, and most likely have an upgrade.

[WindRunner]

Model plots (they might update within the hour):

[cycloneye]

I am very surprised to wake up and not see the system already a sub or a tropical storm.However I can see this named later this morning or afternoon as the system continues to excibit all the caracteristics of a tropical entity.

When will it reach warmer waters? When it does, is this going to go boom? At some point is it going to track west?

The system is sitting at around 24-26c not the normal warm temps to make a system grow but being the origin of it from a cold core system it not has to be over 28c.This will not move towards the western atlantic as the front now in the western atlantic will grab it to the NE towards Europe.

[P.K.]

This will not move towards the western atlantic as the front now in the western atlantic will grab it to the NE towards Europe.

Not with the 1040hPa high currently over the UK which is going to move out into the mid-Atlantic it won't....

[Weatherfreak000]

YET AGAIN, the NHC does a frustratingly annoying job with classifying systems.



You know I get it, when the storm is not a threat toland you wanna steer away from scary classifications. BUT WHAT ABOUT LEE? NO THREAT TO LAND. Is the NHC trying to tell me i'm looking at an INVEST that's putting TROPICAL STORM Lee to shame?


Bull, anyone with functioning eyeballs and a brain can see this was a storm a full 12 hours ago. Even the record breaking Vince had to go through the same situation and for what....so one of the forecasters could see his family for a day?


I like how the NHC takes money out of our pockets to do a mediocre job at best with the classification of hybrid systems. I can hand them the intensity forecasting but Wilma was still their red flag to shapen up.


I just don't get it.....I really don't.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051123 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051123 1200 051124 0000 051124 1200 051125 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 40.9W 24.8N 39.6W 23.6N 37.0W 24.3N 34.4W
BAMM 27.2N 40.9W 26.0N 39.9W 25.4N 38.4W 25.5N 37.7W
A98E 27.2N 40.9W 24.5N 40.7W 22.8N 39.2W 23.5N 35.6W
LBAR 27.2N 40.9W 25.4N 39.8W 25.4N 38.2W 27.3N 36.3W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051125 1200 051126 1200 051127 1200 051128 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.4N 33.3W 28.0N 31.9W 30.5N 26.1W 29.2N 8.0W
BAMM 25.7N 38.0W 26.8N 39.1W 30.4N 39.6W 34.2N 40.1W
A98E 25.2N 33.3W 25.1N 28.9W 26.2N 24.4W 26.6N 19.0W
LBAR 29.1N 36.0W 32.0N 37.3W 32.7N 39.3W 32.5N 37.7W
SHIP 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 31.2N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 250NM RD34NW = 300NM


I dont know how more they will wait to iniciate advisories.

[HURAKAN]

It looks worse now than it did last night!

[Weatherfreak000]

Of course NOW the outlooks will start hinting that even though it was on a strengthing period and I must have seen that SAME OUTLOOK copy and pasted at least twice.

[P.K.]

That model run above has been reposted but with starting conditions of 982hPa.

[jimpsummers]

JB to TPC: "Delta is ready when you are"! lol One of the better one-liners I've seen...

[cycloneye]

That model run above has been reposted but with starting conditions of 982hPa.

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051123 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051123 1200 051124 0000 051124 1200 051125 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 40.9W 24.8N 39.6W 23.6N 37.0W 24.3N 34.4W
BAMM 27.2N 40.9W 26.0N 39.9W 25.4N 38.4W 25.5N 37.7W
A98E 27.2N 40.9W 24.5N 40.7W 22.8N 39.2W 23.5N 35.6W
LBAR 27.2N 40.9W 25.4N 39.8W 25.4N 38.2W 27.3N 36.3W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051125 1200 051126 1200 051127 1200 051128 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.4N 33.3W 28.0N 31.9W 30.5N 26.1W 29.2N 8.0W
BAMM 25.7N 38.0W 26.8N 39.1W 30.4N 39.6W 34.2N 40.1W
A98E 25.2N 33.3W 25.1N 28.9W 26.2N 24.4W 26.6N 19.0W
LBAR 29.1N 36.0W 32.0N 37.3W 32.7N 39.3W 32.5N 37.7W
SHIP 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 31.2N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 250NM RD34NW = 300NM


Thanks P.K. for pointing that out.

[WindRunner]

That model run above has been reposted but with starting conditions of 982hPa.

And for once it didn't make a difference in the track, speaking of which, I don't remember a TC ever landfalling in Morocco before! That would be interesting . . .

[KatDaddy]

I think we will finally see Delta at 10AM. It looks very good on satellite this morning.

[Coredesat]

The way it's looking now, if it's not upgraded sometime today, it won't be upgraded at all. The center's exposed on the southwestern side.

[P.K.]

As I said before it isn't coming over this way so Morocco should be safe. All of the global models keep the high pressure in the mid-Atlantic out to T+180 with this system drifting N towards the end of that forecast period.

Some of the models here, although at T+180 it is really in FI.

[sponger]

Okay so after Delta is named we can dig up the season is over thread again! 2005 you have shocked and humbled us all!

[HURAKAN]

It seems nothing at 10 AM either.

[cycloneye]

I think we will finally see Delta at 10AM. It looks very good on satellite this morning.

Well nothing at 10 AM EST.They may be waiting for the system to have the center more to the center of the convection not where it is at the SW edge to then upgrade.