SW Indian Ocean: TD Alvin Ex-Bertie

#61 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:54 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0041UTC 22 NOVEMBER 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal nine degrees South [10.9 S]
longitude ninety decimal nine degrees East [90.9 E]
Recent movement southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds 70 knots.
Central pressure 965 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 70 knots near centre decreasing to below 64 knots by
22/1200UTC.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 1200UTC 22 November: 12.4 south 90.1 east
970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 23 November: 13.5 south 89.5 east
980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 22 November 2005.

WEATHER PERTH

Forecaster Colby · #62 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:38 pm

Beautiful!

Pinhole eye? :eek:

#63 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:01 pm

YES, IT LOOKS NICE!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #64 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:17 pm

Its strengthing instead of the weaking the BOM is saying...

JamesFromMaine2 · #65 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:47 am

Looking really good! I wish we had a cyclone like that here in the open atlantic to track! lol

#66 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 3:29 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0639UTC 22 NOVEMBER 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal eight degrees South [11.8 S]
longitude ninety decimal five degrees East [90.5 E]
Recent movement southwest at 10 knots.
Maximum winds 80 knots.
Central pressure 955 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 80 knots near centre decreasing to below 64 knots by
23/0600UTC.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles of centre, winds above 34 knots with rough to very
rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

At 1800UTC 22 November: 13.0 south 89.5 east
960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 23 November: 14.2 south 88.8 east
970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 22 November 2005.

WEATHER PERTH

#67 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 7:54 am

Next advisory will be in French.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1249UTC 22 NOVEMBER 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 15 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal nine degrees South [11.9 S]
longitude ninety decimal four degrees East [90.4 E]
Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds 85 knots.
Central pressure 945 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 90 knots near centre.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 120 nautical miles of centre, winds above 34 knots with rough to very
rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

At 0000UTC 23 November: 13.1 south 89.5 east
940 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 23 November: 14.2 south 89.1 east
940 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.

The next warning will be issued by La Reunion Meteorological Service.

WEATHER PERTH

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #68 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 9:10 am

Here's the webpage for Meteo-France: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/#

With Bertie crossing the 90° line, her JTWC number (03S) will remain the same, but her official RSMC number (01U) will change (05R).

Furthermore, with the change in official RSMC number, the name will change from Bertie to Alvin.

Anonymous · #69 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 10:40 am

I think Bertie/Alvin is making a run at Cat 3/4 status (SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE)

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #70 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 10:55 am

Forecaster Colby · #71 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:24 am

945mb...and 80kt? What is going on there?

#72 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:26 am

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND
SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.11.2005

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTIE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5S 91.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.11.2005 10.5S 91.0E MODERATE

12UTC 22.11.2005 11.9S 90.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.11.2005 13.1S 88.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.11.2005 13.7S 87.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.11.2005 14.0S 86.8E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.11.2005 13.9S 85.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.11.2005 14.0S 83.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.11.2005 13.5S 82.0E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.11.2005 13.7S 79.9E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.11.2005 13.1S 77.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

#73 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:32 am

Forecaster Colby wrote:945mb...and 80kt? What is going on there?

Remember it is the pressure gradient force that controls the wind speed rather than the absolute central pressure.

#74 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:33 am

Forecaster Colby wrote:945mb...and 80kt? What is going on there?

The Indian and Pacific Ocean have lower pressures than the Atlantic Ocean. That's why if you see the Dvorak scale, it has different pressures for the Atlantic and for the Pacific for the same intensity.

Code: Select all

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  

  CI        MWS         MWS         MSLP           MSLP          Saffir-Simpson   
Number    (Knots)      (MPH)     (Atlantic)    (NW Pacific)         Category     
 1         25 KTS      29 MPH                                     (Approximate)
 1.5       25 KTS      29 MPH      
 2         30 KTS      35 MPH      1009 mb        1000 mb
 2.5       35 KTS      40 MPH      1005 mb         997 mb
 3         45 KTS      52 MPH      1000 mb         991 mb
 3.5       55 KTS      63 MPH       994 mb         984 mb
 4         65 KTS      75 MPH       987 mb         976 mb        1  (64-83 KTS)
 4.5       77 KTS      89 MPH       979 mb         966 mb        1  (64-83 KTS); 2  (84-96 KTS)
 5         90 KTS     104 MPH       970 mb         954 mb        2  (84-96 KTS); 3  (97-113 KTS)
 5.5      102 KTS     117 MPH       960 mb         941 mb        3  (97-113 KTS)
 6        115 KTS     132 MPH       948 mb         927 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 6.5      127 KTS     146 MPH       935 mb         914 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 7        140 KTS     161 MPH       921 mb         898 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 7.5      155 KTS     178 MPH       906 mb         879 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 8        170 KTS     196 MPH       890 mb         858 mb        5  (136+  KTS)

#75 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:34 am

P.K. wrote:
Forecaster Colby wrote:945mb...and 80kt? What is going on there?

Remember it is the pressure gradient force that controls the wind speed rather than the absolute central pressure.

NRL says 954 mb and 90kts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=NOV&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=03S.BERTIE&PROD=geo&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ir&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20051122.1600.meteo5.x.ir1km_bw.03SBERTIE.90kts-954mb-118S-905E.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc06/SHEM/03S.BERTIE/ir/geo/1km_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=sh032006.05112212.gif&ATCF_NAME=sh032005&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PRODUCT=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw

#76 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:35 am

NRL aren't releasing advisories on it though. Officially it is 85kts with a central pressure of 945hPa.

#77 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:38 am

P.K. wrote:NRL aren't releasing advisories on it though. Officially it is 85kts with a central pressure of 945hPa.

True, these small compact storms that wound up fast are very interesting.

#78 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:42 am

If this is still seen as 85kts in just over an hour then it will be in the "Cyclone Tropical" classification, although it would only been 8kph off Cyclone Tropical Intense status.

Forecaster Colby · #79 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:04 pm

Even using the west pacific numbers, this should be a 100kt.

#80 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:33 pm

Those are only general guidance though. Also that list will be in one minute averages so it won't correlate with the BOM's advisories.

SW Indian Ocean: TD Alvin Ex-Bertie

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