95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

How is that subtropical? No deep convection within a parsec of the center...

Maybe the core itself is becoming tropical, remember that many tropical storms or cyclones, as a whole, like GAMMA was, doesn't need to have convection around the center to be named a tropical storm. We always look for convection to develop around the center in this extratropical lows because that's a clear indication that the system is at least trying to become tropical.

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM EDT TWO:

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Islands is moving little. This system is gradually acquiring
tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any
time. Additional information on this system can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.


TROPICAL STORM DELTA COULD FORM ANYTIME!!!

The key word is anytime so maybe later this afternoon we can have Delta.

[HURAKAN]

11:30 AM EDT TWO:

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Islands is moving little. This system is gradually acquiring
tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any
time. Additional information on this system can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.


TROPICAL STORM DELTA COULD FORM ANYTIME!!!

The key word is anytime so maybe later this afternoon we can have Delta.

They are most likely saying, "get your tracking maps ready and a good chair to sit, because at 4 PM we would have TS Delta."

[cjrciadt]

It has convection, It is pretty well defined.

[superfly]

NHC is probably waiting for one more ST classification from dvorak estimates to make sure the last one wasn't an abberation.

[cycloneye]

NHC is probably waiting for one more ST classification from dvorak estimates to make sure the last one wasn't an abberation.

Something like this right?=ST 3.0/3.0 Atlantic Ocean 95

We will know soon what T numbers it gets at 17:45-18:00 UTC.

[Forecaster Colby]

I wonder what effect the nor'easter will have on it?

[cjrciadt]

Has switched to 95l
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[Coredesat]

The nor'easter would shear it to death and/or absorb it, more than likely. That's probably a couple days away, though.

[Forecaster Colby]

I'm not so sure about that. The nor'easter is weak at the upper levels, I think it's possible that Delta could absorb it.

[cjrciadt]

[CHRISTY]

looks pretty good! the most incredible season ever continues....

[cycloneye]

ATLC STORM WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 31N40W 985 MB NEARLY STATIONARY WILL MOVE SSW
10 TO 15 KT IN 6 HOURS. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN 210
NM OF LOW WINDS 35 TO 50 KT SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 360 NM SW QUADRANT...240 NM S
QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 18
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27N41W 991 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. ALSO WITHIN 180 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
26N39W 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SEAS 12 TO
19 FT

The above is the High Seas Forecast.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM A 985 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 31N40W
TO 14N39W TO 8N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THE STORM CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 31N28W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
27N34W TO 20N40W TO 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W...AND AROUND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. THIS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY IS ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.


Special Feature Discussion at 1 PM EST.

[DESTRUCTION5]

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM A 985 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 31N40W
TO 14N39W TO 8N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THE STORM CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 31N28W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
27N34W TO 20N40W TO 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W...AND AROUND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. THIS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY IS ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.


Special Feature Discussion at 1 PM EST.

It is one now...Delta is here whether it gets named or not...

[JamesFromMaine2]

where can I get the T numbers from?

[cjrciadt]

where can I get the T numbers from?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html#ATL

[JamesFromMaine2]

where can I get the T numbers from?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html#ATL

thanks

[Forecaster Colby]

I'm going to initiate advisories, have any models been run recently on this thing?

[P.K.]

22/1745 UTC 30.9N 40.4W ST2.5/2.5 95