Wilma's strength still under review, weather experts say

[Derek Ortt]

the winds over the Lake should be higher than over land winds. I was referring to the over land winds. The reason for this is that the coefficient of friction is much higher over land than water. Therefore, the lake values are always higher and really do not represent winds over land.

[WxGuy1]

I agree with the notion that people, besides grossly overestimating wind speeds, TEND to WANT to think they survived something horrific. It's been known for a while in the severe thunderstorm arena that the 'general public' has a consistent tendency to overestimate wind speeds. Oh yeah, as others have said, the SS scale is based on sustained wind speeds, not peak gusts.

I think there was another article a few weeks ago that addressed my second thought -- folks have a tendency to want to think they experienced (and survived) something worse than actually happened. I'm sure there's a fancy psychological term or concept for it, but I do know it's a known tendency. It sounds much better to think and say that you survived a cat 3 than a cat 1. In addition, it doesn't really help that, in the vast majority of time, only a tiny fraction of the hurricane-warned area ever sees winds close to the "advisory" winds. There's a reason why so many are surprised that Cat 2 winds actually look like what they experienced... They say "heck, this was MUCH worse than previous storms", but then don't really realize that they probably experienced much weaker winds than the "max sustained winds" of the particular hurricane. This is especially true given that the max winds are usually confined to the coastal areas... If someone lives 30+ miles inland, they, in most cases, won't ever see anythign close to the advisory winds, unless that storm is particularly fast moving, which was the case for Wilma IMO.

[Forecaster Colby]

Yeah. Wilma didn't seem to lose much of any strength as she crossed the peninsula, given that she started a fairly rapid intensification just offshore too.

[Zackiedawg]

That explains it. What others said also explains it. However, I meant I think my area did NOT get Category Three SUSTAINED winds; I meant that my area may have gotten Category Three GUSTS, with sustained winds closer to around Category One or Category Two force.

I would bet anything that your area had Cat 3 gusts...I know I did, and most of Boca Raton did. I didn't mean to infer that you were wrong...I wasn't sure if you were referring to sustained or gusts. I've just gotten so used to hearing people mention cat 3 winds around town who assume that was the hurricane's strength here that I tend to be quick to correct them...people on these boards probably know better!

I truly do think we had sustained Cat 2 winds here in Boca Raton during the most intense portion of the front eye wall (you can see a very strong band sweep through on the radar image) and a shorter but even more intense portion on the back eye wall (again, the radar shows a very strong band sweep directly over Boca Raton in the back eye wall). Because we had those sustained winds for several minutes, I think the official sustained wind rating would be at Cat 2 for Boca...had any anamometer survived in the city! Unfortunately, Boca Police, Boca beach, and Boca airport all lost their readings due to either power outage or damaged equipment.

Even with areas that experienced official sustained winds at cat 2...many people still don't seem to understand that these don't usually last the entire hurricane. The sustained winds come for peak moments, lasting several minutes, but with less intense periods still more predominant during the entire passage of the storm. We all understand this, being enthusiasts and having gone through these storms personally...but I still have trouble explaining this to people around town.

I had the same problem explaining earthquake intensity to friends and coworkers when living in California. In 1992, there was a 7.2 quake in the desert east of Los Angeles...it was clearly felt throughout the L.A. area...and I kept hearing talk from people that we had just experienced a 7.2, and wow, wasn't it wild...or wow, if I can make it through that one, I can make it through anything. I tried to explain that being more than 100 miles from the epicenter, we likely felt no more than a 3-4 magnitude movement in our area...but over and over people kept referring to the big, bad 7.2. So when we had a 6.7 strike our area in 1994, and cause massive damage and destruction, many people thought they had just gone through the end of the world, or some kind of 10.0 magnitude quake. Even when they were told it was a preliminary 6.7, they were in denial. The difference between a 6.7 under their feet and a 7.2 100 miles away just didn't get through to them!

By the way, do you live in eastern Boca Raton, Zackiedawg?

Not quite east...I guess more 'central' Boca - I live off Military Trail, just west of the airport.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for responding, Zackiedawg. I agree with you. The Category Two sustained winds came at many times periodically throughout Wilma, with portions of lower (but still very strong) winds in-between the many periods when we had sustained Category Two winds. Did you notice that?

[Zackiedawg]

Absolutely. If I were to make an amateur guess based on observations, I'd say we started reaching tropical storm gusts around 7am, sustained tropical storm force maybe by 8:00am, and began reaching hurricane gusts by 8:15am. Our power went out around 8:00am. The first branches seemed to start going down around 8:15am, and by 8:30am we were at hurricane strength gusts, with some of them lasting several minutes. I'd guess the front eye wall seemed to have the weakest winds during lulls at 50-60mph, sustained winds around cat 1 most of the time, maybe 85mph or so, and occasional several-minute-long periods of cat 2 winds in the 100mph range. Throughout this time, there were much more powerful gusts, lasting just a few seconds, which felt like they were significantly more powerful than 100mph. I was outside for much of the eye wall, and had a chance to hear, see, and feel the wind and pressure from those gusts...the biggest ones buffeted me away from the wall I was leaning against like a suction effect and took my breath away a few times (I was against a wall on the lee side of the house from the wind approach). I hadn't experienced anything that powerful during last year's storms.

The eye came in around 9:40am, and lasted until around 11:40. It was never perfectly calm...it stayed windy, and streaked with grey clouds.

The back eye wall seemed to ramp up to hurricane strength by around 11:40am or so. It was less wet, and seemed to not last as long, but seemed to have much longer periods at sustained cat 2. Overall the back eye wall was significantly more intense, and more constant in its strength than the front eye wall, which had much more fluctuation in strength. I had to switch to the opposite side of the house to observe the back eye wall from the lee side...despite being sheltered against the house and with the winds going over the top of the house, I was rocked on my feet several times by swirling backgusts, had trouble holding the videocamera, and lost the air in my lungs several times. I actually felt unsafe outside during the back eye wall, and retreated into the house to film the remainder through the hurricane glass. By 12:30pm, the rain died abruptly, and the winds dropped to tropical storm gusts. The sky was crystal clear, and it was very cool. The last of the winds seemed to trail off by 1:30pm or so. If not for the debris and damage and lack of power, I'd say the weather after the storm was darn near perfect!

[AtlanticWind]

I Measured a pressure of 964 millabars at my loacation in Plantation , I was wondering what the lowest pressure readings were as wilma crossed the state?

[Stormsfury]

I have to injerject here, but Wilma was holding its strength very well across Southern Florida ... there was some interesting things to note along with this, and some reasoning to just why Wilma has so much punch and pounce even on the Western Side after the eye passed ... my half-sister lives in the West-Palm area and duly notes that after the eye passed, the storm was by far worse than the NE quad....

Wilma was undergoing some transformations ... first, the trough which has caught Wilma and accelerated it, began to entrain some modest amounts of cooler and drier air from the NW, which led to stronger mixing of boundary layer air especially NW of Wilma. I saw some amazing reports well away from the eye in the NW part of the storm, and storm video to confirm this idea ... this entrainment caused some baroclinic reactions in which microbursting was far more effective and efficient across this side of the storm and it's very very possible that some gravity wave formation may have also enhanced highly localized wind gusts ...

In essence, Wilma was a CAT 3 upon landfall ... and with its fast movement, and some transitional effects, seeing some extratropical characteristics coming into play as Wilma crossed Florida, Wilma did not lose much intensity across its 6 hours on land ... Wilma still had plenty of fuel to entrain in its bands (still a good inflow source off of three surrounding bodies of water, very warm to boot which also delayed the usual decay rate). Second, Wilma was still strengthening upon the time of landfall so that delays the reversal trend somewhat as well ... 3rd, Wilma's eye at this time was quite large ... 40 NM, and not readily as susceptible to weakening as the energy of the storm at this time covered quite a spance of real estate, another factor into slower than normal weakening rates ...

Post analysis of Wilma (and many of the storms this year) will likely be the hottest demand amongst weather enthusiasts and pro mets alike ... folks, this season (I hope) was our once in a lifetime event ...

SF

[sponger]

What I love is the term "most of SFL" Cat 2 winds hit two of the most densley populated hurricane prone counties, and because it missed Dade the NWS still says most. I have no doubt that Wilma will be classifed as Cat 2 when the final report comes out. I wasnt there for the storm but saw the immediate after effects that night.

SF thanks for the detailed opinion on Wilmas extra tropical transition, as not alot has been said on how that imapcted SFL.

[Forecaster Colby]

I wonder if the cold front let Wilma use some baroclinic energy?

[T'Bonz]

As I've said elsewhere, I think it was a 2, at least up in Coral Springs, Tamarac.

That is based on the damage that I've personally seen afterwards, which exactly fits the damage of a 2 as said on the NHC site for a cat 2. Our area didn't have cat 3 damage and it wasn't the cat 1 damage listed. (Up here, Andrew fit the cat 1 damage. I actually heard years ago that winds for Andrew got up to 90mph sustained back in 1992. I can tell you that just from direct observation, Wilma was stronger here than Andrew was. Note that's only for cat 1 Andrew up in N. Broward, not the monster that hit S. Dade.)

Funny how one gets used to things. Tarps seem so normal now and not exotic and strange.

[Stormsfury]

I wonder if the cold front let Wilma use some baroclinic energy?

yes I think so .. for some of the reasons I detailed above, but also caused a pinching or a tightening PG (pressure gradient) along the NW portion of the cyclone ...

SF

[Blown Away]

Sustained (mph) Highest Gust (mph)
Stuart: 124 Unofficial
PB/Martin Line: 82 114
Lake Okeechobee: 103 112
PBI Airport: 82 101
Ft. Lauderdale: 70 99
Miami: 67 92

**Info from NWS

Seems Cat 1 to 2 sustained winds with Cat 3 gusts would be close to the reality. I wonder if the eyewall moving off the east coast and intesifying brought the strongest winds to N PB County and Martin than the winds observed for S PB County and Broward. Damage was much worse S of West Palm, but that area did not get the brunt of Jeanne & Frances like the areas N PB County up through Ft. Pierce. Tree overgrowth, mobile homes, weak structures, and old roofs were handled last season from West Palm north. Wilma took care of these problems S of West Palm Beach.

[johngaltfla]

Based on the damage I saw, and no, I'm not an expert, I would think it was a Cat 3 just based on storm damage I've seen in the past. I was in Naples and Marco Island the week after the storm hit and it was bad. And Everglades City is a huge mess still.

[HurricaneBill]

Based on the damage I saw, and no, I'm not an expert, I would think it was a Cat 3 just based on storm damage I've seen in the past. I was in Naples and Marco Island the week after the storm hit and it was bad. And Everglades City is a huge mess still.

How was Marco Island in particular? I've heard some say it wasn't that bad and others say it got severe wind damage.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

the cat 2 winds were very isolated and contained to broward

My wife kept saying "well you got your hurricane, are you happy?" We got it pretty bad in Margate/Coral Springs.