Gamma bursting with convection.......

Website · #21 Postby **Brent** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:37 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I agree with jkt, Gamma looks more and more disorganized by the minute. It could be one of those few western Caribbean storms that dissipate over water.

Yeah... I don't think it'll make it to Cuba.

The shear is absolutely shredding it, and it's only going to get worse.

#22 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:37 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I agree with jkt, Gamma looks more and more disorganized by the minute. It could be one of those few western Caribbean storms that dissipate over water.

I really didn't expect much agreement. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Time will tell. Either way, nothing earth shaking.

CHRISTY · #23 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:39 pm

iam thinking if this were happening lets say 4 weeks ago then i think the US would have had another hurricane to deal with,but people we cant forget it its november 19 and conditions just continue to get less favorable for anything to develope. so two things SHEAR-- AND COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES.

Website · #24 Postby **Brent** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:40 pm

NHC 10pm forecast... even farther south and weaker.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

mike815 · #25 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:53 pm

yes it is this storm just really doesnt want to quiet. Its just junk.

beachbum_al · #26 Postby **beachbum_al** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:55 pm

Hey I just find it amazing that it is almost Thanksgiving, have had our first cold snap, and there is a storm named Gamma headed toward South Florida if it gets there. What a year!

Forecaster Colby · #27 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:38 pm

I'm amazed it's held its strength as long as it has...looking terrible given the center position.

fuzzyblow · #28 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:19 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:I'm amazed it's held its strength as long as it has...looking terrible given the center position.

That storm is drunk :double:

Forecaster Colby · #29 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:21 pm

It was out with the GFDL :lol:

#30 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:41 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Well, Memphis, I'm not saying I think she will become a 'Cane, but more likely a strong TS before she fizzles. She is drifting N at this time. There may be a surprise or two before this season ends.

Uhhh...No. She's not looking better tonight. Sometimes there more to cooling cloud tops than increased organization....as in this case. In this case there is increasing shear in the form of increasing divergence aloft...which enhances the upper vertical motion....thus you get more convective bursts...but that does not lead to deepening. There is also more speed divergence going on ahead of Gamma as the shear increases.

Gamma will NOT become a strong TS. Just because you see pretty red colors on the SSd page doesn't mean it's geeting it's act together...there are sometimes other reasons.

f5 · #31 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:43 pm

that shear is making Gamma look like a slice of pizza

#32 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:45 pm

f5 wrote:that shear is making Gamma look like a slice of pizza

And that slice is RIGHT where the max amount of divergence is occuring...which underscores my point...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Divergence aloft and convergence at the sfc leads to thunderstorms in the tropics.

f5 · #33 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:50 pm

i'm hungry i want supreme with 3 toppings :tailgate:

f5 · #34 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:53 pm

all she has to due is move east than she will be able to explode shear is ligth over to the east

Forecaster Colby · #35 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:00 am

The hurricane pizza:

Pizza - CDO
Crust - Cirrus Outflow
Cheese - Cumulonimbus
Pepperoni - Embedded votices
Sausage - Overshooting cloud tops
Peppers - Eyewall features
That weird little plastic thing - Eye

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:36 am

All right then. We'll see who's right. You are the only one thinking it will organize, even boca_chris admits it now, so you know its looking bad then...

Yes, Gamma is history...also this will be the end of the 2005 season....

Happy Thanksgiving all!!!

bahamaswx · #37 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:10 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

She is looking much better tonight.

On the contrary...looking worse IMO. The center is very displaced.

You missed the center by quite a bit there...

#38 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:46 am

dixiebreeze wrote:I think she will organize soon. Here's another view --

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Still think it's on it's way to a strong TS because of it's great organization?

wxwatcher91 · #39 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:05 am

Forecaster Colby wrote:The hurricane pizza:

Pizza - CDO
Crust - Cirrus Outflow
Cheese - Cumulonimbus
Pepperoni - Embedded votices
Sausage - Overshooting cloud tops
Peppers - Eyewall features
That weird little plastic thing - Eye

Forecaster Colby · #40 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:21 am

WTH? Why in the world aren't they dissipating it, that thing is dead.

Gamma bursting with convection.......

Re: Gamma bursting with convection.......

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