Gamma No Threat to FL

[Zadok]

This has got to be a bad joke!

Conditions in life in south florida from last year have changed. I realized that from going through Francis and Jeanne last year in Hobe Sound. Since then we have sold our property in hobe Sound and rented in West Palm Beach. Conditions in life have changed! Adapt!

[Blown Away]

As long as the LBAR track stays over me I'm not going to worry!

[Air Force Met]

I thought of another way to maybe put this into perspective.

If Arlene and Cindy (OK...maybe Cindy did reach min cat 1) did not reach Cat 1 in June/July...with conditions that are a whole lot better than what this system is going to be facing...then how is Gamma going to do it in mid November?

Think about it. Slow moving systems at the start of the season. Conditions were pretty good. Cindy was in July...and conditions were a lot better than what Gamma will be facing as it nears SFLO.

So...how will Gamma overcome massive amounts of shear and dry air to become a hurricane when Cindy couldn't overcome just a little?

Just to keep things into persective.

[SouthFloridawx]

I thought of another way to maybe put this into perspective.

If Arlene and Cindy (OK...maybe Cindy did reach min cat 1) did not reach Cat 1 conditions in the June...with conditions that are a whole lot better than what this system is going to be facing...then how is Gamma going to do it in mid November?

Think about it. Slow moving systems at the start of the season. Conditions were pretty good. Cindy was in July...and conditions were a lot better than what Gamma will be facing as it nears SFLO.

So...how will Gamma overcome massive amounts of shear and dry air to become a hurricane when Cindy couldn't overcome just a little?

Just to keep things into persective.

i'll give you the shear part... but, there is no dry air now.... just in the northern gulf

[Zadok]

Let me add. If you are in So. florida sell your property, rent and enjoy the hurricane ride. It is an event that most people don't see in their lives. Amazing! :D

[Sanibel]

I'm discounting all GFDL data due to its first major bust with TD27 while it was over the Lessers. GFDL failed badly in reading the cold negative environment ahead of TD27.

This present disturbance is all 93L. The center came up from 93L's position and is now back over water east of Belize.

It's awfully November cool here. I don't see more than a tropical storm out of this - but it is impressive, never the less, that we are talking another cyclone with the season so far gone...

[Air Force Met]

i'll give you the shear part... but, there is no dry air now.... just in the northern gulf,

I am not talking about dry air in the upper atmosphere...I am talking about dry air in the lower atmosphere...which is where all teh stable air is...which is what I have been talking about. Stratcu is a LOW level cloud...not upper level. That image you posted is an "UPPER" level image that shows moisture in the upper levels...near 400 mb's. The dry air that is going to get entrained is below 850mb.

So...there is a LOT of dry air...it's just not seen on the water vapor imagery because that shows the wrong level.

Edit: Please read my posts about the dewpoints in the central and sw GoM in the mid50's to low 60's and you will see that I am speaking of dry air in the lower atmosphere. Also please remember that water vapor imagery only shows moisture in the mid-upper levels.

[vacanechaser]

You may be right... However, I am not so sure... the temp difference may be what sets this thing off... lets remember that the core of a tropical system is warmer than the surrounding air... This colder air around it, may help set it off, at least to start... Its that temperature difference drives the system basically... Right now looks like it is holding its own...
/quote]

Right now it's in a mT airmass. When it moves north it will be in a cP (mod) airmass. The temp diff won't make a diff. The temp diff does drive it...but you have to remember, the REAL culprit in development is not necessarily temp delta...but instability caused by the delta. When this system gets out of it's warm envelope...it will move into a stable environment...represented by the strato-cu field. You see it every year in the EPAC. Even though the waters will be ok for sustaining development...the environment will be capped...and so will convection.

Basically "Gamma" will be mixing in a lot of dry air at the sfc....and that will cap the environment and cause the convective temp the skyrocket....which will basically mean the temperature difference will have to be a lot greater than will be available.

Good point.. didnt think about the instability that much for,,,, whatever reason... lol.. long day i guess..

thanx Air Force Met

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

[Damar91]

All that will hit south Florida is a rainy mess. Take it to the bank. All the pro-mets agree, and all of them can't be wrong.

[cjrciadt]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

Look at the sheer map in the offical thread. It will fall apart before it reaches you. Just expect more rain and some good gust nothing more.

[T'Bonz]

I'll worry about it if it looks like it's something over which I need to be concerned. Which means, for now, I'll keep a wary eye.

Sounds unlikely it would be more than a rainmaker or very mild T.S. though, based on what I'm reading.

The guy who said only ONE year til retirement. *sigh*. We have 10-15 before we can realistically retire and get out of S. Florida. If the next ten years are like the last two, not so sure I can take it. Wilma was incredibly hard emotionally on me and she was only a two!

I can't imagine what those folks up on the Gulf coast are feeling after Katrina.

[Air Force Met]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

What are you going to get "hit" with?

here we go with what?

I think you need to "shift" towards the reality of the situation that this is not going to "go" anywhere near "eekness"



When in doubt...have a look at some data and come back down to earth j/king with ya... "enhance your calm."

[Brent]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

How many times do we have to go through this? There is NO WAY this is anything more than a rainmaker if it does hit Florida... too much shear and dry air.

I feel like I'm talking to a wall.

[boca]

Boca_Chris I usually agree with you but this thing is starting to weaken and the cold cloud tops are warming.It might still head this way but as a normal nontropical low as it passes by us.

[Damar91]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

How many times do we have to go through this? There is NO WAY this is anything more than a rainmaker if it does hit Florida... too much shear and dry air.

I feel like I'm talking to a wall.

Be nice.... With that said however, you are right Brent. This thing is going nowhere fast!

[Brent]

Boca_Chris I usually agree with you but this thing is starting to weaken and the cold cloud tops are warming.It might still head this way but as a normal nontropical low as it passes by us.

That... and it still doesn't have a closed circulation, so it's not even Gamma yet, and it's most favorable conditions are here very soon. If it doesn't become something by tomorrow then it's never going to be anything...

[Brent]

models have shifted to a direct S. Florida hit as I expected....

here we go

How many times do we have to go through this? There is NO WAY this is anything more than a rainmaker if it does hit Florida... too much shear and dry air.

I feel like I'm talking to a wall.

Be nice.... With that said however, you are right Brent. This thing is going nowhere fast!

It's so frustrating... it's a lot of needless hype. I was nice earlier in trying to explain it.

[Damar91]

Oh, I understand, some people will think what they want no matter what. Even if someone such as yourself who does this for a living, says otherwise.

[Air Force Met]

Boca_Chris I usually agree with you but this thing is starting to weaken and the cold cloud tops are warming.It might still head this way but as a normal nontropical low as it passes by us.

That... and it still doesn't have a closed circulation, so it's not even Gamma yet, and it's most favorable conditions are here very soon. If it doesn't become something by tomorrow then it's never going to be anything...

Right...and like I said earlier...if Arlene and Cindy couldn't do it in the good part of the season in OK conditions...how is this going to do it in mid-November right before Thanksgiving in smoe really hostile conditions.

I really do WISH someone would answer that questions for me. But...I have a feeling that I won't get an answer other than a model said it (which also called for it to be a Cat 3 a few days ago...which was also hosed).